January 11, 2026•Last Updated: January 12, 2026
Key Takeaways
- Nakayama Turf: Hugely favors front-runners. Inside-drawn speed horses are holding on for wins, even at long odds.
- Kyoto Short-Distance Turf: The opposite of Nakayama. A strong bias for closers making wide, late runs. Horses with top final furlong speed are key.
- Nakayama Dirt: A classic front-runner’s track. Christophe Lemaire excels at positioning favorites near the lead to secure in-the-money finishes.
- Kyoto Mid-Distance Dirt: Tough closers are making an impact. Yutaka Take’s patient, late-charging strategy is perfectly suited to the current conditions.
- Tomorrow’s Edge: At Nakayama, bet on inside speed. At Kyoto, focus on horses with explosive late speed (fastest final 3F).
Nakayama Racecourse: Trends & Tactics
Turf Course: The “Inside & In Front” Advantage
The trend of front-running horses dominating the Nakayama turf is unmistakable, highlighted by the day’s main races.
Top 3 Finishers (Fairy S., Race 9 1800m):
- Race 11 (Fairy S. 1600m): The top three finishers were all positioned within the first four at the 4th corner and broke from inside-to-middle gates.
- Winner Black Chalice (5th fav) and 2nd place Big Curren Ruf (10th fav) both secured favorable, ground-saving trips near the lead.
- Race 9 (1800m): A wire-to-wire victory, with the 2nd place horse also tracking in second position throughout. A clear “can’t-catch-me” scenario.
Dirt Course: Stick to the “Speed” Fundamentals
On a fast dirt track, horses on or near the lead held a significant advantage and were difficult to run down.
Top 3 Finishers (Maiden Races, Pollux S.):
- In maiden races like Race 1 (1200m) and Race 2 (1800m), being in the top three at the 4th corner was essential to contend for the win.
- Even in the open class Race 10 (Pollux S. 1800m), the winner Kaze no Runner pressed from 4th position before taking command.
Betting Strategy:
Christophe Lemaire is highly reliable. He consistently places his mounts in forward positions, as seen in Race 7 (2nd), Race 8 (1st), and Race 10 (5th). Lemaire on a speed horse is a solid anchor for your bets.
Kyoto Racecourse: Trends & Tactics
Turf Course (Short): The “Wide Outside Closer” Strikes
In stark contrast to Nakayama, Kyoto’s short-distance races (1200m-1400m) were dominated by closers and deep closers.
Top 3 Finishers (Yodo Tankyori S., Race 3 1400m):
- Race 11 (Yodo Tankyori S. 1200m): Yutaka Take piloted Yabusame from the rear, unleashing a blistering 33.3s final 3F to win with a wide, sweeping move.
- Race 3 (1400m): The 1st and 2nd place finishers both came from 10th position or worse at the 4th corner, demonstrating a powerful closing bias.
Dirt Course (Mid-Distance): Tough Closers Prevail
While speed is generally favored on dirt, middle-distance races (1800m+) required stamina, allowing strong closers to get involved.
Top 3 Finishers (Race 1, Race 6):
- Race 1 (1800m): The winner, Kitano Shakar, made a mid-race move from 12th position to win going away.
- Race 6 (1800m): Similarly, Sunrise Bullet rallied from 8th at the 4th corner to claim victory.
Betting Strategy:
Yutaka Take’s signature “patient ride” is proving deadly. His wins in Race 11 and Race 1 show he has mastered the current slightly tiring, closer-friendly Kyoto track.
Recommended Strategy for Jan 12
Nakayama: Target Inside Speed That “Holds On”
| Target | Angle | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Turf 1600m – 2000m | Look for front-runners from gates 1-4, with odds of 10-1 to 30-1. Especially those who showed early speed but faded in recent starts. | The Fairy S. result proves that on this track, a less-talented horse with tactical speed has an advantage over a more popular closer. |
Kyoto: Bet on “Explosive Finishers”
| Target | Angle | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Turf 1200m – 1600m | Focus on horses whose last race’s final 3F time was in the top 3 of today’s field. These are horses who were waiting for the right pace setup. | Like in Races 3 and 11, horses can look beaten mid-race but win with a powerful late surge. This track allows for it. |
Jockeys to Watch
| Track / Course | Jockeys | Style |
|---|---|---|
| Nakayama Dirt | C. Lemaire, Takeshi Yokoyama | Aggressive, forwardly-placed rides that match the track bias. |
| Kyoto (All Courses) | Yutaka Take, Ryusei Sakai | Masters of their styles: Take for patient closing rides, Sakai for aggressive front-running tactics. |
Further Reading
Complete Guide to Nakayama Racecourse
An in-depth breakdown of all course characteristics.Cracking Kyoto’s Short-Distance RacesData analysis and trends for the Turf 1200m course.Horse Racing Data Analysis for BeginnersFrom the basics to advanced applications.
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