An in-depth prediction for the Sunrise Stakes at Nakayama Racecourse on Jan 5, 2026. Leveraging AI indices and bloodline analysis, we break down top contenders like Mac Alruin & Ambivalent to give you a winning edge.
Key Takeaways
Nakayama’s 1200m outer turf is a downhill sprint demanding sustained speed and power for the final steep incline.
Mac Alruin leads with a top AI Index of 79, possessing the ideal power and speed for Nakayama’s final hill.
Ambivalent enters in top form, with a Storm Cat lineage making him a strong fit for this course.
Horses with Storm Cat bloodlines show a high success rate on the Nakayama 1200m course.
Contents
Course Analysis: Nakayama Turf 1200m
The Nakayama 1200m outer turf course starts near the crest of a hill on the backstretch, leading into a continuous descent towards the 4th corner. This layout presents unique challenges:
- Sustained Speed: The downhill slope encourages a fast early pace, requiring horses to maintain high speeds for an extended period.
- The Final Incline: The short 310m homestretch features a steep 2.2m hill right before the finish line, demanding a final burst of power from already tiring horses.
With a ‘Good’ track condition and the B-course in use, a relatively fast race is anticipated.
Top Contenders: The AI’s Top 2 Picks
◎ AI Top Pick
Mac Alruin
Jockey: Keita Tosaki
AI Index
79
Proj. Odds: 2.2
- Bloodline Prowess: Sired by European sprint champion Blue Point. His lineage traces back to Giant’s Causeway and Storm Cat, a bloodline renowned for speed and power.
- Peak Condition: Clocked a sharp 68.2s for 5 furlongs in recent workouts, with a final furlong of 11.6s, indicating excellent form.
- Key Concern: The camp has noted a slight issue at the starting gate. A clean break will be crucial.
◯ Main Contender
Ambivalent
Jockey: Yukito Ishikawa
AI Index
55
Proj. Odds: 6.0
- Winning Momentum: Enters this race after a dominant victory in the Best Wish Cup on Dec 27, running on a short one-week rest.
- Course Suitability: Sired by Discreet Cat, also from the Storm Cat line, giving him a strong genetic predisposition for this course type.
- Condition: Despite the quick turnaround, the stable reports the horse is “full of energy” with no signs of fatigue.
Dark Horses & Special Data
Spotlight on the “Storm Cat” Lineage
A notable trend among the top contenders is the presence of Storm Cat blood, a potent American Northern Dancer line. This lineage is well-represented:
- Mac Alruin (Great-grandsire Storm Cat)
- Ambivalent (Grandsire Storm Cat)
- And I Love Her (Grandsire Storm Cat)
- Speed of Light (Damsire Storm Cat)
This bloodline’s high success rate on power-sprint courses like Nakayama 1200m makes these horses particularly noteworthy.
Underdogs to Watch
- Like a Flower: An AI-recommended longshot. The 52kg handicap is a significant advantage.
- Ashakataka: A front-runner who could cling on for a place if allowed to dictate the pace.
AI’s Final Verdict
Based on our proprietary AI logic, here is the final ranking and recommendation:
| Rank | Num | Horse Name | AI Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| ◎ | 3 | Mac Alruin | 79 |
| ◯ | 12 | Ambivalent | 55 |
| △ | 5 | Like a Flower | 52 |
| △ | 9 | Ashakataka | 48 |
| △ | 8 | Speed of Light | 44 |
| △ | 4 | Dover Hawk | 44 |
| △ | 2 | Dark Eclipse | 44 |
| △ | 11 | Isachil Seaside | 41 |
The index gap shows Mac Alruin as a standout, with Ambivalent as the main challenger. For exotic bets like Trifectas, casting a wide net for the third spot could be a profitable strategy.Get Final Betting Slips & Full Analysis Here
Related Articles
- Beginner’s Guide to Horse Racing Data Analysis
- From Basics to Advanced: Horse Racing Data for Novices
- Top 5 Ways to Get to Nakayama Racecourse
- Understanding Bet Types and How to Place Them
![[Win5 Guide 11/8/2025] 14 Horses to Watch with AI Index! Solid Bet Vendome or Longshot Kaz Gortys?](https://sp-ao.shortpixel.ai/client/to_webp,q_glossy,ret_img,w_300,h_200/https://keibastat.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/ChatGPT-Image-2025年11月8日-14_14_12-300x200.png)
english
english
english![[2025 Urawa 11R Momiji Tokubetsu Predictions] Data-Driven Analysis: Is Joe Toby the Lynchpin or Blazing Heat the Dark Horse? A Deep Dive into All 13 Runners](https://sp-ao.shortpixel.ai/client/to_webp,q_glossy,ret_img,w_300,h_200/https://keibastat.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/ChatGPT-Image-2025年10月30日-04_06_53-300x200.png)
english
english
english