Spotlight on Angolablack & Canela Fina: 2026 Nakayama Kinpai Analysis

January 3, 2026 / Updated Jan 3, 2026

We break down the key prediction points for the 2026 Nakayama Kinpai (GIII), the classic handicap race that kicks off the new horse racing year. In a competitive field where up-and-coming 4-year-olds clash with seasoned veterans, we analyze contenders, examining their pedigree, form, and suitability for the challenging 2000m turf at Nakayama.

Key Takeaways

• The 2026 Nakayama Kinpai is a tough handicap race held on Jan 4th at Nakayama Racecourse over 2000m on turf.
• Pedigree-wise, Angolablack (sired by Kizuna) boasts the power and stamina ideal for this course.
• Canela Fina, with a world-class pedigree and a four-race winning streak, has her team’s full confidence.
• In training, Angolablack has posted impressive times, signaling peak condition.
• Keep an eye on Grandia, Sirius Colt, and last year’s runner-up, Meiner Mohn, who are all in excellent form.

Race & Course Overview

The 75th Nakayama Kinpai (GIII) marks the start of the 2026 racing calendar on January 4th, held at Nakayama Racecourse over 2000m turf (right-handed, B course). Will the momentum of the rising 4-year-olds prevail, or will the experience of the older horses win out? This handicap race promises a thrilling contest.

The Nakayama 2000m course is notoriously tough, featuring a steep incline right after the start and another before the finish line. Winter track conditions demand both power and tactical skill.

Prediction Point 1: Pedigree & Course Fit

Angolablack (by Kizuna)

Expected favorite Angolablack (5F) is sired by Kizuna, known for producing offspring with power and stamina. The tough Nakayama course is a welcome challenge. Her dam’s sire, Rulership, also has a strong track record on this course.

Canela Fina (by Frankel)

Second favorite Canela Fina (4F) boasts a world-class pedigree (Frankel x Fortify). She enters her first graded stakes race on a four-race winning streak, and trainer Tezuka confidently states, “Nakayama will suit her.”

Kei Ai Sena (by Deep Impact)

The 7-year-old Kei Ai Sena (7H) is a son of Deep Impact. His dam’s sire, Smarty Jones, adds an American bloodline that complements with power. If the race pace favors front-runners, he’s a serious threat.

Prediction Point 2: Recent Training & Condition

An analysis of late December workouts provides insight into each horse’s readiness.

Angolablack (Miho – Ozeki Stable)

Rating: Excellent Condition
Posted an impressive time of 65.7-51.1-36.9-11.5 in a workout on the Miho Woodchip course on Dec 31. Comments like “sharp movement” and “fully prepared” indicate she’s in peak form despite a layoff.

Canela Fina (Miho – Tezuka Stable)

Rating: Sharp Movement
Clocked 82.8-11.8 on the Miho Woodchip course on Dec 31. Following an intense workout the week prior, her final prep was light and fluid. She is ready despite a short break.

Grandia (Ritto – Nakauchida Stable)

Rating: No Travel Fatigue
Grandia (7G), the fifth favorite, travels from Kansai with only a week’s rest, but showed a sharp closing kick of 11.2 on the Ritto CW on Dec 31. Reports note his “great coat” and “full of energy,” suggesting he’s improved.

Other Horses to Watch

• Sirius Colt: Calmer than in his previous race, showing a springy, powerful stride. He appears to be returning to top form.
• Meiner Mohn: Last year’s runner-up. Showed “upward trajectory” in his Dec 31 workout at Miho, judged to be in better condition than his last start.

2026 Nakayama Kinpai: Final Verdict

In this classic handicap race, factors like weight assignments and recent form will be critical. For final AI predictions, expert picks, and recommended bets, follow the link below.See Final Predictions & Betting Slips