Racing Content Specialist•January 12, 2026
Key Takeaways
AI Favorite: Dragon Wells is the overwhelming favorite with a predicted win rate of 30.5%.
Prime Pedigree: Dragon Wells’s “American x American” bloodline is perfectly suited for the Nakayama dirt course.
Dark Horse: Don Repulse is a strong contender with a 15.4% win probability, outclassing many rivals.
Course is Key: The Nakayama dirt 1200m demands early speed; handicaps and training will be decisive.
Shoshun Stakes 2026 Forecast Points
The Nakayama dirt 1200m course features a downhill start, which tends to create an intense battle for early speed. As a handicap race, the weight differences and recent form (training) will be the deciding factors.
Contender Analysis: The Unshakable AI Favorite “Dragon Wells”
The horse demanding the most attention is Dragon Wells (4-year-old colt, Ritto Training Center, trained by Fujiwara), who boasts an overwhelming 30.5% predicted win rate from our AI.
Pedigree
Sired by Frosted out of a dam by Eskendereya. His sire, Frosted, is from the Tapit line, inheriting the speed and power characteristic of American dirt racing. His dam’s sire, Eskendereya, is a son of Giant’s Causeway (a grandson of Storm Cat), creating a true “American x American” hybrid perfectly suited for the Nakayama dirt 1200m.
Recent Condition
In his final workout on the Ritto hill course on January 7th, he showed “vibrant energy” and responded well when pushed (B rating). Although he failed to find his rhythm in his last race (Myokenzan S) despite being the favorite, he appears to have regrouped and is in prime condition for this race.
The AI-predicted odds also have him as the top favorite, making him a highly reliable anchor for your bets.
Upset Potential: The Value Pick “Don Repulse”
A potential blind spot for bettors is Don Repulse (7-year-old colt, Miho Training Center, trained by Takagi), who has the second-highest AI-predicted win rate at 15.4%.
Pedigree
Sired by Discreet Cat out of a dam by South Vigorous. This is the quintessential dirt sprint pedigree. His dam’s sire, South Vigorous, is known for producing exceptionally strong dirt sprinters in both national and regional racing. At 7 years old, he shows no signs of decline due to his bloodline.
Recent Condition
On the Miho hill course on January 8th, he was pushed hard and finished level with his training partner, earning an “intensive training” evaluation. Despite a four-month layoff, he has been put through a rigorous training regimen. While he typically performs better after a tune-up race, his raw ability is top-tier.
Condition of Popular Pick “Gekizaru”
Gekizaru (7-year-old colt, Miho Training Center, trained by Aoki), projected as the second favorite, cannot be overlooked.
Pedigree
Sired by The Factor out of a dam by Afleet. This Mr. Prospector x Mr. Prospector cross gives him excellent sustained speed.
Recent Condition
In his workout on the Miho woodchip course on January 8th, he was pushed hard and showed “vibrant energy.” His finishing kick was strong for him, and his 56kg handicap is reasonable. Although his AI-predicted win rate is more modest (3.1%), he has the potential for an upset if the race develops in his favor.
Final Verdict
Considering recent training, pedigree suitability, and AI simulation results, Dragon Wells is the clear centerpiece. The key to a winning ticket will be how you combine him with value picks like Don Repulse and consistent performers like Los Angeles (sired by California Chrome) and Bebop (sired by Moanin).
Key Contender Comparison
| Horse | AI Win % | Pedigree Trend | Training Eval. | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dragon Wells | 30.5% | US Dirt Specialist (Frosted x Eskendereya) | B (Vibrant Energy) | The favorite, highly reliable anchor. |
| Don Repulse | 15.4% | Dirt Sprint Bloodline (Discreet Cat x South Vigorous) | Intensive Training (Level Finish) | High-value upset pick, top-tier ability. |
| Gekizaru | 3.1% | Sustained Speed (The Factor x Afleet) | Vibrant Energy (Good Finish) | Potential for an upset if the pace is right. |
| Los Angeles | – | Sired by California Chrome | – | A consistent performer. |
| Bebop | – | Sired by Moanin | – | Another consistent contender. |
For more detailed betting slips and the AI’s final high “expected value” longshots, check out the link below.
👇 Get Final Picks & Betting Slips Here
Related Articles
- Access Guide to Nakayama Racecourse
- From Basics to Application: Horse Racing Data Analysis
- Shoshun Prize 2025 Value Picks
- Complete Guide to Nakayama Racecourse: A Deep Dive into Course Features
