Shinshun Stakes 2026 Analysis : Mini Transat vs. Micki Jewelry A Deep Dive into the Top Contenders :The Shinshun Stakes (3-Win Class, 1600m Turf) on January 11, 2026, at Kyoto Racecourse is a key race for the future of the mile division. This article breaks down the contenders, course characteristics, and race dynamics based on data and pedigree.

By AI Racing Analyst•January 11, 2026

Key Takeaways

• The Kyoto 1600m (outer course) favors horses with a strong finishing kick, utilizing the downhill slope in the final turns.
• A medium pace is expected, benefiting horses that can maintain a good position and unleash explosive speed in the straight.
• The 4-year-olds, Mini Transat and Micki Jewelry, are central figures, both showing excellent form in recent training.
• Bellagio Bond is one to watch, expected to improve significantly in his second race after a layoff.

Race Analysis: Kyoto 1600m (Outer Course)

This year’s Shinshun Stakes will be run on the Kyoto Racecourse’s 1600m outer turf course (A-Course). The forecast is clear with a “Firm” track condition. This course is characterized by a downhill slope from the third to the fourth corner, allowing horses to build momentum for the final stretch. The long homestretch demands a powerful turn of foot, favoring horses that can sustain a late surge.

Pace & Strategy

With no standout front-runners in the field, a medium pace (M-Pace) is anticipated. This scenario reduces the likelihood of an overly aggressive early pace, favoring horses that can settle in a forward-to-midfield position, conserve energy, and deliver a strong finishing kick in the long straight. Pure closers will need a favorable pace setup, while front-runners lacking explosive speed may struggle to hold on.

Top Contenders Breakdown

Mini Transat (Colt/4)

Favored at 4.1 odds, Mini Transat steps up in class after a convincing win in the 2-Win class at this same course and distance. His recent workout was impressive, finishing ahead of his partner. Trainer Sugiyama is confident, stating he’s in “great condition.” As a son of Epiphaneia, he possesses a sustained finishing kick that is a perfect match for Kyoto’s outer course. He is undoubtedly a central figure in this race.

Micki Jewelry (Filly/4)

Second favorite at 4.7 odds, Micki Jewelry returns after a refreshing break. She was a narrow loser as the favorite in her last start, proving her class. Her recent track work was sharp, earning a thumbs-up from Assistant Trainer Fukunaga. Her elite pedigree (Epiphaneia x Deep Impact) suggests she’ll thrive in a race decided by explosive speed. With top jockey Yuga Kawada retaining the ride, expectations are high.

Bellagio Bond (Colt/5)

At 5.6 odds, Bellagio Bond boasts a solid record. Trainer Uemura notes a significant improvement in his sharpness and overall condition for this second race after a layoff. As a son of the great sprinter-miler Lord Kanaloa, he combines tactical speed with tenacity, making him a dangerous contender, especially if the race becomes a battle of attrition.

Dark Horses to Watch

• Weep Delight (Gelding/5): Sired by Duramente. Showed improved early speed with blinkers last time. With jockey Kohei Matsuyama, he could be a surprise package.
• King Maker (Colt/4): A son of Suave Richard. With the legendary Yutaka Take in the saddle, his aptitude for the mile distance will be put to the test.

Final Verdict

The Shinshun Stakes presents a classic clash between the up-and-coming 4-year-olds (Mini Transat, Micki Jewelry) and the proven older horses. Considering the firm track and training reports, the younger generation appears to hold a slight edge.See Final AI-Powered Picks & Bets →