By AI Racing Analyst•January 11, 2026
Key Takeaways
- The Kyoto 1600m (outer course) favors horses with a strong finishing kick, utilizing the downhill slope in the final turns.
- A medium pace is expected, benefiting horses that can maintain a good position and unleash explosive speed in the straight.
- The 4-year-olds, Mini Transat and Micki Jewelry, are central figures, both showing excellent form in recent training.
- Bellagio Bond is one to watch, expected to improve significantly in his second race after a layoff.
Race Analysis: Kyoto 1600m (Outer Course)
This year’s Shinshun Stakes will be run on the Kyoto Racecourse’s 1600m outer turf course (A-Course). The forecast is clear with a “Firm” track condition. This course is characterized by a downhill slope from the third to the fourth corner, allowing horses to build momentum for the final stretch. The long homestretch demands a powerful turn of foot, favoring horses that can sustain a late surge.
Pace & Strategy
With no standout front-runners in the field, a medium pace (M-Pace) is anticipated. This scenario reduces the likelihood of an overly aggressive early pace, favoring horses that can settle in a forward-to-midfield position, conserve energy, and deliver a strong finishing kick in the long straight. Pure closers will need a favorable pace setup, while front-runners lacking explosive speed may struggle to hold on.
Top Contenders Breakdown
| Horse (Sex/Age) | Odds (Popularity) | Jockey | Stable | Sire / Damsire | Latest Work & Comments | Key Point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mini Transat (Colt/4) | 4.1 (1st) | S. Yoshimura | Y. Sugiyama (Rit.) | Epiphaneia / Zenno Rob Roy | Rit.坂路 “55.3-40.3-25.9-12.5”. Trainer: “Returned to the stable in good shape.” | Steps up in class but has a potent late kick suited for Kyoto. |
| Micki Jewelry (Filly/4) | 4.7 (2nd) | Y. Kawada | M. Nakauchida (Rit.) | Epiphaneia / Deep Impact | CW “92.6-73.6-57.1-40.6-12.1”. Asst: “Good condition.” | Fresh from a break with a top-tier pedigree for explosive speed. |
| Bellagio Bond (Colt/5) | 5.6 (3rd) | Y. Kitamura | H. Uemura (Rit.) | Lord Kanaloa / Dubai Destination | Rit.坂路 “54.0-40.0-26.1-12.3”. Trainer: “Much improved for his second run.” | Poised to improve significantly; consistent and well-suited to the distance. |
Mini Transat (Colt/4)
Favored at 4.1 odds, Mini Transat steps up in class after a convincing win in the 2-Win class at this same course and distance. His recent workout was impressive, finishing ahead of his partner. Trainer Sugiyama is confident, stating he’s in “great condition.” As a son of Epiphaneia, he possesses a sustained finishing kick that is a perfect match for Kyoto’s outer course. He is undoubtedly a central figure in this race.
Micki Jewelry (Filly/4)
Second favorite at 4.7 odds, Micki Jewelry returns after a refreshing break. She was a narrow loser as the favorite in her last start, proving her class. Her recent track work was sharp, earning a thumbs-up from Assistant Trainer Fukunaga. Her elite pedigree (Epiphaneia x Deep Impact) suggests she’ll thrive in a race decided by explosive speed. With top jockey Yuga Kawada retaining the ride, expectations are high.
Bellagio Bond (Colt/5)
At 5.6 odds, Bellagio Bond boasts a solid record. Trainer Uemura notes a significant improvement in his sharpness and overall condition for this second race after a layoff. As a son of the great sprinter-miler Lord Kanaloa, he combines tactical speed with tenacity, making him a dangerous contender, especially if the race becomes a battle of attrition.
Dark Horses to Watch
- Weep Delight (Gelding/5): Sired by Duramente. Showed improved early speed with blinkers last time. With jockey Kohei Matsuyama, he could be a surprise package.
- King Maker (Colt/4): A son of Suave Richard. With the legendary Yutaka Take in the saddle, his aptitude for the mile distance will be put to the test.
Final Verdict
The Shinshun Stakes presents a classic clash between the up-and-coming 4-year-olds (Mini Transat, Micki Jewelry) and the proven older horses. Considering the firm track and training reports, the younger generation appears to hold a slight edge.See Final AI-Powered Picks & Bets →
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