Published on January 12, 2026
Race Highlights
Pace & Track Conditions
The New Year Stakes 2026 will be held on the Nakayama 1600m turf (Outer). With a firm track expected, speed will be a key factor. A slow pace is predicted, favoring front-runners and horses with a sharp turn of foot.
Fandom’s Return
Making his first start since the Japanese Derby, Fandom’s training has been smooth. He has a perfect record when racing fresh, making him a major threat despite the layoff.
Form Horses to Watch
Danon Airs Rock is in prime condition after a strong 3rd place finish in his previous race. Lilabonito enters in peak form after a 2nd place in the GIII Turquoise Stakes and posted a personal best in training.
Course Specialist
Daishin Yamato is a specialist at this course and distance, with all four of his career wins coming at the Nakayama mile. He’s a strong contender for a rebound performance on his favorite stage.
Article Contents
- Race Analysis: Course & Pace
- Key Contender Analysis
- Pedigree Insights
- Conclusion & Final Picks
- Related Articles
Race Analysis: Course & Pace
The Stage: Nakayama Turf 1600m (Outer)
The race is set on the Nakayama Racecourse’s 1600m outer turf track (C course). With the weather forecast showing “Clear” and the track condition as “Firm,” conditions are perfect for fast times and favor horses with natural speed.
Pace Prediction & Favorable Trends
The pace is projected to be slow (“S”), which typically favors horses that can maintain a forward position on Nakayama’s short home straight. Horses with tactical speed to secure a good position and those with a potent burst of acceleration will likely have an advantage.
Key Contender Analysis
| Horse | Sex/Age | Jockey | Notes & Comments |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fandom | C4 | Hiroshi Kitamura | First run in 7.5 months since the Japanese Derby (14th). Training well: “Showing strength, breathing is good.” Perfect record [1.0.0.0] when racing fresh. |
| Danon Airs Rock | C5 | Akihide Tsumura | Good form after a 3rd in the Rigel S. Condition maintained: “Movement and breathing have improved. He’s in good shape.” Shows powerful propulsion in training. |
| Lilabonito | M5 | Keita Tosaki | Excellent run for 2nd in the Turquoise S (GIII). Clocked a personal best in training with ease. “She’s in peak form right now.” High aptitude for Nakayama 1600m. |
| Daishin Yamato | H6 | Yutaka Yoshida | Course specialist with all 4 wins at the Nakayama mile. Trainer: “This is his best condition.” Shows powerful propulsion in training. |
Pedigree Insights
| Sire | Progeny | Pedigree Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Screen Hero | Lilabonito, Schilthorn | A bloodline with a proven track record at the Nakayama mile. Lilabonito, with Agnes Digital as her damsire, is well-suited for the power and stamina required at Nakayama. |
| Maurice | Danon Airs Rock | His dam’s side features Fastnet Rock (Danehill line), combining European power with top-class speed. |
| Saturnalia | Fandom | With Just a Way as damsire and Cardoun further back, this pedigree suggests a strong turn of foot over mile to middle distances. |
Final Verdict
The New Year Stakes is a classic puzzle: do you back the proven class horse returning from a break, or the in-form course specialist? The performance of Lilabonito, who is described as being in “peak form,” and the readiness of Fandom after his Derby campaign will be the deciding factors in this competitive race.
For my final analysis, selections, and betting strategy, follow the link below.Check Out My Final Predictions
Related Articles
Danon Airs Rock: The ¥495 Million Superstar
Exploring the high price tag and expectations.The Japanese Derby Challenge: Yutaka Take & FandomA look back at their journey to the classic race.New Year Stakes 2025: Physical Assessment & TrainingAnalysis from last year’s edition.Complete Guide to Nakayama RacecourseA deep dive into the track’s unique features.
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