NAKAYAMA RACECOURSE // JANUARY 4, 2026 : Junior Cup 2026 Predictions

Is it a two-horse race between the elite Salesio and the specialist Resort Island? We break down the top contenders for the Nakayama Mile.

Published: January 3, 2026 / Updated: January 3, 2026

Race Highlights

The Race

The Junior Cup, a listed race for three-year-olds, kicks off on January 4, 2026, at Nakayama Racecourse on the 1600m turf (outer course).

Course Bias

It’s the opening week, so the track condition typically favors front-runners who can establish an early lead.

Main Contenders

Focus is on Salesio, a well-bred colt, and Resort Island, sired by a Nakayama expert.

Top Contender Analysis: Three to Watch

[5] Salesio

Projected Odds

2.3

Sire: Epiphaneia

Dam: Salacia (by Deep Impact)

The main attraction. His dam, Salacia, was a G1 competitor, and his uncle is Satsuki Sho winner Salios. While he finished 6th in the Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes (GII), he was returning from a break and overweight (+24kg). Now in his second race back, camp reports state he’s “leaner and physically improved.” The Epiphaneia lineage provides the power needed for the Nakayama mile, making him the horse with the highest ceiling.

[4] Resort Island

Projected Odds

2.8

Sire: Isla Bonita

Dam: Edisberg (by Frankel)

The prime challenger. His sire, Isla Bonita, excelled at Nakayama, and his progeny often inherit this course affinity. He finished a strong second in the Hiiragi Sho (1-win class, Nakayama 1600m), just 0.4 seconds behind a high-caliber winner. The team is confident, noting his “potential for improvement and proven suitability for this course.” If he can secure a forward position, his consistency could give him the edge over Salesio.

[7] GT Shindo

Projected Odds

4.6

Sire: Orfevre

Dam: Vengo Go Go (by Dutch Art)

Entering this race after a convincing maiden victory. While the time wasn’t spectacular on a slightly heavy track, his running style was professional and efficient. Trainer Kurita praises him as a “well-balanced horse with good racing sense.” As a son of the explosive Orfevre, he has the potential to surprise. Despite his inexperience, GT Shindo is a compelling dark horse with a high upside.

Course & Pace Analysis

Nakayama Turf 1600m (Outer Course)

The Nakayama mile is unique due to its corner right after the start, making gate position and early tactics critical. The outer course features a short final straight, but the action intensifies from the third to the fourth corner. Key factors include:Pace & PositioningBeing the opening week of the meet, the turf is fresh. Front-runners and horses that can maintain a forward position typically have a significant advantage.Bloodline TrendsThis course demands a blend of power and sustained speed. Progeny of sires like Daiwa Major, Maurice, and Isla Bonita have a history of strong performances here.

Dark Horses & Sleepers

While the top contenders are strong, keep an eye on these potential spoilers:

• [2] Margot Blow: Switching from dirt but has experience on turf. Possesses good early speed and could hold on for a placing if the track favors front-runners.
• [8] Orai Kamon: Seemed to suffer from poor pacing in his last race. A smoother trip could see him bounce back and challenge the leaders.

Junior Cup 2026: Final Conclusion

This year’s Junior Cup feels like a clash between two philosophies: the raw potential of Salesio versus the course-proven reliability of Resort Island. The choice between “future star” and “current form” will be key. Watch the final odds and paddock condition to make the final call.See Pro’s Final Picks & Betting Slip