Key Takeaways
- ➤Lance of Chaos is the prime candidate after a commanding win in the Rigel S. Despite a weight increase, he’s in peak form and has room for improvement.
- ➤By bloodline, progeny of Silver State (like Lance of Chaos) and Leontes (like Buena Onda) show a strong affinity for the Kyoto mile course.
- ➤Final workouts reveal top condition for Lance of Chaos, Buena Onda, as well as Gaiamente and Trovatore.
- ➤For consistency, Buena Onda is a reliable choice. For a high-reward dark horse, Gaiamente is an intriguing contender in his first GIII race.
Table of Contents
3 Key Prediction Points
We dissect the three most critical factors for this year’s Kyoto Kimpai, drawing insights from recent race data and pedigree analysis.
1. Evaluating Momentum from the Rigel Stakes
Horses that performed well in the Rigel Stakes (L), held on the same Kyoto/Hanshin outer mile course, are strong candidates for this race.Lance of Chaos (4yo Colt, Jockey: Yoshimura)Won the Rigel S on Dec 13, 2025. Showed growth with a +10kg weight gain and delivered a stunning victory with a final 600m time of 33.1s from mid-pack. His jockey commented, “He can be even better if he slims down a bit,” suggesting further potential. Despite a 1.5kg weight increase to 57.5kg, this 4-year-old in his prime is a central figure.Yankee Barows (4yo Colt, Jockey: Iwata M.)Finished 9th in the Rigel S. His +16kg weight was seen as growth, not excess. Considering he was held back and the race didn’t unfold in his favor, a strong comeback in his second race after a layoff is a real possibility.
2. Kyoto Mile Affinity by Bloodline
The Kyoto 1600m turf (outer course) demands both speed and stamina. Here are the bloodlines to watch based on historical data.Silver State Progeny (Deep Impact line)Includes Lance of Chaos, Session, and Masano Canaria. Lance of Chaos, with Lohengrin as his damsire, is particularly bred for sustained speed, which could be a perfect match for the current Kyoto track conditions.Leontes Progeny (King Kamehameha line)Represented by Buena Onda. His classic dam’s sire, Deep Impact, gives him excellent mile versatility, proven by his recent 3rd place in the Capital S (Tokyo 1600m).Lord Kanaloa Progeny (King Kamehameha line)Includes Keep Calm. While his dam’s sire, Sakura Bakushin O, suggests a speed-oriented pedigree, he has performed consistently at 1600m-1800m. He possesses the power to handle the tough winter turf.
3. Identifying Top-Form Horses from Final Workouts
Based on the final workouts conducted on Wednesday, December 31st, these horses are showing excellent condition.
| Horse | Date | Track | Rating | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance of Chaos | 12/31 | Ritto Hill | Excellent | “Nimble movement.” Clocked the last furlong in 12.8s at a canter. Looks sharp. |
| Buena Onda | 12/31 | Ritto Hill | Excellent | “Maintains good form.” Timed 54.0-12.7. Prevailed in a paired workout. |
| Trovatore | 12/31 | Miho W-Chip | Excellent | “Impressive physique.” Excellent final kick at 86.1-11.4. Looks more powerful. |
| Gaiamente | 12/31 | Ritto W-Chip | Excellent | “Superior finishing speed.” Sharp acceleration at 83.9-11.2. Well-prepared. |
Top Contenders: Quick Analysis
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Lance of Chaos (J: J. Yoshimura)
Projected Odds: 1st Favorite (3.9x). His performance in the Rigel S was outstanding. The Silver State x Lohengrin pedigree seems perfectly suited for the current Kyoto track. The 57.5kg handicap is challenging, but given his current form, he has a strong chance to overcome it.
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Buena Onda (J: Y. Kawada)
Projected Odds: 2nd Favorite (4.6x). The most consistent horse in the field, rarely finishing poorly in graded stakes. His training reports confirm he’s maintaining the form that saw him place 3rd in the Capital S. Jockey Yuga Kawada’s skill is a significant plus.
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Keep Calm (J: R. Sakai)
Projected Odds: 3rd Favorite (6.1x). Although he finished 6th in the Fuji S (GII), he is a top-tier contender at the GIII level. His Dec 31st workout was described as “powerful despite the layoff,” suggesting he’s ready to perform well off the break.
☆
Gaiamente (J: Y. Kitamura)
Projected Odds: 4th Favorite (12.0x). Stepping up in class after a decisive win in the Doncaster C. His final workout was exceptional, showing incredible sharpness with a last furlong of 11.2s. He possesses the explosive potential for an upset.
For our final betting slips and detailed selections, please check our full analysis page. Let’s start the New Year with a winning ticket!
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