January 12, 2026 / Updated: January 12, 2026
The 2026 Keisei Hai, held on Nakayama’s challenging 2000m inner turf course, demands both tactical skill and raw power. This deep dive analyzes the field of promising but inexperienced 3-year-olds, focusing on key contenders Porphyrogennetos and Soraneluman. We’ll break down their form, training, and potential to conquer this crucial early-season classic trial.
Key Takeaways
- ✓Agility and power are essential for the Nakayama 2000m course.
- ✓Porphyrogennetos is a top favorite, showcasing high ability despite a troubled previous run.
- ✓Soraneluman, with jockey Lemaire, exhibits excellent race sense and front-running style.
- ✓Danon History possesses G1 potential but faces gate and temperament issues.
- ✓Final track work and paddock condition will be crucial deciding factors.
Contents
Race Analysis Points
This race, run over Nakayama’s 2000m inner turf, requires navigating four tight corners and conquering a steep final climb. Here are the critical factors based on this year’s field and historical data.
Course Fit & Maturity
With a field of lightly-raced 3-year-olds, adaptability to Nakayama’s demanding layout is paramount. Experience on a tough, undulating course is a significant advantage.
Importance of Training Form
As an early-year race, how horses have been conditioned through the holiday season is vital. Pay close attention to final furlong times and their fighting spirit in paired gallops.
Top Contender Breakdown
We’ve selected the most promising contenders based on their past performances and recent track work.
◎ Porphyrogennetos
#1
Miho Stables / Yajima
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Verdict | Rock-solid condition with proven course suitability. |
| Last Race | 2nd in Habotan Sho. |
| Workout | Miho Woodchip, Jan 8: 6F 84.5 – 1F 11.7 (Full work, “Exceptional final furlong,” sharp action). |
| Analysis | Jockey Tosaki noted “didn’t have a clear run, had more left in the tank.” Nakayama 2000m suitability is confirmed. High chance to win with Yutaka Take aboard. |
○ Soraneluman
#2
Miho Stables / Tezuka Hisashi
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Verdict | Strong, driving action with Lemaire in the saddle. |
| Last Race | Won Maiden race (Tokyo 2000m). |
| Workout | Miho Woodchip, Jan 8: 6F 84.2 – 1F 11.7 (Beat an Open class horse by 0.4s, “powerful stride”). |
| Analysis | Lemaire: “Ran at his own pace. More distance won’t be a problem.” Excellent race sense; a front-running style that suits Nakayama. |
▲ Danon History
G1 potential but hampered by gate and temperament issues. Lane commented, “Got restless in the gate, had to come from behind.” A major risk/reward play.
△ Tidal Rock
Showing improvement. Lemaire’s previous comment: “Couldn’t find space for his big stride.” If he gets a clear run, he could be a surprise package.
☆ Access
Impressive maiden winner with sharp track work. Won last race despite a slow start, showing a sustained closing kick. Jockey Kitamura is confident, stating “plenty of room for improvement.” Could be a potent closer.
Other Horses to Watch
- Akkan: Solid workout. Won the Hyakunichiso Tokubetsu on a trip to Tokyo, showing admirable grit that shouldn’t be underestimated.
- Green Energy: While noted for temperament issues in training, his explosive speed from his last dominant win is undeniable. Could handle the class jump.
- Elliptic Curve: Showed improvement in final work. Jockey Yokoyama stated he was too focused on rhythm last time; expect more aggressive tactics.
Final Summary
This year’s Keisei Hai appears to be a duel between Porphyrogennetos, who has demonstrated his class despite adversity, and the tactically astute Soraneluman. However, dark horses like the explosive newcomer Access cannot be ignored. Keep a close eye on the final workouts and paddock conditions to make your final selections. Good luck!
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AI Predicts the Keisei Hai 2025 Winner!Keisei Hai 2025: Pre-Race WorkoutsNakayama Racecourse Access GuideBeginner’s Guide to Data Analysis
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