by KeibaStats Editorial Team|January 15, 2026
Key Takeaways
- Top Contenders: A two-horse race is anticipated between the favorite, Solanel Man, and the second favorite, Porphyrogennetos.
- Course Dynamics: The Nakayama 2000m turf course, with its four corners, demands agility and tactical skill.
- Pedigree Trends: Multiple entries from sire Rey de Oro suggest that power and stamina will be crucial factors.
- Dark Horse Potential: Palladion and Access, both coming off strong previous performances, could upset the favorites.
Race Overview & Course Characteristics
The Keisei Hai, held on the same stage as the Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) at Nakayama 2000m turf, is a vital stepping stone for young horses aiming for classic glory in the spring.
The course is notoriously tough, featuring a steep incline immediately after the start and another demanding climb before the finish line. This layout requires not only speed but also the maneuverability to navigate four tight corners and the stamina to last the distance. Recent track trends on the ‘C’ course suggest an advantage for front-runners drawn on the inside, but the potential for closers to make a late surge cannot be dismissed.
Top Contender Evaluation & Workout Analysis
Here, we provide a detailed analysis of the leading contenders, considering their previous performances and recent training regimens.
Solanel Man (Jockey: C. Lemaire)
Sired by Fièrement out of a King Kamehameha mare, Solanel Man delivered an impressive victory in his last start, a 2-year-old maiden race at Tokyo (2000m turf), clocking a strong 2:00.0 on slightly heavy ground. His explosive closing kick, with a final 3 furlongs in the 33-second range, is a major asset. Under the expert guidance of Christophe Lemaire, and after conditioning at Northern Farm Tenei, he appears to be in peak condition despite the layoff.
Porphyrogennetos (Jockey: T. Yokoyama)
This well-bred colt by Satono Diamond is closely related to the champion mare Lucky Lilac. He showed promise in the Habotan Sho, finishing just 0.5 seconds behind the winner. As a large-framed horse, his powerful stride is well-suited to the steep inclines of Nakayama. His recent workouts have focused on building stamina with long, strenuous gallops.
Access (Jockey: Y. Kitamura)
A son of Kiseki, Access secured a commanding win in his debut race at Kyoto (2000m turf) with a time of 2:01.9. He demonstrated excellent race sense, not just leading from the front but showing the ability to settle in a good position and unleash a strong finish. Inheriting his sire’s stamina, he could thrive if the race develops into a test of endurance.
On This Page
- Race Overview & Course
- Top Contender Analysis
- Contenders & Projected Odds
- Dark Horse by Pedigree
- Final Predictions
- Frequently Asked Questions
Contenders & Projected Odds
Here is the list of expected entries for the 2026 Keisei Hai. Odds are projections and subject to change.
| Rank | Horse | Age | Weight | Jockey | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ◎ | Solanel Man | C3 | 57.0 | C. Lemaire | 4.4 |
| ◯ | Porphyrogennetos | C3 | 57.0 | T. Yokoyama | 4.6 |
| ▲ | Access | C3 | 57.0 | Y. Kitamura | 5.8 |
| △ | Green Energy | C3 | 57.0 | K. Tosaki | 7.4 |
| △ | Akkan | C3 | 57.0 | K. Ikezoe | 8.5 |
| ☆ | Palladion | C3 | 57.0 | Nishizuka | 16.9 |
Dark Horse Analysis by Pedigree
A notable feature of this year’s entry list is the presence of multiple offspring from the sire Rey de Oro (Elliptic Curve, Stella Space, Palladion, Pod Cross). Rey de Oro himself excelled on the Nakayama course, and it’s likely this suitability has been passed down to his progeny.
Palladion (maternal grandsire Special Week) is particularly intriguing. He possesses deep-rooted stamina in his bloodline and carries momentum from his maiden win at Kyoto. He is a horse to watch, even at long odds.
Final Picks & Betting Slip
Our final top pick (◎) for the Keisei Hai 2026, along with detailed betting slips (Trifecta, Quinella) considering final training conditions, will be revealed on our dedicated predictions page. Be sure to check it out for our conclusive analysis, factoring in last-minute paddock condition and horse weight.Check Out the Pro’s Final Verdict!Get Exclusive Picks for the Keisei Hai 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the post time for the Keisei Hai 2026?
The race is scheduled for Thursday, January 15, 2026, as the 11th race at Nakayama Racecourse, with a post time of 15:45 JST.Who is the favorite to win?
Solanel Man, ridden by Christophe Lemaire, is projected to be the top favorite.What are the race distance and course features?
The race will be run on the Nakayama Racecourse turf over 2000m (right-handed, C course). It’s a tough course with steep inclines right after the start and again before the finish line.
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