An in-depth analysis of the Kyoto Dirt 1200m, breaking down top contenders Z Yell, Rudick, and Shonan Abias for the first major race of the new year.
Race Overview
The Kadomatsu Stakes kicks off the 2026 racing year on the challenging Kyoto Dirt 1200m course, a true test of speed and strategy.
Favorable Traits
Course history favors horses with outside draws, powerful early speed, and strong American pedigrees known for stamina.
Top Contenders
Keep an eye on the powerful momentum of Z Yell, the elite pedigree of Rudick, and the proven track record of Shonan Abias.
Table of Contents
Kyoto Dirt 1200m: Key Prediction Points
The Kyoto Dirt 1200m, home of the Kadomatsu Stakes, features a unique starting gate on a turf surface, giving an advantage to horses in outside draws who can run on grass longer. The downhill slope towards the third corner allows horses to build momentum, often leading to an explosive speed duel in the final stretch.
Key factors for success include:
- Potent initial speed (early pace).
- A pedigree rich in American speed and stamina.
- A favorable draw and race flow that avoids getting boxed in.
With these points in mind, we’ll spotlight three top contenders from the field.
Top Contender Analysis: Speed and Momentum
#1 TOP PICK
1. Z Yell (4 y/o Colt)
Yoshida Stables (Ritō) / Sire: Thunder Snow, Damsire: Bago
Our top contender, with projected odds of 3.0 (1st favorite). Z Yell inherits immense power and speed from his sire, a two-time Dubai World Cup winner. He demonstrated this with a commanding victory in his last race, pulling away from the pack with ease.
Latest Condition:
Clocked 55.0-39.4-25.5-12.5 in a recent workout (12/31), earning a “maintaining peak form” evaluation. Assistant trainer Takashima notes he’s “easy to prepare and in great shape.” Despite moving up in class, his momentum is undeniable.
#2 CHALLENGER
2. Rudick (5 y/o Colt)
Takano Stables (Ritō) / Sire: Into Mischief, Damsire: Medaglia d’Oro
A formidable challenger with projected odds of 5.3 (2nd favorite). His elite American dirt pedigree (sire Into Mischief is a leading North American sire) makes him perfectly suited for the Kyoto 1200m.
Latest Condition:
Showed sharp acceleration in his 12/31 workout (54.0-39.4-25.1-12.2), earning a Grade “A (Prime Condition)” rating. Trainer Takano mentioned a dislike for kickback in his last race, but confirms “his condition is fantastic.” If he gets a clean run, he’s a major threat.
#3 PROVEN PERFORMER
3. Shonan Abias (6 y/o Colt)
Kato Stables (Miho) / Sire: Drefong, Damsire: King Kamehameha
A reliable and consistent force. His sire, Drefong, has produced numerous successful dirt sprinters in Japan, making him an ideal fit for this stage.
Latest Condition:
Despite traveling from Miho, he posted a strong workout (53.0-38.0-25.4-13.1 on 12/31). Trainer Kato stated his 5th place finish last time was due to being “stuck on the inside.” With a clear path and a previous strong performance at Kyoto, a bounce-back is highly expected.
Other Dark Horses to Watch
Generale (5 y/o Colt)An American pedigree (Sire: Army Mule). Trainer Nonaka commented, “It was a big gain that he could handle kickback while closing from behind,” showing his increasing versatility.Takanenohanakosan (6 y/o Mare)A large mare who improves with each race. Trainer Ogata noted, “Ideally she takes the lead, but she can compete if she gets a good forward position,” making the start crucial.
Kadomatsu Stakes 2026: Final Verdict
Will it be the surging Z Yell, the pedigreed Rudick, or a comeback from a proven contender? This New Year’s showdown at Kyoto is set to be a classic. My final selections and recommended bets are now available.
See the Final Predictions & Betting Slip
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