January 4, 2026 / Updated January 4, 2026
Article Highlights
- The “Hatsuhinode Sho” on Jan 5, 2026, is a 2000m turf race at Nakayama demanding both power and skill.
- Dantsu Fighter is the top contender, boasting the highest AI rating and excellent recent form and training.
- Well-bred Ducato is poised for a comeback after a disappointing last race, with strong course suitability.
- Keep an eye on longshots, including Taisei Ricordo returning from a layoff and dark horse Omega Imperial.
Race Overview & Strategy
The “Hatsuhinode Sho,” held on Monday, January 5, 2026, is the semi-main event at Nakayama Racecourse. This race, for horses aged four and up in the 2-Win class, is contested over 2000 meters on turf and serves as a traditional test of luck for horse racing fans in the new year.
The Nakayama turf 2000m (inner loop) is a notoriously tricky course. It features a steep incline right after the start and four tight corners. Additionally, the January track conditions are often tough and demanding, meaning pure speed isn’t enough to win. Power and tactical race sense are paramount.
A crucial point for handicapping is to assess the momentum of the newly turned four-year-olds against their suitability (both by pedigree and past performance) for the challenging Nakayama course.
Top 3 Contenders: In-depth Analysis
1. Dantsu Fighter (4-y-o Colt, Miho | Masashi Ebina Stables)
Projected Odds: 4.2 (2nd Favorite)
AI Top Pick Index: 65
- Previous Race: Dantsu Fighter, our AI’s top-rated pick (◎), is the leading contender. In his last start, the Kasumigaura Tokubetsu (2-Win class), he ran a strong second over a similar 1800m at Nakayama, proving he can compete at this level.
- Training: His training has been meticulous. He received a “superb condition” rating for his Dec 31 workout on the Miho woodchip course and has maintained that form in his Jan 3 hill work.
- Pedigree: Sired by New Year’s Day out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, his bloodline suggests a preference for power-demanding tracks. The tough winter turf at Nakayama is likely to be a significant advantage.
2. Ducato (4-y-o Colt, Miho | Miyata Stables)
Projected Odds: 3.6 (Favorite)
AI Index: 51
- Comeback Potential: Despite finishing a disappointing 9th in the Kasumigaura Tokubetsu, Ducato is still considered a top contender and the likely favorite. His last performance can be forgiven, as the race flow and track condition may not have suited him. Trainer Miyata commented, “He is moving well,” signaling renewed confidence.
- Pedigree: He boasts a stellar pedigree, being by Rey de Oro out of Cat Coin (by Stay Gold). His dam won the Queen Cup (G3) on this very course, and both his sire and maternal grandsire have excellent records at Nakayama.
- Training: His Jan 3 hill work at Miho was rated as “improving movement,” indicating he is returning to form.
3. Taisei Ricordo (4-y-o Colt, Ritto | Oguri Stables)
Projected Odds: 7.2 (3rd Favorite)
AI Contender Index: 58
- Proven Class: Returning from a 9.5-month layoff, Taisei Ricordo earns the AI’s second-highest rating (◯). In last year’s Wakaba Stakes (L), he performed well against horses that went on to succeed in graded stakes races. Trainer Oguri notes, “He’s grown taller and matured,” suggesting the time off was beneficial.
- Pedigree: By Gold Ship out of a Victoire Pisa mare, his breeding is geared for stamina and power. Progeny of Gold Ship tend to excel on the tough winter 2000m course at Nakayama.
Dark Horse to Watch: Omega Imperial
An interesting longshot is Omega Imperial (5-y-o Colt, Ritto | Yasuda Shogo Stables). With the Oaks winner Nuovo Record as his dam and sired by Kingman, he has a top-class pedigree. This will be his first race in six months, but his latent speed cannot be underestimated. The AI has marked him as a potential threat (△), and if the rest has done him good, he has a real chance to contend for a top spot.
Conclusion: The AI’s Final Verdict
While the Hatsuhinode Sho is shaping up to be a competitive race, Dantsu Fighter appears to have a slight edge based on a combination of recent stability and impressive training. However, a rebound from Ducato or a strong return from a talented horse like Taisei Ricordo cannot be ruled out.
For the AI’s final conclusion based on more detailed data analysis and specific betting recommendations from professional handicappers, please check a specialized racing information site.
View Final Predictions & Expert Picks
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