January 11, 2026 • Racing AI Analytics
Key Takeaways
- The Fairy Stakes is a vital prep race for the prestigious Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas).
- The tricky Nakayama 1600m outer course and the fillies’ inexperience are crucial predictive factors.
- Our analysis prioritizes workout form, suitability for the Nakayama mile, and recent race performance.
Contents
Key Prediction Points
Workout Performance & Conditioning
With the race scheduled early in the new year, a key factor is how well each filly has maintained her training regimen through the holiday break. Consistent, strong workouts are a major positive indicator.
Nakayama 1600m Suitability
Horses with proven form at the Nakayama course, or those like Gillie’s Ball whose jockey explicitly states “a mile is the perfect distance,” should be highly regarded.
Previous Race Performance
We’re comparing the unique strengths of each contender: the raw power of Valis Marineris who won on a soft track, and the proven stamina of Viscontessa who can sustain a long run.
Top Contenders: The Data
| Horse | Sire | Damsire | Last Race | Workout Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillie’s Ball | Epiphaneia | Fuji Kiseki | Won Nakayama 1600m debut despite trouble. | “Coming along nicely.” |
| Saint Antoine | Drefong | Harbinger | Won Tokyo 1400m 1-win class race. | “No concerns with late finish.” |
| Pied du Lapin | Epiphaneia | Lord Kanaloa | Won Tokyo 1600m maiden race. | “Showing good form.” |
| Black Chalice | Kitasan Black | To the World | 4th in Fantasy S. (GIII) despite losing a shoe. | “Moving well, not fully extended.” |
| Valis Marineris | Admire Mars | Dubawi | Dominant win on soft ground in Tokyo 1800m debut. | “Sharp and energetic.” |
| Viscontessa | Silver State | Orfevre | Won Kyoto 1800m maiden with sustained run. | “Fit despite break.” |
Gillie’s Ball
- Pedigree: Sired by Epiphaneia out of a Fuji Kiseki mare. Features a Sunday Silence cross, blending explosive speed with stamina.
- Last Race: Overcame early trouble in her September debut at Nakayama (1600m) to win with a sharp turn of foot. Jockey C. Lemaire noted, “A mile is the perfect distance for her.”
- Workout Evaluation: Despite a 3.5-month layoff, she posted a solid [54.1-39.4-25.1-12.0] at Miho. The report states she is “coming along nicely.”
Saint Antoine
- Pedigree: Sired by Drefong out of a Harbinger mare, with Sunday Silence in her maternal line.
- Last Race: Rallied from the rear in a Tokyo 1400m race, sweeping wide and winning a duel in the stretch. Jockey K. Tosaki praised her “explosive finish.”
- Workout Evaluation: Clocked [83.7-68.0-53.2-38.3-12.0] at Miho. Finished slightly behind her work partner but moved well, leading to the assessment: “no concerns with the late finish.”
Pied du Lapin
- Pedigree: A speed-oriented pedigree, sired by Epiphaneia out of a Lord Kanaloa mare.
- Last Race: Won her second start in a Tokyo 1600m maiden race. Showed improved tractability, though still a bit keen. Jockey K. Ogino is “excited for her future.”
- Workout Evaluation: Posted [83.7-67.3-52.4-38.2-12.2] at Miho under a hold. The report notes she is “showing good form.”
Further Reading
Fairy Stakes 2025: In-Depth Workout Analysis! (Japanese)This Week’s Stakes: Fairy Stakes 2025 Training Ratings & AI Picks (Japanese)Beginner’s Guide to Horse Racing Data Analysis (Japanese)
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