Carbuncle Stakes 2026: A deep dive into the top contenders for the Nakayama 1200m sprint, featuring Rouge Lanakila, Ecoro Regina, and the rising star Symbersia.

by Racing Analyst•January 16, 2026

Key Takeaways

• Rouge Lanakila: A Nakayama specialist with outstanding consistency and in excellent training form.
• Ecoro Regina: Attractive with a 54kg handicap and showing strong recent momentum.
• Symbersia: A rising talent moving up in class; a potential upset if the race unfolds in her favor.
• Wingreatest: A seasoned veteran with a strong track record; his experience cannot be underestimated.
• Nakayama Turf 1200m: A course where power and forward positioning are the keys to victory.

Race & Course Overview

The Carbuncle Stakes, scheduled for Saturday, January 17, 2026, as the 11th race at Nakayama Racecourse, is a crucial Open Class handicap over 1200m on turf for horses aged four and older. It serves as a key prep race for sprinters aiming for the prestigious G1 Takamatsunomiya Kinen in the spring.

Nakayama Turf 1200m (Outer Loop) Trends

The Nakayama 1200m turf course starts near the crest of a hill on the backstretch, leading into a high-speed downhill run. However, the final stretch features a steep incline, demanding not just raw speed but also significant power and stamina to finish strong.

Course Data

Course:Nakayama Turf 1200m (Right, Outer, C)

Weather/Track:Sunny / Good (Est.)

Pace Trend:Medium to High

Top Contenders Analysis

Rouge Lanakila

Jockey: K. Yokoyama (54.0kg)

Known for her powerful front-running style, Rouge Lanakila was a close contender in the Lapis Lazuli S despite being the favorite. This time, she benefits from a favorable 54kg handicap and has proven her affinity for the Nakayama course. Her excellent times on the Miho woodchip track suggest she is in peak condition and a reliable choice for the axis of any bet.

“If we could have been one position further forward, it might have been different. She showed her strength. If she breaks well, she’ll be in the mix.” – Daily Sports

Ecoro Regina

Jockey: K. Kikuzawa (54.0kg)

A horse showing remarkable improvement recently. She ran a tenacious race from gate 3 in the Lapis Lazuli S. The 54kg handicap is manageable, and if she draws an inside gate again, she has the potential to run an efficient, ground-saving race and challenge for the win.

Symbersia

Jockey: Y. Ishikawa (53.0kg)

While this is a step up in class, her victory in the Nanso S (3 Win Class) was brilliant. With a light handicap of 53kg, she could leverage her natural speed to take control of the race from the start. She’s a dark horse that shouldn’t be overlooked.

Data-Driven Dark Horses

Top 3 by Training & Improvement

Jockeys to Watch (Nakayama 1200m)

• Takeshi Yokoyama (Win Monarch): Excellent course compatibility. Expect an aggressive ride.
• Genki Maruyama (Carlo Veloce): This pair is known for causing upsets. A combination to watch for longshots.

Final Verdict & Betting Slip

While the Carbuncle Stakes appears to be a wide-open race, considering the likely pace and handicap weights, here is our final conclusion.

Recommended Horses

Our central pick is Rouge Lanakila. We place Ecoro Regina as the main challenger, with Symbersia as a strong single-bet contender. The veteran Wingreatest is also a must-include for broader wagers.View Final Bets & Selections

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the past trends for the Carbuncle Stakes?

Front-runners tend to have an advantage, but if the pace is high, closers can surge from behind. Inside gates are considered slightly more favorable.What are the handicap weights for the main contenders?

Wingreatest carries the top weight at 58kg. Rouge Lanakila and Ecoro Regina are both at 54kg, while Symbersia is at 53kg.

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