By AI Racing Analyst|January 24, 2026
Key Takeaways
- The Wakagoma Stakes centers on a duel between pedigree powerhouse Event Horizon and front-runner Dark Mars.
- Pedigree Advantage: Event Horizon, sired by Harbinger, is genetically primed for the Kyoto 2000m turf.
- Pace Dynamics: A likely slow pace gives a tactical edge to the forward-placing Dark Mars.
- Wildcards: Keep an eye on With Queen (by new sire Contrail) and the powerful Large Ensemble.
- The Deciding Factor: Conquering the infamous “Slope at the 3rd Corner” on Kyoto’s inner course will be crucial.
Table of Contents
AI’s Final Verdict
After integrating ability, pedigree, course suitability, and the latest conditioning data for all 13 entrants, our AI has produced the following definitive rankings.
| Rank | # | Horse Name | AI’s Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| ◎ | 9 | Event Horizon | Superior pedigree and stamina are a perfect match for this course. |
| ◯ | 8 | Dark Mars | Front-running style and stability give a major advantage in a slow race. |
| ▲ | 4 | With Queen | Untapped potential from sire Contrail and a favorable post position. |
| △ | 11 | Large Ensemble | European bloodline brings power, excelling on challenging turf. |
| △ | 5 | Matenro Zero | Valuable experience from a previous G1 race signals comeback potential. |
In-Depth Analysis: The AI’s Logic
Why did our AI reach this conclusion? We’ll delve into the data and pedigree insights that humans often overlook to explain each horse’s rating.
◎ Top Pick: Event Horizon – Pedigree is Power
Event Horizon’s greatest strength lies in his exceptional bloodline.
- Sire Harbinger: His progeny have an astonishing 37.5% in-the-money rate on this course (Kyoto 2000m turf), with reliability increasing on demanding winter tracks.
- Stamina & Lung Capacity: Like his full-sister, world-class mare Deirdre, he inherits European stamina. Once he hits his stride, he doesn’t tire—a critical weapon for the long-stretch battle from Kyoto’s 3rd corner.
- Growth Trajectory: Stable comments confirm significant improvements in his form. His physical and mental growth curve is peaking at the right time.
- Jockey Change: The switch to jockey Mirai Iwata is statistically significant, boasting a win-bet ROI of over 300%. A clutch rider could unlock this horse’s full potential.
◯ Main Rival: Dark Mars – Dominating the Pace
Dark Mars is highly rated as the horse most likely to benefit from the race’s predicted pace.
- Tactical Advantage: With no definitive front-runner, a slow pace is highly likely. This creates a perfect scenario for Dark Mars, who can comfortably secure a forward position.
- Early Maturity: The Epiphaneia x Storm Cat cross is known for producing powerful, early-maturing horses. Trainer Haruki Sugiyama has given his seal of approval, stating, “He’s in better shape than his last race.”
- Jockey Consistency: Yuga Kawada remains in the saddle, a major plus. His complete understanding of the horse ensures a flawless ride at critical moments.
▲△ Horses to Watch: The Wildcards
With Queen, our dark horse pick, is from the first crop of Triple Crown winner Contrail. Her inherited burst of speed and agility could be a perfect fit for Kyoto’s tight inner course, especially under the legendary Yutaka Take. Meanwhile, Large Ensemble, despite skipping the Keisei Hai, shows outstanding form in training. Sired by Benbatl (Dubawi line), his pedigree welcomes a rough track and makes him an intriguing longshot. Don’t discount Matenro Zero, whose experience in the Hopeful Stakes G1 will serve him well in this less competitive field.
Race Simulation: A World of “What Ifs”
AI simulations predict a “slow pace” in over 80% of scenarios. With Queen and El Haben may push forward, but Dark Mars is likely to settle comfortably in 2nd or 3rd. The first 1000m is expected to be a leisurely 61 seconds, setting up a showdown in the final 800m long-spurt battle.
The key to this scenario is Kyoto’s famous “Slope at the 3rd Corner.” The AI’s most probable outcome sees Event Horizon using the downhill stretch to accelerate, positioning himself within striking distance of the leaders at the final turn. The race then becomes a question of how long Dark Mars can hold on, with With Queen and Large Ensemble launching their attacks from behind. This is the “what if” world our AI envisions.
For final betting decisions based on this analysis, we recommend consulting expert information, such as netkeiba’s “Umai Baken” professional tips, and placing bets at your own discretion.
Summary & Simulation Video
The 2026 Wakagoma Stakes is a fascinating contest pitting the pedigree of Event Horizon against the pace-setting Dark Mars, surrounded by a field of talented challengers. We hope this AI analysis helps sharpen your predictions.
For a more detailed visual simulation, check out our YouTube channel.Watch on YouTube: AI Racing Simulations
![[2025 Urawa 11R Momiji Tokubetsu Predictions] Data-Driven Analysis: Is Joe Toby the Lynchpin or Blazing Heat the Dark Horse? A Deep Dive into All 13 Runners](https://keibastat.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/ChatGPT-Image-2025年10月30日-04_06_53-300x200.png)
english
未分類