By AI Racing Analyst | Published January 24, 2026
Article Highlights
- ▶AI’s Top Pick: Shivers (◎) is the final conclusion, backed by the Tomomichi stable’s “winning mentality” and strong pedigree data.
- ▶Course is Key: The unique “Yodo slope” on Kyoto’s 1600m turf (outer course) will be a deciding factor.
- ▶Pedigree Power: Progeny of Maurice, Kizuna, and Kitasan Black show a distinct advantage on this course.
- ▶Pace Prediction: A slow pace is likely, making explosive acceleration and stamina in the final stretch crucial for victory.
- ▶Dark Horses: Watch for Cranford leveraging an inside draw and Sefiro, who has excellent course suitability.
Analysis Index
【CONCLUSION】 AI’s Final Recommendations
After multi-faceted data analysis—including pedigree, course suitability, training, and pace prediction—the AI recommends the following picks:
| Mark | No. | Horse Name | Jockey |
|---|---|---|---|
| ◎ | 8 | Shivers | Yuga Kawada |
| ◯ | 10 | Tagano Elpida | (TBD) |
| ▲ | 4 | Meiner Ticket | Takeshi Yokoyama |
| △ | 14 | Nihonpiro Kyiv | Kanta Taguchi |
| △ | 1 | Cranford | (TBD) |
【DEEP DIVE】 The AI’s Data Points
The AI’s conclusion is based on analyzing correlations in data that humans might overlook, assessing the optimal conditions for each horse to reach its maximum potential.
◎ Shivers: The Ironclad Case for a Favorite
Multiple powerful performance indicators converge on Shivers, making it our top recommendation.
- Pedigree Advantage: The sire Maurice crossed with dam’s sire Deep Impact boasts an extremely high rate of finishing in the money on Kyoto’s outer course. This combination of power and explosive speed is unmatched when accelerating down the slope.
- Stable’s Intent: A “◎” comment from assistant trainer Ishibashi of the Tomomichi stable is a historically reliable sign of a horse being primed for a win.
- Jockey Synergy: The partnership with jockey Yuga Kawada is a force to be reckoned with, boasting an astounding 43.5% win rate at the Kyoto course—a combination that data suggests is undeniable.
◯ Tagano Elpida: The Challenger with a New Strategy
Tagano Elpida is rated as the top contender to upset Shivers. Sire Kizuna was the leading sire in 2024 and 2025, and his progeny have an excellent track record at Kyoto.
- Tactical Shift: The stable has announced they will be “racing proactively from a forward position.” In a race predicted to have a slow pace, this aggressive strategy could be highly effective.
- Solid Bloodline: The cross with dam’s sire King Kamehameha adds stability. Relatives in the pedigree include power types, indicating adaptability to the demanding winter track conditions.
▲ Meiner Ticket: The Rider-Horse Connection
Despite being a class-jumper, Meiner Ticket is highly regarded. Sire Danon Ballade’s lineage is known for excelling on unique courses like Kyoto.
- Horse-Jockey Mastery: Jockey Takeshi Yokoyama commented, “He runs as intended if he can follow the rail,” showing complete control over the horse’s temperament. The ability to maintain focus down Kyoto’s long straight is a significant advantage.
- Peak Condition: The horse showed sharp movement in its final workout, with trainer Miyata affirming, “His condition remains excellent.”
△ Other Contenders: Potential Upsets
Beyond the favorites, several horses could place high if conditions are right.
- Nihonpiro Kyiv: His weapon is a “non-stop speed” inherited from sire Kitasan Black. The stable is confident that “Kyoto, without a final uphill climb, is his best course.” If he settles well, he has the ability to sweep past the field from the outside.
- Cranford: In his last race, he faced a critical block in the final stretch. As a progeny of Bricks and Mortar, his turf suitability is high. If he can conserve energy by taking the shortest route from the innermost gate, he has the potential to outperform his popularity.
【SIMULATION】 IF Scenarios: Race Pace Breakdown
Here’s a simulation of the most likely race pace and which horses would benefit.
Scenario 1: Slow Pace into a Sprint Finish
High Probability
With no clear front-runner, a slow pace with the first 800m around 48 seconds is expected. Positioning over the third-corner slope will be critical, leading to a sprint finish. This favors:
- Explosive Speed: Shivers, Tagano Elpida.
- Inside Track Advantage: Cranford.
Scenario 2: Average Pace Stamina Test
Low Probability
If multiple horses vie for the lead and the pace quickens, the race will become a test of stamina. This scenario would favor horses that can maintain a strong late kick.
- High Stamina: Nihonpiro Kyiv.
- Power Runners: Tagano Elpida.
【SUMMARY】 Final Thoughts & Deeper Dive
According to the AI’s analysis, ◎ Shivers is the horse closest to victory in the 2026 Mutsuki Stakes. The trifecta of pedigree, stable, and jockey is perfectly aligned, and the Kyoto outer course is an ideal stage. However, contenders like Tagano Elpida and Meiner Ticket are certainly capable, and an upset is possible depending on the race’s flow. We recommend using this analysis as a foundation, while also considering the horses’ conditions on race day, to build your final ticket.
For more detailed video simulations, check out our YouTube channel.
Yanashi-Shacho’s Generative Racing Channel on YouTube
Also, be sure to utilize the detailed analysis from professional forecasters for last-minute information gathering before the race.
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