By AI Racing Analyst | Published on January 24, 2026
Article Highlights
- The Nakayama 2000m C-course places a premium on inside track conditions and pedigree suitability.
- The AI’s top pick is ◎ Shadow Meteor, whose power from sire Orfevre is expected to shine.
- Strong contender ◯ Eselfrieda, sired by Kitasan Black, boasts unrivaled course suitability.
- Dark horse ▲ Shonan Rapidus is in peak form, having broken a personal best in recent workouts.
The AI’s Final Verdict: Hatsufuji Stakes 2026
After a comprehensive analysis of pedigree, track suitability, and workout data for all contenders, the AI has generated the following official selections.
| Mark | Horse Name | AI Recommendation |
|---|---|---|
| ◎ | Shadow Meteor | Power from sire Orfevre will be explosive on Nakayama’s final slope. Condition is rapidly improving. |
| ◯ | Eselfrieda | A classic Nakayama 2000m bloodline (Kitasan Black x Harbinger). The most consistent performer. |
| ▲ | Shonan Rapidus | In peak form, broke personal best in final workout. Could secure a win if its front-running strategy pays off. |
| △ | Dot Crew | Inherits Nakayama suitability from sire Deep Majesty. Has the power to contend if a clear path opens up. |
Deep Dive: Data Points Humans Might Miss
◎ Top Pick: Shadow Meteor – Orfevre’s Blood Shines on the Slope
The greatest strength of our top recommendation, Shadow Meteor, lies in the power and tenacity inherited from sire Orfevre and damsire Kurofune.
- Pedigree Advantage: Progeny of Orfevre show a marked tendency to deliver overwhelming power on Nakayama’s steep incline. Damsire Kurofune adds dirt-like strength, which is invaluable on tough winter turf.
- Race Performance: The previous Chiba TV Hai race, where it broke through from the inside on heavy ground, was a perfect display of this bloodline’s true potential. Its mental maturity and racing stability have shown significant growth.
- Workout Evaluation: The final workout showcased impressive limb extension and fluid footwork, indicating a condition superior to its last race. Continuing the partnership with jockey Keita Tosaki is another plus.
◯ Contender: Eselfrieda – The Course Specialist
Eselfrieda boasts exceptional suitability for the Nakayama 2000m turf course. The reason is rooted in its pedigree.
- Dominant Course Record: Sire Kitasan Black is a king at this track, with a win rate exceeding 20% at Nakayama 2000m. This bloodline knows the course inside and out.
- Source of Stamina: Damsire Harbinger provides tough, European-derived stamina, perfecting its “unrelenting final kick.” The camp’s confidence is well-founded.
▲ Dark Horse: Shonan Rapidus – Peak Form, New Tactics
Shonan Rapidus has found new life with the front-running tactics shown in its last race. Its explosive power, typical of Duramente’s progeny, is now matched by peak physical condition.
- ‘S’ Grade Workout: Broke its 5-furlong personal best in the final workout. Even against a lesser opponent, the movement was effortless, indicating ultimate readiness.
- Pace-Setting Potential: The 57kg top handicap is challenging, but its ability to dictate the race is a major weapon. If it can control the pace, it has the potential to shut down the competition.
Race Simulation: The “What Ifs”
This race could see dramatic shifts in the final standings based on two key variables: the race pace and the handicap weights.
Scenario 1: Pace Disrupted by Amai’s Front-Running
Amai’s camp has declared an “all-or-nothing” front-running strategy. Breaking from a favorable inner gate on the C-course, it will likely set a fast early pace, especially if challenged by Shonan Rapidus. This would create a punishing scenario for the front-runners, strongly favoring closers like Shadow Meteor and Eselfrieda who can conserve energy mid-pack.
Scenario 2: Handicap Weights Impact the Final Stretch
In a Class 3 handicap race, even a 1kg difference can be decisive on Nakayama’s final climb. While Shonan Rapidus carries a heavy 57kg, lighter-weighted horses like Mikatte Yonde Ii and Kayou Nen Ka (both at 52kg) are looming threats. Mikatte Yonde Ii, in particular, has a strong record on this course and could stage a dramatic upset if it secures an economical trip along the rail.
Conclusion: Identify the Champion of Nakayama
The 2026 Hatsufuji Stakes is a fascinating contest pitting Shadow Meteor’s raw genetic power against Eselfrieda’s course expertise and Shonan Rapidus’s peak form. The tough winter turf of Nakayama will be the ultimate arbiter. Consider the final track conditions and paddock observations to make your winning choice. Good luck.
Data and commentary cited in this article are based on information from netkeiba.com.
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