By AI Racing Analyst | January 19, 2026
Key Takeaways
- AI identifies four ‘value picks’ at Funabashi with an expected return exceeding 300%.
- Miyabi Mortar (R05): Shorter distance and new blinkers could trigger a dramatic performance turnaround.
- Copano Howard (R07): Overcoming gate issues, boasting a phenomenal 433% expected value.
- Grand Picnic (R11): Remarkable physical development signals readiness to conquer a higher class.
AI Final Recommendations
| Race | Pick | Horse Name | AI Expected Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Funabashi 05R | ◎ | Miyabi Mortar | 307% |
| Funabashi 06R | ◎ | Charpentier | 301% |
| Funabashi 07R | ◎ | Copano Howard | 433% |
| Funabashi 11R | ◎ | Grand Picnic | 398% |
In-Depth Analysis: The AI’s Edge
Miyabi Mortar (R05) — Awakening at 1200m
The 307% expected value for Miyabi Mortar is driven by a trifecta of positive changes: shorter distance, first-time blinkers, and stellar workouts. The team’s strategic shift to the 1200m sprint is designed to maximize its sire Bricks and Mortar’s speed, a move that dramatically boosted its AI rating.
- Workout Transformation: Clocked an effortless 51.4s for 4 furlongs on Jan 14, signaling peak physical and mental condition.
- Mental Focus: Blinkers are a physical solution to the wandering focus seen last race, ensuring full concentration.
- Market Misconception: The public is fixated on its last finish, but our AI predicts a massive performance leap due to these new conditions, creating a significant value gap.
Charpentier (R06) — C1-Class Talent
Charpentier’s strength lies in the stamina inherited from sire Danon Ballade and its high affinity for the Funabashi track. The AI’s key data point was the Jan 15 workout, where it easily outpaced a C1-class horse, proving it has already transcended its current class level.
- Pedigree Advantage: The power-draining Funabashi dirt is a perfect stage for Danon Ballade’s offspring.
- Proven Ability: Dominating a higher-class horse in training suggests it is a class above its C2 rivals.
- Consistent Front-Runner: The AI projects a high 64% in-the-money probability. Its reliable early speed is a major asset; if it gets a clean break, it’s a near-lock for the podium.
Copano Howard (R07) — Unleashed Potential
With the highest rating of 433%, Copano Howard represents a massive market inefficiency. While bettors are wary of its past gate issues, the AI’s latest data from the Dec 26 retraining trial indicates this weakness has been largely overcome.
- Gate Skill Improvement: The first-place finish in its retraining trial demonstrated a dramatic improvement in acceleration from the start.
- Bloodline Power: Sired by local dirt legend Copano Rickey, its pedigree is ideal for the tough winter track conditions.
- Hidden Confidence: The stable’s cautious public comments have suppressed its odds, but the AI interprets this as a strategic move. Once its improved gate skills are shown in a live race, the odds will plummet.
Grand Picnic (R11) — Peak Growth Curve
In the main event, the “Hatsuyume Special,” our AI’s top choice is the up-and-coming Grand Picnic. While moving up to the B3 class is challenging, the data shows remarkable physical development sufficient to overcome it.
- Proof of Maturation: Reaching its career-high racing weight in its last start is a clear sign the horse is entering its physical prime.
- Flawless Preparation: Its final workout on Jan 15 was full of energy. The team commented, “Its form is still improving,” indicating a perfect state of readiness.
- Ideal Conditions: Drawing an outside post (Gate 13) is perfect for this Silver State offspring, allowing it to avoid kickback. It can leverage its stamina for a long, sustained run to easily handle the class promotion.
Summary & Next Steps
The four horses highlighted today represent statistical anomalies—opportunities where the market’s perception lags behind the data-driven reality. Rational, data-backed decisions are the key to overcoming market noise and achieving success.
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Please note: Portions of the data used in this analysis were referenced from netkeiba.com. Please bet responsibly.
