By AI Racing Analyst | January 20, 2026
Key Takeaways
On Jan 20, 2026, the Shirafuji Tokubetsu unfolds at Funabashi. Our AI pinpoints two extremes: the favorite, Bannerman Tesoro, and the high-value longshot, Land Max. This report dissects their chances and those of other key contenders.
- →Land Max: AI’s #1 for expected value, a massive longshot with a 2.2% win rate, suggesting a huge gap between potential and odds.
- →Bannerman Tesoro: Highest win rate but likely over-hyped. AI flags it for low betting value.
- →Figlio del Sol: The most balanced contender. Ranks 2nd in both win rate and expected value, making it a prime candidate for an anchor bet.
AI’s Final Verdict
| Mark | No. | Horse Name | AI Evaluation |
|---|---|---|---|
| ◎ | 6 | Figlio del Sol | Best balance of win rate and expected value. Most reliable anchor. |
| ◯ | 10 | Bannerman Tesoro | AI’s #1 win rate. Top-tier ability but likely over-hyped. |
| ▲ | 13 | Light Three | US-bred with upset potential. A wide draw could be the key. |
| ☆ | 8 | Land Max | #1 in expected value & overall AI score. A high-risk, high-reward bomb. |
| △ | 3, 4, 7 | Bounce Light, etc. | Solid contenders for exotics with consistency or pace advantages. |
Contender Deep Dive
◎Figlio del Sol
The Balanced Favorite
Sired by Creator II (Belmont Stakes winner) out of a Manhattan Cafe mare, this horse’s pedigree screams stamina and grit. In the demanding Funabashi mile, this endurance is a key weapon. The AI data highlights its remarkable consistency.
14.6%
Win Rate (2nd)
233
AI Score (2nd)
135
Exp. Value (2nd)
◯Bannerman Tesoro
The Win Rate Leader
With a pedigree combining the stamina of Heart’s Cry with the speed of Astronomer Royal, its ability is undeniable—reflected in its #1 AI win rate. However, the AI also issues a warning: this is a classic “over-hyped” profile, where high win probability doesn’t translate to good betting value.
16.2%
Win Rate (1st)
175
AI Score (7th)
88
Exp. Value (8th)
▲Light Three
The American Wildcard
A pure American bloodline (City of Light x Honor Code) guarantees power for deep local tracks. The AI highly rates its potential. The outside gate (post 13) is a huge plus, allowing it to avoid traffic and use its speed. If it gets a clean start, it could run away with the race.
☆Land Max
The AI’s Secret Weapon
This is the race’s biggest story. The AI data for Land Max is an anomaly. While its win probability is low, its AI Score and Expected Value are #1. The AI concludes: “The chance of winning is slim, but the potential payout is so massive it represents an exceptional investment.” A must-include for longshot hunters.
2.2%
Win Rate (12th)
243
AI Score (1st)
137
Exp. Value (1st)
Race Simulation: The Funabashi Trap
Scenario A: Hot Pace
The short straight after the start forces a battle for the lead. Horses from wide gates like Light Three press forward, setting a fast pace. This scenario favors closers with stamina like Figlio del Sol and Taisei Warrior, who can save energy behind the speed duel.
Scenario B: Power-Biased Track
Late January in Funabashi often means a dry, deep track that demands raw power. This condition benefits the American-bred powerhouses like Land Max and Light Three. Pure speed horses may falter in the final stretch.
Final Thoughts
The 2026 Shirafuji Tokubetsu is a fascinating puzzle defined by the conflict between “Win Rate” and “Expected Value.” Do you trust the favorite, Bannerman Tesoro, or gamble on the AI’s high-value pick, Land Max? Our final verdict leans towards the balanced Figlio del Sol, but the potential payout from Land Max is too tempting to ignore.Watch Full Simulation on YouTube
Disclaimer: Horse racing involves many uncertain factors. The AI data and forecasts in this report do not guarantee a win. Please place bets responsibly and consult official sources.
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