AI Racing Analyst | January 24, 2026
Key Takeaways
- The 1900m Kyoto dirt course is a stamina test, defined by its challenging incline.
- Ask Steinn, after a dominant switch to dirt, is the prime candidate with top marks in pedigree and training.
- Penna Veloce and Symbolieve are strong contenders due to their damsires’ suitability for the course.
- AI’s final verdict places Ask Steinn as the top pick (◎), with other contenders clearly ranked.
- The race pace set by Rüdesheim will be a critical factor in the final outcome.
Contents
AI’s Final Picks
After integrating all available data—pedigree, course suitability, training reports, and pace projections—our AI has generated the following final rankings.
| Rank | Horse | AI’s Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| ◎ | Ask Steinn | Dominant performance since switching to dirt. Top-tier evaluation in both pedigree and training. |
| ◯ | Penna Veloce | Abundant stamina from damsire Empire Maker makes him highly suitable for this course. |
| ▲ | Symbolieve | His natural speed is an asset on this front-runner-friendly course. Jockey change to Yuga Kawada signals a strong intent to win. |
| △ | Gold Digger | Sire Gold Dream and damsire New Approach create a combination with immense potential. This late bloomer could surprise. |
| △ | Rüdesheim | Hails from a classic Japanese dirt lineage. If allowed to set his own pace, he could be tough to catch. |
In-Depth Analysis
Here’s a look inside the AI’s “thought process,” highlighting data points and pedigree insights that often go overlooked by human analysts.
◎ Top Pick: Ask Steinn – Talent Unleashed on Dirt
Ask Steinn is our top recommendation. After transitioning from turf Grade races, he has truly blossomed on dirt. His final workout was impressive: a 52.8s final 4 furlongs on the Ritto hill course, finishing with a blistering 12.0s final furlong, indicating peak condition.
- Sire Duramente: A King Kamehameha progeny known for power and flexibility.
- Damsire Bellamy Road: A strong American dirt pedigree, excelling at middle distances.
- AI’s Edge: A horse with turf-grade speed backed by a true dirt pedigree is a potent combination. The AI projects high adaptability to Kyoto’s lighter dirt surface.
◯ Contender: Penna Veloce – Stamina & Consistency
Our second choice is Penna Veloce, a consistent performer in the 3-Win class. He easily outpaced his partner in his latest workout, showing no signs of decline.
- Sire Kizuna: Known for imparting physical strength.
- Damsire Empire Maker: A pinnacle of American stamina bloodlines; excels as distances increase.
- Key Insight: This course, with its two climbs, is the ideal stage for his stamina to shine.
▲ Dark Horse: Symbolieve – American Speed & A Top Jockey
Symbolieve, an American import, is our dark horse. His pedigree is packed with mainstream U.S. dirt speed, making him a perfect fit for Kyoto’s front-runner bias.
- Sire Constitution: A successful heir to the Tapit sire line in the U.S.
- Damsire Footstepsinthesand: Conveys the speed and power of the Storm Bird line.
- Key Insight: The jockey change to Yuga Kawada shows the camp’s determination to secure a forward position. A clean break could make him the one to beat.
Simulation: Race Scenarios
The race’s outcome hinges on the pace set by Rüdesheim. The AI has simulated three primary scenarios:
- 01High-Pace BurnoutSymbolieve and Ask Steinn apply early pressure to Rüdesheim. In this war of attrition, the superior stamina of Ask Steinn and Penna Veloce comes to the forefront, allowing them to surge past the tiring leaders.
- 02Slow-Pace Front-Runner’s DelightRüdesheim gets an easy lead as the pack hesitates. On a track with a flat final stretch, front-runners like Rüdesheim and Symbolieve will be extremely difficult to catch if they conserve energy early.
- 03Closer’s ChanceAn intense battle for the lead tires out all the front-runners. This sets the stage for a closer with staying power, like My Noir (ridden by Yutaka Take), to make a late, decisive move from mid-pack.
Summary & Simulation Video
The 2026 Shimogamo Stakes is a high-caliber contest featuring the rising dirt star Ask Steinn against a field of talented specialists. While our AI strongly favors Ask Steinn, the race dynamics make it a complex puzzle where any horse could triumph. We advise considering final paddock condition and track status before placing your wagers. We hope this analysis provides a valuable edge to your betting strategy.
Some of the content in this article is also mentioned in expert columns on netkeiba.com.Watch Simulation Video »
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