By AI Racing Analyst|January 22, 2026
Key Takeaways
- ▶The AI’s top pick isJosuran, whose workout form was simply dominant.
- ▶Coconut Brownis the main rival, boasting a superior track record and solid preparation.
- ▶Dark horseTeresais one to watch, clocking a personal-best time in her pre-race workout.
- ▶The Kokura 2000m turf condition on opening week will be a critical factor.
Contents
AI’s Final Verdict: Kokura Himba S. 2026
After a comprehensive analysis of workout performance, pedigree, course suitability, and handicap weights, our AI has reached the following conclusion:
| Pick | Horse | Jockey | AI Evaluation |
|---|---|---|---|
| ◎ | Josuran | C. Lemaire | On-site training form is dominant. In peak physical and mental condition. |
| ◯ | Coconut Brown | Y. Kitamura | Best record in the field. Powerful hill work shows sustained form. |
| ▲ | Teresa | K. Matsuyama | Exceptional time in pre-race woodchip workout. Poised for a breakthrough. |
| △ | Bond Girl | Y. Tannai | Top-class closing speed. Can win if she settles and conserves energy. |
Picks Legend: ◎ Top Pick, ◯ Strong Contender, ▲ Dark Horse, △ Place Contender
Detailed Analysis: What the AI Sees
Here’s a breakdown of how the AI evaluated each horse, focusing on data points and subtle training nuances that humans might overlook.
◎Josuran: Efforia’s Sister’s Ultimate Form
- Pedigree Advantage: Her sire, Epiphaneia, boasts a remarkable 13.4% win rate at Kokura’s 2000m turf, with over 100% return on investment. Being a full sister to G1 champion Efforia makes her purpose-built for this stage.
- Flawless Workout: With C. Lemaire aboard for her final workout on the Kokura turf, she showed “fantastic spring, like she was lightly bouncing.” Her effortless 11.4-second final furlong is proof of her elite ability.
- On-Site Acclimation: Training locally instead of shipping from Miho Training Center is a huge plus. She is fully adapted to the environment and primed for peak performance on race day.
- Favorable Handicap: Despite a 4th place finish in the Shuka Sho, her 54kg handicap is advantageous compared to her main rivals.
◯Coconut Brown: Proven G1 Talent
Coconut Brown, a top contender on paper, earns a strong rival rating. Her 5th place finish against tough competition in the Queen Elizabeth II Cup proves she is a class above G3 level.
- Training Process: Her final workout on the Ritto hill course was described as “brisk and full of energy.” While the time wasn’t flashy, it was a deliberate fine-tuning for transport, and camp comments confirm her excellent condition.
- Bloodline Synergy: Sired by Kitasan Black out of a King Kamehameha mare, she possesses a perfect blend of stamina and speed, making the flat Kokura 2000m an ideal track for her.
- The Only Concern: Maintaining her race weight is the sole issue. If she weighs in over 450kg on race day, she is a serious threat to win.
▲Teresa: Near-Record Time Signals a Breakthrough
Among the underdogs, Teresa is the one the AI flags as “poised for a breakthrough” based on an outstanding pre-race workout.
- Stunning Workout Time: She clocked a personal-best 79.9 seconds for 6 furlongs on the Ritto woodchip course, with a final furlong of 11.2 seconds. The ease with which she closed a large gap on a lesser horse signals she has reached a new level.
- Jockey’s Confidence: Jockey Kohei Matsuyama was full of praise, stating, “I have no complaints.” This synergy between horse and rider is crucial.
- Course Experience: She won at Kokura three starts ago, eliminating any concerns about her suitability for the track. A fast pace on the opening week turf will play to her acceleration.
△Bond Girl: Settling is Key to Unlocking Potential
Consistently rated for her high potential but often falling just short, Bond Girl’s record of six second-place finishes in graded stakes is a testament to both her ability and her temperamental challenges.
- Latent Ability: With Danon Beluga as a half-brother, her pedigree is top-notch, and her finishing kick is among the best in the field.
- The Main Hurdle: Her biggest challenge is always “settling” during the race. Whether she can relax on her first run at Kokura over 2000m is the absolute key to her success. If the pace is fast and front-runners don’t fade, her ability to conserve energy without panicking will decide her fate.
Simulation: IF Scenarios by Pace & Weather
A race is a dynamic event. Track conditions and race pace can dramatically shift the advantage. Here are the AI’s branching scenarios.
Scenario 1: Fast Track on Opening Week
If the track is firm and fast as expected, the “lightly bouncing” action seen in Josuran‘s workout gives her the perfect setup. Her explosive acceleration will be maximized, increasing her chances of breaking away from the pack in the final stretch.
Scenario 2: A Tough, Grinding Race
If for any reason the pace is unexpectedly fast, leading to a war of attrition, the Kitasan Black bloodline will come to the fore. Horses with superior stamina like Coconut Brown would thrive, grinding out a victory with their relentless staying power.
Final Thoughts
This year’s Kokura Himba Stakes centers around the brilliant workout performer Josuran, but the proven talent of Coconut Brown and the rapidly improving Teresa make this a compelling race. The final decision is best made after checking the track conditions and horse demeanors on race day. We hope this analysis helps inform your picks.
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