AI FORECAST: BLUEBIRD CUP 2026:Finger vs. Katarite vs. Charlie: AI’s In-Depth Analysis of the Path to the Dirt Triple Crown

AI Racing Analyst | January 20, 2026

Key Takeaways

• The Bluebird Cup marks the crucial start of the 2026 Dirt Triple Crown series.
• JRA’s elite contenders Finger, Katarite, and Charlie are the central figures.
• Focus on Finger’s immense potential, sired by the world-class Gun Runner.
• Podfesta leads the local challengers, aiming to leverage home-track advantage against the JRA powerhouses.

AI’s Top Picks

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Finger

Sired by Gun Runner. World-class pedigree and overwhelming ability shown by a massive victory margin in his last race.

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Katarite

Polished and speedy, with two wins from debut. A top contender if he can handle the distance.

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Charlie

First-crop son of dirt champion Chrysoberyl. Partnered with expert jockey Mikamoto for a winning bid.

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Podfesta

Top local horse. Strong 2nd in the Haiseiko Kinen shows he can challenge the JRA elite with his growing power.

Detailed Analysis: The AI’s Edge

◎Finger (World-Class Scale)

Finger is our top pick not just for his impressive victories, but because his pedigree represents the modern ideal for dirt racing. His sire, Gun Runner, also produced BC Classic winner Sierra Leone, a testament to his global-class potential. A key point often missed is his acceleration despite his large size in his last race—a sign of mental maturity that suggests he can handle Funabashi’s tricky corners with ease.

• Sire: Gun Runner
• Feature: Explosive power, winning his maiden by 1.9 seconds.
• Trainer Comment: “He’s a middle-distance type and should handle a demanding dirt track well.”
• Challenge: Previously had a sensitive temperament, but is improving with each race.

◯Katarite (Polish and Speed)

Undefeated in two starts, Katarite’s appeal lies in his high degree of polish. His exceptional gate sense and early speed are top-class, allowing him to easily secure a favorable position. While his pedigree leans towards shorter distances, his team notes he “shows no signs of pulling,” indicating his calm demeanor is key to overcoming the distance barrier. If he handles 1800m, he’ll be a main contender on the Triple Crown road.

• Sire: Danon Legend
• Feature: Consistency and speed, undefeated since debut.
• Trainer Comment: “His good temperament gives us confidence about the longer distance.”
• Challenge: First time at 1800m, long-distance travel, and night racing.

▲Charlie (Pedigree and a Master Jockey)

As a first-crop son of dirt champion Chrysoberyl, Charlie boasts exceptional pedigree reliability. His recent races were stronger than the results suggest, hindered by trouble in the stretch, but his latent ability is G1-level. His biggest advantage is the new partnership with master jockey Norifumi Mikamoto, who knows Funabashi Racecourse inside and out. His skillful ride could unlock this horse’s full power and stamina, making a late surge to sweep past the leaders a real possibility.

• Sire: Chrysoberyl
• Feature: High potential and suitability for regional dirt tracks.
• Jockey: Norifumi Mikamoto
• Trainer Comment: “With his power, the regional dirt track will be no problem.”

△Podfesta (The Local Hero’s Rising Finish)

Podfesta is the most likely local contender to break through the JRA ranks. His second-place finish in the Haiseiko Kinen was a powerful performance, and his closing kick has grown more devastating with each race. Trainer Naoyuki Matoba states, “He still has a lot of room to grow,” highlighting his immense untapped potential. The team is confident about his first time on a left-handed track, and he could leverage his home advantage to swallow up the JRA giants.

• Stable: Oi – Naoyuki Matoba Stable
• Feature: Strong runner-up in Haiseiko Kinen, improving with every start.
• Trainer Comment: “His racing style gets better every time he runs.”
• Challenge: Adapting to his first left-handed course.

AI Race Simulation

Opening: The Battle for Position

As the gates fly open, Katarite and Hermes Gang will push forward. Katarite uses his natural speed to easily secure second. With a long run to the first turn, Finger will gradually move up from an outside position.

Mid-Race: A Tense Pace

The pace remains honest down the backstretch, testing each horse’s composure. Charlie and jockey Mikamoto conserve energy in the pack, calmly watching the leaders and waiting for the right moment to strike.

Finale: The Spiral Curve Showdown

At the crucial 4th corner, Funabashi’s unique spiral curve causes the field to fan out. Finger makes a powerful move on the outside, while Charlie skillfully finds a path on the inside. Katarite digs in at the top of the stretch, but the final 300m becomes a fierce duel. Finger, charging down the outside, battles Charlie splitting horses, while Podfesta unleashes his explosive late kick to defend local honor.

Conclusion

The 2026 Bluebird Cup is a high-stakes clash of titans, headlined by the world-class pedigree of Finger and a field of talented, unique contenders. With Katarite’s speed, Charlie’s elite partnership, and the rise of local stars, this race is packed with intrigue. The winner here will undoubtedly become the one to watch in this year’s 3-year-old dirt division.Watch Simulation on YouTube