調教師転身目前の和田…
未分類和田騎手、調教師転身直前に落馬：太宰騎手…
By AI Racing Analyst|January 22, 2026
AI deep-dive analysis of the final workouts for the 2026 American Jockey Club Cup (AJCC). We dissect the condition of top contenders, including the high-level 4-year-olds Giovanni and Shohei, Nakayama specialist Duradores, and the workout star Faustrasen. What conclusions has the data revealed?
After a comprehensive analysis of workout data, course suitability, and pedigree, our AI has identified these four horses as the top contenders.
| Rank | Horse | AI Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| ◎ | Giovanni | Dominant record at Nakayama. Pedigree and workout show no weaknesses. |
| ◯ | Shohei | Derby 3rd place talent is top-class. A shorter distance is a huge plus. |
| ▲ | Duradores | G1-level contender at his favorite 2200m Nakayama course. Elite bloodline. |
| △ | Faustrasen | Phenomenal final workout. Potential for a major breakthrough after stable change. |
Here’s a breakdown of why our AI reached these conclusions, including factors human analysis might overlook.
With a 2nd in the Hopeful S. and 4th in the Satsuki Sho, Giovanni consistently delivers top performances at Nakayama. Sired by Epiphaneia, his Roberto-line power and stamina are tailor-made for this challenging 2200m course. His loss in the Kikuka Sho can be disregarded; returning to his favorite track in top form, he’s ready to shed his “close-but-no-cigar” reputation.
Finishing 3rd in the Japanese Derby marks him as one of the best of his generation. His dam line, through granddam Musical Way, is a “golden lineage” that produced stars like Mikki Queen and Brede Weg. The Saturnalia x Orfevre cross provides a potent combination of explosive speed and endurance, making this shorter distance an ideal test.
Though he’s finished 2nd in three consecutive graded stakes, his talent is undeniable. He’s particularly dominant at Nakayama’s 2200m, with a near-perfect record of [2-1-1-0]. His world-class pedigree—full sister is the historic filly Regaleira, with Deep Impact in his close relations—will shine on the tough winter turf.
Last year’s Yayoi Sho winner has undergone a dramatic transformation since moving to Naosuke Sugai’s stable. His final workout time of “10.8 seconds” for the last furlong on the Ritto wood chip course was the fastest of the day. He’s physically stronger and radiates the aura of a horse on the brink of a major breakthrough. The power from sire Mozu Ascot and stamina from grandsire Special Week will be a potent combination on Nakayama’s final climb.
The race’s outcome hinges on the early pace and the timing of the long-distance sprint from the third corner.
If Ausvaal or North Bridge set an easy pace, the race favors horses who can conserve energy. This benefits Shohei, sitting in a prime position, and Giovanni, saving ground on the inside. A sprint finish is likely.
If Faustrasen makes a bold move from the third corner, as in the Yayoi Sho, the pace will intensify. This creates a war of attrition, demanding stamina. This scenario favors Duradores and closers like Chuck Nate and Meiner Emperor.
AI simulations identify Faustrasen’s potential move as the race’s critical turning point. How Giovanni and Shohei respond to this pressure will likely decide the winner.
The 2026 AJCC is set to be a thrilling contest. The 4-year-olds Giovanni and Shohei lead the charge, but the in-form Faustrasen and course specialist Duradores make this an unpredictable and exciting race. The final outcome will be a test of strategy, stamina, and pure class in the final stretch.