[Updated: 2026-01-23 20:56:25] Revised by AI Assistant
Analysis by AI
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Published: January 4, 2026 / Updated: January 4, 2026
Get ready for an in-depth preview of the Sunrise Stakes (4-year-olds & up, 3-win class, Turf 1200m) at Nakayama Racecourse on January 5, 2026! This comprehensive analysis combines cutting-edge AI indices with expert pedigree insights to guide your betting strategy. We delve deep into key contenders like Mac Alruin and Ambivalent, uncovering crucial points to help you conquer the betting slip. Which horse will dominate this prestigious short-distance race?
Key Takeaways
- The Nakayama Turf 1200m course features a downhill start for early speed and a demanding uphill climb in the final straight, requiring both power and sustained speed.
- Mac Alruin is the top-rated contender with an impressive AI Index of 79. As a progeny of European sprint king Blue Point, he possesses the ideal blend of power and speed for Nakayama’s challenging uphill.
- Ambivalent enters on a quick turnaround (back-to-back weeks) after a dominant performance in his last outing. His sire, Discreet Cat, also hails from the influential Storm Cat lineage, indicating high suitability for the current course conditions.
- Horses with the potent Storm Cat bloodline frequently feature at the top, demonstrating a strong success rate at Nakayama’s 1200m.
- The AI’s final conclusion designates Mac Alruin as the strong favorite (honmei), with Ambivalent identified as the primary challenger (taikō). For trifecta and other multi-leg bets, a broader selection of horses is recommended.
Contents
- Course Analysis: Nakayama Turf 1200m (Outer Course) Characteristics
- Top Contenders: AI Index Leaders
- Dark Horses & Key Data Insights
- AI’s Final Predictions
Course Analysis: Nakayama Turf 1200m (Outer Course) Characteristics
The Nakayama Turf 1200m (Outer Course) commences near the summit of the backstretch hill, leading into a continuous downhill run until the 4th corner.
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- Sustained Speed: The downhill start allows horses to build speed quickly, often leading to a high-paced opening segment of the race.
- Challenging Uphill Finish: Despite a relatively short home straight (310m), runners must conquer a steep 2.2m elevation gain. This demands exceptional power and stamina in the closing stages.
With “Good” track conditions and the B-course layout in use, a relatively fast race time is anticipated.
Top Contenders: AI Index Leaders
◎ Mac Alruin (Jockey: Keita Tosaki)
AI Top Pick Index: 79 / Estimated Odds: 2.2x
The 4-year-old Mac Alruin stands out in this field, achieving an overwhelming AI Index of 79.
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- Pedigree Prowess: His sire is the European sprint champion Blue Point. This lineage traces through Shamardal and Giant’s Causeway, embedding him firmly within the speed-laden “Storm Cat” family. This potent background provides the power and acceleration necessary to tackle Nakayama’s unique uphill challenge over 1200m.
- Excellent Form: Recent workouts at Miho Wood Course demonstrate superb condition, including a smart 68.2 seconds over 5 furlongs, with a brisk 11.6 seconds for the final furlong under a hand ride.
- Key Concern: As noted by his connections, Mac Alruin has shown tendencies to be slow from the gates. A clean and smooth break will be crucial for his chances.
◯ Ambivalent (Jockey: Yukito Ishikawa)
AI Challenger Index: 55 / Estimated Odds: 6.0x
Our AI’s main challenger is Ambivalent, who makes a quick return to the track (one week rest) after a decisive victory in the Best Wish Cup on December 27.
- Momentum: His last race was nothing short of spectacular. He advanced confidently from the 4th corner, taking the outside of the front-runner and pulling away decisively for an impressive win.
- Course Suitability: His sire, Discreet Cat, also boasts the highly successful Storm Cat lineage. This pedigree provides a strong foundation for excelling under the current track conditions at Nakayama.
- Vigorous Condition: Despite the quick turnaround, his stable reports him to be “full of energy,” showing no signs of fatigue and maintaining excellent form.
Dark Horses & Key Data Insights
Spotlight on the “Storm Cat Lineage”
Interestingly, many of the top-rated and favored horses in this race carry the blood of Storm Cat, a prominent American branch of the Northern Dancer lineage.
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- Mac Alruin (Paternal great-grandsire of sire Blue Point is Storm Cat)
- Ambivalent (Paternal grandsire of sire Discreet Cat is Storm Cat)
- And I Love Her (Paternal grandsire of sire No Nay Never is Storm Cat)
- Speed of Light (Dam’s sire is Storm Cat)
The Nakayama 1200m demands both power and sustained speed, traits frequently found in horses from this esteemed bloodline, leading to a high success rate on this course. Notably, And I Love Her, a winner over the same course and distance last time out, could prove a strong contender in this step-up in class, especially with a favorable 53kg handicap.
Potential Upsetters to Watch
- Like A Flower: An AI-recommended longshot. Her favorable 52kg handicap makes her an attractive prospect, with potential to emerge if the race pace unfolds in her favor.
- Ashakataka: A natural front-runner. If allowed to set her own pace and dictate the race from the lead, she could prove tough to catch in the final stages.
AI’s Final Predictions
Our unique AI logic has generated the following recommended betting selections:
| Mark | Gate No. | Horse Name | AI Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| ◎ | 3 | Mac Alruin | 79 |
| ◯ | 12 | Ambivalent | 55 |
| △ | 5 | Like A Flower | 52 |
| △ | 9 | Ashakataka | 48 |
| △ | 4 | Dover Hawk | 44 |
| △ | 2 | Dark Eclipse | 44 |
| △ | 11 | Isachiru Seaside | 41 |
| △ | 8 | Speed of Light | 44 |
Based on the significant AI index difference, Mac Alruin stands out as the clear top pick, with Ambivalent positioned as the primary challenger. For those playing trifecta or other multi-selection bets, including a wider range of horses is likely the most prudent strategy.
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👉Access the full AI final predictions here (Netkeiba Umai Maken)
Related Resources
- Beginner’s Guide to Horse Racing Prediction Data Analysis
- Horse Racing Data Analysis: From Basics to Advanced for Beginners
- Top 5 Ways to Get to Nakayama Racecourse
- Types of Betting Tickets and How to Buy Them
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