JRA Racing Analysis …
Comprehensive Race Analysis & Betting Strategy
Nakayama 1600m’s early positioning and final uphill finish are critical factors for victory.
Epiphaneia, Kizuna, and especially Silver State progeny (25.2% win rate) show dominant performance.
Drop of Light earns the highest workout rating with an impressive 11.2s final furlong.
Mental maturity is the key question for the top-rated horse to unlock her full potential.
A middle to slow pace is anticipated, favoring horses positioned forward or in prime striking spots.
The 11th Turquoise Stakes (G3) on Dec 20, 2025, is a crucial handicap race for fillies at Nakayama. It’s a crossroads for G1 competitors, summer stars, and emerging talents. The strong 3-year-old generation challenging older horses makes this a key indicator of future potential, with weight differences adding significant unpredictability.
This course is notoriously challenging. A short 240m run to the first corner disadvantages wide gates. The 5.3m elevation change, with a steep final uphill climb, tests stamina and rewards tactical energy conservation. Rider skill is paramount.
The track is expected to be “standard to slightly tiring.” With the meeting on its fifth day, the inner turf’s condition is a focal point. The course will likely test a combination of power and sustained speed.
Silver State Progeny: 25.2% place rate, exceptional speed and stamina.
Kizuna Progeny: 21.5% place rate, powerful runners on tiring tracks.
Epiphaneia Progeny: 14.1% place rate, strong sustained speed.
Noteworthy Others: Maurice, Real Impact, and Daiwa Major progeny also perform well.
A key factor is balancing the class of horses from G1 races (e.g., Bond Girl) against the momentum and lighter weights of rising stars from conditional races (e.g., Cerviatt, Salt Queen).
Winter conditions affect fillies’ form. Monitor horse weight changes alongside training times. For horses traveling from Kansai, ensure their one-week prior training was substantial.
S (Special Mention)
Stunning workout performance. Clocked an astonishing 11.2s final furlong on the Ritto CW course, easily outpacing an open-class horse. At 6 years old, she appears to have reached her peak. A top contender.
Workout: Ritto CW | 79.3-64.0-50.3-36.4 | Last 1F: 11.2s | Strongly urged
S (Highest Rating)
Showed sharp acceleration (11.6s final furlong) and improved mental maturity. Stable reports her in “best level in her career” condition. Her power and speed are poised to shine.
Workout: Miho Wood | 85.3-68.7-53.6-38.5 | Last 1F: 11.6s | Driven in stretch
A+
Pushed hard on Ritto wood course, maintaining good form. Continued partnership with C. Lemaire is a strong positive. Pedigree combines speed and power, suitable for Nakayama’s uphill finish.
Workout: Ritto Wood | 55.0-39.7-25.3 | Last 1F: 12.2s | Pushed hard
A
Clocked a respectable 11.8s final furlong under no pressure. Showing mental composure and appears ready to perform to her full potential.
A
A Silver State progeny (“strongest on Nakayama mile”). Showed good performance (11.8s last 1F). Potential to contend in her first graded stakes.
B+
Distance reduction to a mile is a positive. Physique has developed, and powerful movement raises expectations for the uphill finish.
B+
A course specialist (2nd two years ago). Movement was brisk in training. Her forward racing style makes her a key factor in pace.
With no absolute front-runner, a “middle to slightly slow” pace is likely, set by horses like Feel Sympathy. This would favor front-runners, but jockey tactics will be decisive.
The race will be decided from the 3rd to 4th turn. The ability to accelerate smoothly down the slope without being forced wide will separate the winner from the pack. Horses with good acceleration may make an early move to dictate the race.
Peak 6-Year-Olds vs. 3-Year-Old MomentumWorkout Acceleration is KEYTrust Silver State Progeny