An in-depth analysis of the 1-week prior workouts for top contenders like Umbrile. We break down training times, pedigree, and race data to find the winner of this GIII handicap event.
- Key Takeaways
- Table of Contents
- 1. 2025 Turquoise Stakes (GIII) Overview
- 2. Key Prediction Points
- 3. Detailed Contender Analysis
- 4. 1-Week Prior Workout Data Comparison
Key Takeaways
- The 2025 Turquoise Stakes is a key 1600m handicap race for fillies and mares aiming for spring titles.
- Progeny of Lord Kanaloa and the Heart’s Cry line, which combine speed and power, are pedigrees to watch.
- The 1-week prior workout is a critical indicator of a horse’s condition, with fast times being a major plus.
- Drop of Light posted an exceptional time on the wood chip course, indicating peak form. Umbrile also shows steady progress.
- Bond Girl (benefiting from a shorter distance) and the sharp finisher Rilabonito are also strong contenders.
Table of Contents
- 1. 2025 Turquoise Stakes Overview
- 2. Key Prediction Points
- 3. Detailed Contender Analysis
- 4. Workout Data Comparison
- 5. Conclusion & Top Picks
1. 2025 Turquoise Stakes (GIII) Overview
The 11th Turquoise Stakes, held on December 20, 2025, at Nakayama Racecourse over 1600m turf, is a premier handicap race for fillies and mares that highlights the winter racing season. As the Arima Kinen week approaches, this race serves as a crucial battleground for proven mares looking ahead to the Victoria Mile and up-and-coming fillies riding a wave of momentum from lower-class wins.
This article provides a thorough analysis based on the “1-week prior workouts,” detailed “pedigree backgrounds,” and “jockey/stable comments” from previous races. In a handicap race where the outcome is often unpredictable, we will delve deep into each horse’s condition and suitability for the tricky Nakayama mile, using only objective data.
2. Key Prediction Points
Given the Nakayama 1600m turf course and handicap conditions, the race prediction hinges on three key points:
Course Suitability & Pedigree Trends
The Nakayama 1600m course features a unique layout with a corner right after the start, often causing horses in outside gates to lose ground. Furthermore, a steep incline before the finish line demands not just speed but also the power and stamina to conquer the slope.
- Lord Kanaloa Progeny: Known for their speed and agility, they have a strong track record at the Nakayama mile. Several entrants, including Umbrile and Joyful News, hail from this line.
- Heart’s Cry Line: Renowned for their stamina and late-developing potential, they can handle the tough Nakayama turf. Sodazzling is a representative.
- American Speed Bloodlines: Horses with American power and speed sires like Storm Cat or Deputy Minister in their dam’s lineage tend to perform well on Nakayama’s final climb.
Peak Condition as Seen in Workouts
The December race schedule is a time when accumulated fatigue or, conversely, freshness after a layoff can significantly impact performance. The “1-week prior workout,” in particular, is the best indicator of a horse’s race-day performance. Horses that post personal-best times on the Ritto wood chip or uphill track, or those who finish ahead in partnered drills, are likely in excellent physical condition.
Rebound Potential from Previous Race & Comments
In a handicap race, a horse can rebound from a poor last performance if there were clear excuses like weight disadvantage or unfavorable race development. Jockey comments often contain hints for the next race. For instance, a horse whose poor performance was attributed to a bad draw, unsuitable distance, or track conditions can be expected to improve dramatically under different circumstances.
3. Detailed Contender Analysis
Here, we analyze each registered horse in detail based on the provided data.
Umbrile (5-y-o Mare, Miho – Kimura Stable)
| Sire | Lord Kanaloa |
|---|---|
| Dam | Larquette |
| Damsire | Falbrav |
| Workout Rating | Smooth Movement (→) |
Pedigree Analysis
Sired by Lord Kanaloa out of a Falbrav mare, she possesses a base of raw speed complemented by toughness from her dam’s side, suggesting she can handle the demanding pace of the Nakayama mile. At five, she is entering her prime.
Last Race Review: Fuji S. (5th)
She performed admirably against colts in the Fuji Stakes (GII), finishing 5th. Jockey Lemaire commented, “She ran a good race from behind Soul Rush. She gave it her all.” Her fighting spirit in the stretch shows she is a top-class contender in this fillies-only race.
1-Week Prior Workout Analysis
12/10(Wed) Miho W Good: 84.7 – 68.7 – 53.7 – 38.9 – 11.8 (Unpushed). While the overall time isn’t flashy, the final furlong of 11.8s while “unpushed” is noteworthy. Her effortless movement shows her class and good condition.
Bond Girl (4-y-o Mare, Miho – Tezuka Stable)
| Sire | Daiwa Major |
|---|---|
| Dam | Coasted |
| Damsire | Tizway |
| Workout Rating | Steady Progress (→) |
Pedigree Analysis
Her sire, Daiwa Major, has excellent compatibility with the Nakayama mile. Her dam’s side features American speed bloodlines, giving her early maturity and sustained speed. If she has matured mentally, her true potential could be unleashed.
Last Race Review: Queen Elizabeth II Cup (11th)
Temperament and distance were the causes of her defeat. Jockey Tsumura noted, “She wouldn’t settle down and broke late,” and “this distance is too long for her type.” The cutback to a mile is a major advantage.
1-Week Prior Workout Analysis
12/11(Thu) Miho W Good: 85.3 – 68.7 – 53.6 – 38.5 – 11.6 (Urged near finish). She showed a sharp turn of foot with a final furlong of 11.6s on the wood chip course. This was a good tune-up to test her response, a positive sign for a horse with temperament issues.
Drop of Light (6-y-o Mare, Ritto – Fukunaga Stable)
| Sire | Tosen Ra |
|---|---|
| Dam | Precious Drop |
| Damsire | French Deputy |
| Workout Rating | Finished Ahead, Effortless (↑) |
Pedigree Analysis
A combination of Tosen Ra (Deep Impact line) and the power sire French Deputy. Her dam’s toughness likely contributes to her longevity at age six. She possesses ample power for Nakayama’s final slope.
Last Race Review: Sprinters S. (14th)
In her last G1 sprint, she likely failed to conserve energy chasing a fast pace. Jockey Tannai said, “She couldn’t use her finishing kick as expected.” The step up in distance and drop in class warrant a reassessment.
1-Week Prior Workout Analysis
12/10(Wed) Ritto CW Good: 79.3 – 64.0 – 50.3 – 36.4 – 11.2 (Strongly ridden). She clocked a blistering 79.3s for 6 furlongs on the Ritto wood chip course, finishing with a sharp 11.2s. The comment “Finished ahead, effortless” confirms she has improved significantly and is in peak condition.
Other Noteworthy Runners
Vip Daisy (3-y-o Filly)
Finished a respectable 6th in the Shuka Sho. Jockey Nishimura noted the 2000m distance was a bit long, so the cutback to a mile is a plus. Workout on the uphill track was solid (52.7 – 12.1), showing she’s ready off the layoff.
Kapilina (4-y-o Mare)
Unfavorable draw in her last G1 start. Jockey Tosaki believes she can do better if conditions suit. Her workout was excellent (Miho W, 6F 82.9 – 1F 11.6) with “powerful strides.” A horse to watch.
Summary of Other Entries
- Sodazzling: Disappointing workout (“lacked sharpness”). Needs to show improvement in the final drill.
- Do Eyes: Slow to respond in workout (“unimpressive when pushed”). A change of form is needed.
- Feel Sympathy: Movement was “light and sharp” in a light workout, suggesting she’s fresh.
- Joyful News: Excellent time on Miho W, “body looks great, movement is eye-catching (↗).” Shows upward momentum.
- Rilabonito: Posted a phenomenal 10.9s final furlong on Ritto CW. “Exceptional final furlong burst.” Her finishing kick is among the best.
4. 1-Week Prior Workout Data Comparison
A comparison of the 1-week prior workout data (mainly from Dec 10-11), categorized by training course.
Wood Chip Course Group (Ritto CW & Miho W)
| Horse | Date | Course | Time (6F/5F) | Last 1F | Rating/Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drop of Light | 12/10 | Ritto CW | 79.3 (6F) | 11.2 | Finished ahead, effortless |
| Joyful News | 12/11 | Miho W | 81.1 (6F) | 11.4 | Body great, movement eye-catching |
| Rilabonito | 12/11 | Ritto CW | 82.1 (6F) | 10.9 | Exceptional final furlong burst |
| Kapilina | 12/10 | Miho W | 82.9 (6F) | 11.6 | Powerful strides |
| Umbrile | 12/10 | Miho W | 84.7 (5F) | 11.8 | Smooth movement |
| Bond Girl | 12/11 | Miho W | 85.3 (6F) | 11.6 | Steady progress |
Uphill Track Group (Ritto & Miho)
| Horse | Date | Course | Time (4F) | Last 1F | Rating/Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vip Daisy | 12/11 | Ritto坂 | 52.7 | 12.1 | Ready off layoff |
| Sriruminyon | 12/10 | Ritto坂 | 53.0 | 12.0 | Full of speed |
| Sodazzling | 12/10 | Ritto坂 | 53.5 | 12.4 | Lacked sharpness |
| Do Eyes | 12/10 | Ritto坂 | 52.3 | 12.8 | Unimpressive when pushed |
5. Conclusion & Top Picks
Based on the detailed data analysis, here are our top selections for the 2025 Turquoise Stakes.
S
Overall Rating S: Drop of Light
Her 1-week prior workout was exceptional. A 6F time of 79.3s with a final furlong of 11.2s on the CW is outstanding for this GIII level. Her “effortless finish ahead” of her partner is a clear sign of peak physical and mental condition. Her first graded stakes win is a real possibility.
A
Overall Rating A: Umbrile
Despite being unpushed, the quality of her movement was high, showing the composure of a 5-year-old mare combined with the speed characteristic of Lord Kanaloa’s progeny. Her performance in the Fuji S. was strong, making her a reliable choice for the main contender.
A
Overall Rating A: Bond Girl
The shorter distance is her biggest asset. While she has temperament issues, her sharp 11.6s final furlong in training suggests she’s letting off steam. Her raw ability is high, and a smooth run could lead to a dominant victory.
!
Dark Horses: Rilabonito, Kapilina
Rilabonito‘s phenomenal 10.9s final furlong on the CW is incredibly appealing. If the race unfolds in her favor, she could cause a major upset. Kapilina‘s “powerful strides” on the wood chip course were impressive, indicating significant improvement in her condition.
The 2025 Turquoise Stakes will require a betting strategy that centers on these horses in peak workout condition while considering their suitability for the Nakayama mile and assigned handicap weights. We recommend closely monitoring the final workouts and paddock condition on race day.
※ This analysis is based on the data provided.
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