A deep dive into the…
Wurayah vs. Hiroshikun: The Battle for the Mizusawa Mile
A deep-dive prediction for the prestigious Toukei Nisei Kinen at Mizusawa Racecourse on Dec 14, 2025. We analyze the epic showdown between reigning champion Hiroshikun and JRA transfer star Wurayah, breaking down course fit, pedigree, and race dynamics to deliver our final expert picks.
Epic Showdown: The 2025 race is defined by the rivalry between Hiroshikun, the reigning king of the Mizusawa mile, and Wurayah, a rising star transferred from the JRA.
Treacherous Course: The winter Mizusawa 1600m dirt track is a unique challenge. Its tight turns favor front-runners, and anti-freeze agents create a power-draining, heavy surface.
Clash of Styles: Wurayah brings momentum and elite pedigree but faces a critical challenge with his inconsistent starts. Hiroshikun’s trump card is his unparalleled experience and proven track record on this specific course.
Verdict: Course suitability is paramount. We favor Hiroshikun as the top pick, with betting strategies built around the two titans.
In the annals of Iwate racing, “Toukei Nisei” is more than the name of a horse; it’s a myth. With a record of 39 wins from 43 starts, his legacy at Mizusawa established the very benchmark for strength in the snow-swept north.
The Toukei Nisei Kinen is not just another stakes race. It is the grand finale of the Iwate racing season, a supreme ritual to determine the strongest contender heading towards the prestigious Kirihana Sho.
This year’s race is crystal clear in its narrative: the reigning champion Hiroshikun, an immovable force at the Mizusawa mile, against the brilliant newcomer Wurayah, a JRA transfer who conquered the trial race, the Kizuna Cup. Our report will guide you to the heart of this contest.
To predict with accuracy, one must understand the unique character of the Mizusawa 1600m course. Unlike the spacious and fair Morioka track, Mizusawa is tight, tricky, and in winter, its track conditions can be monstrously unpredictable.
| Feature | Characteristic | Impact on Prediction |
|---|---|---|
| Start to First Turn | Short (approx. 300m) | Intense early pace. Outside gate positions are a significant disadvantage for front-runners. |
| Corner Radius | Extremely tight | Demands agility. Horses with long strides can be pushed wide and lose ground. |
| Home Straight | Very short (approx. 230m) | Closers have almost no chance. The race is often decided by the 4th corner; being forward is essential. |
| Elevation | Almost flat | No hills to drain stamina, but the relentless pace makes it a grueling war of attrition. |
The ironclad rule derived from this layout is: “Position is Everything.” A horse sitting worse than 5th at the final turn is facing a near-impossible task.
Pedigree: New Approach / Wadi (by Pyro)
Profile: A Godolphin-bred with a potent mix of European stamina (sire) and American dirt speed (damsire). This combination is theoretically perfect for the power-sapping winter Mizusawa track.
Performance: Achieved top form in the autumn, culminating in a dominant victory in the Kizuna Cup trial. He’s proven he belongs at this level.
Weakness: His Achilles’ heel is the starting gate. A slow break on this short-stretch course could be fatal to his chances.
Pedigree: Drefong / Esprit de Paris
Profile: Sired by US champion sprinter Drefong, his progeny are known for muscle, early speed, and tenacity. Hiroshikun embodies these traits, relishing the deep Mizusawa surface.
Performance: The undisputed king of this course, boasting an incredible 9 wins at Mizusawa’s 1600m. He possesses elite race IQ and a tenacious will to win.
Challenge: As the defending champion, he will be the primary target. He must withstand immense pressure from Wurayah and the rest of the field.
Synthesizing all data points, we arrive at our final ratings for the key contenders.
| Horse | Rating | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Hiroshikun | ◎ Top Pick | The absolute monarch of the Mizusawa mile. Course suitability, consistency, and early speed are flawless. A repeat victory is highly probable. |
| Wurayah | 〇 Strong Contender | His raw talent may exceed Hiroshikun’s, but the risks associated with his start and adapting to the tight turns temper our rating slightly. |
| Boutoroi | ▲ Dark Horse | The key to exotic bets. If the top two engage in a self-destructive speed duel, he is the most likely to capitalize. A reliable pick for 3rd place. |
Our top selection is ◎ Hiroshikun. His phenomenal record at this specific track and distance is an advantage that cannot be overstated. In the unique crucible of a winter race at Mizusawa, proven experience must be valued over raw potential.
Hiroshikun → Wurayah
Hiroshikun – Wurayah
1st: Hiroshikun
2nd: Wurayah
3rd: Boutoroi, All Others
The 2025 Toukei Nisei Kinen presents a captivating narrative: the “perfected champion” Hiroshikun against the “evolving challenger” Wurayah. Our analysis, weighing every factor from data to pedigree, points to a repeat victory for Hiroshikun. But in horse racing, certainty is a fool’s errand. We may yet witness the moment Wurayah unleashes his full potential and ushers in a new era.
For more detailed data, final picks from professional analysts, and AI-powered race simulations, visit our official race day portal.
Official Toukei Nisei Kinen 2025 Final Picks
This report is an analysis based on information available as of December 2025 and does not guarantee race results. Please bet responsibly.