JRA Racing Analysis for December 14, 2025
This report identifies 33 promising horses for today’s races at Chukyo, Nakayama, and Hanshin. Our selections are based on a proprietary “Value Score” that compares our internal projections against real-time odds, highlighting potentially undervalued contenders from likely winners to high-potential longshots.
- Key Highlights
- Table of Contents
- Chukyo Racecourse Picks (12)
- Nakayama Racecourse Picks (9)
- Hanshin Racecourse Picks (12)
- How to Use This Guide
Key Highlights
Value-Driven Selections
Horses are chosen using a “Value Score” (Odds ÷ Projected Odds) to find betting market inefficiencies.
33 Total Picks
A comprehensive list covering three major racecourses for today’s events.
In-Depth Analysis
Each pick includes key metrics, a quick take, pedigree notes, and strategic betting advice.
For All Bettors
Our picks range from solid favorites with good value to intriguing longshots for high-risk, high-reward plays.
Table of Contents
Chukyo (12)Nakayama (9)Hanshin (12)How to Read
Chukyo Racecourse Picks (12)
Danon Joker
Chukyo 10R – Ichinomiya Tokubetsu
Est. Fav.
#1
Win Prob.
77%
Value
168%
Quick Take: “Hoping for post-layoff boost.”
Pedigree: Sire: Lord Kanaloa, Dam: La Coronel, Damsire: Colonel John.
Betting Strategy:
- A good anchor if odds aren’t prohibitively low.
- Prioritize checking paddock condition after a layoff.
- Advantage grows in a competitive field.
South Bank
Chukyo 11R – Chiryu S
Est. Fav.
#1
Win Prob.
63%
Value
169%
Quick Take: “Tricky but talented.”
Pedigree: Sire: Greater London, Dam: Passion Rose, Damsire: Afleet.
Betting Strategy:
- Gate position and race flow are critical for this type.
- High value score for a favorite suggests market over-caution.
- Better as an anchor in exotic bets than a straight win bet.
Sunark Picasso
Chukyo 12R – 3yo+ 1-Win Class
Est. Fav.
#3
Win Prob.
29%
Value
180%
Quick Take: “Effective at this level.”
Pedigree: Sire: Asia Express, Dam: Home Again, Damsire: Deep Impact.
Betting Strategy:
- Look for this one in lower-stakes, non-graded races.
- Treat as a value play, not a lock, due to moderate win prob.
- Check track bias on race day (favoring front-runners vs closers).
Blume Sunrise
Chukyo 1R – 2yo Maiden
Est. Fav.
#3
Win Prob.
34%
Value
175%
Quick Take: “Showed promise in debut.”
Pedigree: Sire: Epiphaneia, Dam: Poplar, Damsire: Frankel.
Betting Strategy:
- A strong debut performance warrants respect in a similar race.
- A clean start is crucial in maiden races.
- Good value remains even if popularity rises.
Meiner Tremors
Chukyo 2R – 2yo Maiden
Est. Fav.
#3
Win Prob.
47%
Value
217%
Quick Take: “Pace-dependent contender.”
Pedigree: Sire: Henny Hughes, Dam: Pure Opal, Damsire: Rock of Gibraltar.
Betting Strategy:
- Odds can be skewed in unpredictable races; presents opportunity.
- Strong win probability makes it a potential anchor in a weak field.
- If horse is agitated pre-race, consider hedging with exotic bets.
Inoki
Chukyo 3R – 3yo+ 1-Win Class
Est. Fav.
#4
Win Prob.
33%
Value
348%
Quick Take: “A dark horse.”
Pedigree: Sire: Mr. Melody, Dam: Koikurenai, Damsire: Taiki Shuttle.
Betting Strategy:
- A massive value score signals a significant market undervaluation.
- Inconsistency is implied; don’t over-leverage in your bets.
- Best used in Place/Show or Wide bets to capture value.
Satono Trinity
Chukyo 4R – 2yo Maiden
Est. Fav.
#3
Win Prob.
12%
Value
181%
Quick Take: “Emerges in a chaotic race.”
Pedigree: Sire: Kingman, Dam: Satono Sans, Damsire: Confirmed.
Betting Strategy:
- Low win prob; include as a secondary part of exotic bets.
- Maiden races are unpredictable, so manage your bet sizing.
- Re-evaluate if odds shift dramatically before the race.
Tosen Brillare
Chukyo 5R – 2yo Newcomer
Est. Fav.
#2
Win Prob.
27%
Value
151%
Quick Take: “Ready from the start.”
Pedigree: Sire: Kitasan Black, Dam: Trip to Eden, Damsire: Fastnet Rock.
Betting Strategy:
- In newcomer races, value scores are more reliable than ability metrics.
- A decent value score for a second favorite indicates remaining potential.
- Paddock appearance is key; adjust your bet based on it.
Margot Regina
Chukyo 6R – 3yo+ 1-Win Class
Est. Fav.
#3
Win Prob.
27%
Value
172%
Quick Take: “If the pace is right.”
Pedigree: Sire: Duramente, Dam: Carte Blanche, Damsire: Gold Allure.
Betting Strategy:
- Bet on this horse when you anticipate a favorable race pace.
- Including it in exotics can improve overall returns.
- Favor Exacta/Wide bets if the race pace is hard to predict.
Kudos
Chukyo 7R – 3yo+ 1-Win Class
Est. Fav.
#8
Win Prob.
20%
Value
206%
Quick Take: “Ready for a comeback.”
Pedigree: Sire: Mr. Melody, Dam: Archange, Damsire: Chichicastenango.
Betting Strategy:
- Excellent value as a longshot.
- Include on the fringes of your exotic bets for a potential payout boost.
- If odds shorten too much, the value is lost; consider passing.
Supervisor
Chukyo 8R – 3yo+ 1-Win Class
Est. Fav.
#9
Win Prob.
9%
Value
223%
Quick Take: “Still developing.”
Pedigree: Sire: Rulership, Dam: Celebration, Damsire: Heart’s Cry.
Betting Strategy:
- Low win prob suggests betting for 2nd or 3rd place.
- Strong value signal; value increases if odds drift higher.
- Don’t over-invest; the “developing” tag indicates risk.
Geronimos
Chukyo 9R – Osu Tokubetsu
Est. Fav.
#7
Win Prob.
31%
Value
430%
Quick Take: “Has a knockout punch.”
Pedigree: Sire: Rulership, Dam: Azulejo, Damsire: Turtle Bowl.
Betting Strategy:
- An exceptional value score; the poster child for a value bet.
- Adding this “puncher” to your bets significantly raises potential ROI.
- Keep the stake small, as inconsistency is the trade-off for high odds.
Nakayama Racecourse Picks (9)
To Password
Nakayama 10R – Shiwasu S
Est. Fav.
#2
Win Prob.
33%
Value
157%
Quick Take: “Tenacious.”
Pedigree: Sire: Copano Rickey, Dam: T M Princess, Damsire: Taiki Shuttle.
Betting Strategy:
- Value bets shine in open-class races with small ability gaps.
- Value still exists at 157% for a second favorite.
- Keep your exotic bets focused on other high-ranking horses.
Sunrise Amour
Nakayama 11R – Capella S
Est. Fav.
#8
Win Prob.
3%
Value
175%
Quick Take: “If things go his way.”
Pedigree: Sire: Munnings, Dam: Japanese Humor, Damsire: Distorted Humor.
Betting Strategy:
- A viable longshot for a major race.
- Low win prob; bet for 2nd/3rd, not to win.
- More valuable in races where the pace is uncertain.
Best Scene
Nakayama 12R – 3yo+ 1-Win Class
Est. Fav.
#3
Win Prob.
21%
Value
151%
Quick Take: “Competitive at this level.”
Betting Strategy:
- Moderate win prob; adjust ROI by selecting stronger/weaker partners.
- 151% is the threshold for a “bettable favorite.”
- Confirm compatibility with the day’s track bias.
Pure Emblem
Nakayama 3R – 2yo Maiden
Est. Fav.
#4
Win Prob.
27%
Value
216%
Quick Take: “Expecting a new dimension.”
Betting Strategy:
- Maiden races often see sudden improvements.
- A value score of 216% implies it has a better chance than its odds suggest.
- Target exotic bets rather than straight win bets.
Quantum Bit
Nakayama 5R – 2yo Newcomer
Est. Fav.
#4
Win Prob.
11%
Value
231%
Quick Take: “If training translates to track.”
Betting Strategy:
- A classic value-first play in a newcomer race.
- Increase bet if pre-race appearance is positive; pass otherwise.
- Low win prob means keeping your bets small and focused.
Lux Pop Star
Nakayama 6R – 2yo Newcomer
Est. Fav.
#3
Win Prob.
17%
Value
225%
Quick Take: “Contender from day one.”
Betting Strategy:
- Despite being a top-3 favorite, 225% indicates good value.
- For newcomers, bet on readiness rather than raw talent.
- Place/Show or Wide bets offer a stable way to capture value.
Margot Sands
Nakayama 7R – 2yo 1-Win Class
Est. Fav.
#6
Win Prob.
13%
Value
192%
Quick Take: “After a reset.”
Betting Strategy:
- Races at this level are prone to odds distortions.
- Interesting contender to include in exotic bets.
- Beware of late surges in popularity, which will erode value.
Dakara Festive
Nakayama 8R – 3yo+ 1-Win Class
Est. Fav.
#5
Win Prob.
19%
Value
219%
Quick Take: “Runs to the level of competition.”
Betting Strategy:
- A reliable performer even in a stronger field.
- Solid enough to be a pillar of your exotic bets.
- Build your bets with a mix of favorites and other longshots.
Lady Mykonos
Nakayama 9R – Kasumigaura Tokubetsu
Est. Fav.
#1
Win Prob.
55%
Value
233%
Quick Take: “A class above.”
Betting Strategy:
- A 233% value score on a favorite is a powerful signal.
- Good anchor, but pair with other high-value horses.
- Even at short odds, proper bet construction can yield value.
Hanshin Racecourse Picks (12)
Testimone
Hanshin 10R – Takedajo S
Est. Fav.
#1
Win Prob.
60%
Value
183%
Quick Take: “Anchor candidate.”
Pedigree: Sire: Drefong, Dam: Wise Answer, Damsire: South Vigorous.
Betting Strategy:
- A value of 183% for a favorite maintains its viability as an anchor.
- Center your exotic bets around this horse.
- Monitor late odds drops, which can diminish the value.
Mitsukane Venera
Hanshin 11R – Hanshin JF
Est. Fav.
#8
Win Prob.
5%
Value
151%
Quick Take: “Upset alert.”
Pedigree: Sire: Maurice, Dam: Nasc Kazan, Damsire: Daiwa Major.
Betting Strategy:
- Betting on G1 longshots is all about construction and bankroll management.
- Low win prob; think 2nd or 3rd place finishes, not a win.
- Moderate value, but justifiable to include in a G1.
Lux Zenia
Hanshin 12R – Koto Tokubetsu
Est. Fav.
#4
Win Prob.
32%
Value
153%
Quick Take: “In the mix.”
Pedigree: Sire: Kizuna, Dam: Satono Alicia, Damsire: Harbinger.
Betting Strategy:
- A bettable mid-tier favorite.
- Use as a key part of exotic bets rather than a single anchor.
- Adjust evaluation based on extreme track conditions.
Sunrise Kevin
Hanshin 1R – 2yo Maiden
Est. Fav.
#2
Win Prob.
25%
Value
176%
Quick Take: “Has a winning chance.”
Pedigree: Sire: Sinister Minister, Dam: Cache Cache, Damsire: Afleet.
Betting Strategy:
- Maiden races are unpredictable; diversify your bets.
- A value of 176% for a second favorite offers a good opportunity.
- Upgrade if it gets a clean break and good position early.
Bice Mare
Hanshin 2R – 2yo Maiden
Est. Fav.
#4
Win Prob.
24%
Value
168%
Quick Take: “Can win or lose.”
Betting Strategy:
- Good value for an exotic bet.
- Prioritize exotic bets over straight win bets for better returns.
- Consider increasing your stake if the odds drift higher.
To Alain
Hanshin 3R – 2yo Maiden
Est. Fav.
#1
Win Prob.
77%
Value
184%
Quick Take: “Consistent.”
Betting Strategy:
- High win probability makes it a prime anchor candidate.
- A value of 184% on a heavy favorite is excellent; bet with confidence.
- Be cautious of being over-bet, which would diminish the value.
TM Steel
Hanshin 4R – 2yo Newcomer
Est. Fav.
#1
Win Prob.
32%
Value
152%
Quick Take: “Ready from the start.”
Betting Strategy:
- Betting on a newcomer favorite is risky; use exotic bets to manage risk.
- 152% is a “bettable” value.
- Paddock appearance is crucial; can be upgraded to anchor or downgraded.
Page Turner
Hanshin 5R – 2yo Newcomer
Est. Fav.
#1
Win Prob.
100%
Value
162%
Quick Take: “The logical choice.”
Betting Strategy:
- Perfect for a fixed anchor bet.
- Newcomer races are unpredictable; still include other horses.
- If over-bet, the value shifts to finding the right partners for it.
Mont Saint Golden
Hanshin 6R – 2yo 1-Win Class
Est. Fav.
#3
Win Prob.
55%
Value
179%
Quick Take: “Superior ability.”
Betting Strategy:
- A strong anchor candidate with good numbers.
- Spread your bets for other positions, as this class can be volatile.
- Downgrade to exotic bets if pre-race condition seems poor.
Pacific High
Hanshin 7R – 3yo+ 1-Win Class
Est. Fav.
#6
Win Prob.
15%
Value
187%
Quick Take: “Waiting for the right setup.”
Pedigree: Sire: Kitasan Black, Dam: Delong Star, Damsire: Victoire Pisa.
Betting Strategy:
- The value comes from its potential to capitalize on a specific race flow.
- Good value as an exotic bet partner.
- If the race is unpredictable, Wide bets are a safer option.
Fiddle Faddle
Hanshin 8R – 3yo+ 2-Win Class
Est. Fav.
#2
Win Prob.
51%
Value
265%
Quick Take: “A strong contender.”
Pedigree: Sire: Satono Aladdin, Dam: Vingt et un Marche.
Betting Strategy:
- Outstanding value for a second favorite; a prime “value anchor.”
- Pair with other high-ranking horses and keep bets focused.
- The goal is to build ROI around this fixed anchor.
Hagino Aldebaran
Hanshin 9R – Orion S
Est. Fav.
#6
Win Prob.
21%
Value
396%
Quick Take: “Can close fast.”
Pedigree: Sire: Just a Way, Dam: Hagino Ark.
Betting Strategy:
- Extremely attractive as a value-driven longshot.
- More rational to bet for 2nd or 3rd place given the 21% win prob.
- If track bias favors closers, consider a larger stake.
How to Use This Guide
Value Score: A higher score indicates a stronger “reason to bet,” as the horse may be undervalued by the market. This is separate from its probability of winning.
Win Probability: Horses with a lower win probability are better suited for exotic bets (e.g., place, show, exacta) to capture their value, rather than straight win bets.
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