Bloodline Evaluation & 1800m Race Strategy
Published: December 24, 2025
Race Overview
The Seraphinite Stakes, a 2-year-old open race held on December 26, 2025, at Ooi Racecourse over 1800m, is a crucial event that foreshadows the following year’s South Kanto Classic races. This article analyzes the new course conditions with a sand depth of 9cm, thoroughly examines the bloodline advantages of strong contenders Hesperis and Moele Sawan Miyagi, and derives a winning strategy through the latest training data and race simulation.
Key Takeaways
- Seraphinite Stakes is a key predictor for the next year’s South Kanto Classics.
- New 9cm sand depth favors faster times and front-running horses.
- Hokko Tarumae’s progeny, Hesperis and Moele Sawan Miyagi, are top contenders.
- Dark horses GT Train and Justice offer high payout potential due to excellent training form.
1. A Gateway to the Classics
The Seraphinite Stakes is more than just a race; it’s a critical test for horses aiming for the 2026 South Kanto 3-year-old Classic races. The 1800m distance challenges the “true stamina” and “mental toughness” of 2-year-olds, separating future dirt champions from the rest.
2. Course Analysis: Impact of 9cm Sand Depth
Structural Characteristics of Ooi 1800m
The outer course features long straights and gentle corners, minimizing draw bias and favoring horses with a large stride. The race often hinges on mid-race tactics and final straight acceleration.
Decisive Variable: The 9cm Sand Depth
The reduction from 10cm to 9cm sand depth is the most significant factor. This change leads to faster race times, a bias towards front-runners, and benefits speed-oriented bloodlines. By Dec 24, a clear trend of front-runners performing well has emerged, making a forward position by the 4th corner crucial.
3. Bloodline Evaluation of Leading Contenders
Hesperis
Sire: Hokko Tarumae / Dam’s Sire: Special Week
A classic pedigree promising stamina. The “King Kamehameha x Sunday Silence” cross is a golden combination. Exceptional debut win at this course (1:57.1) proves high suitability.
Moele Sawan Miyagi
Sire: Hokko Tarumae / Dam’s Sire: French Deputy
Features a “golden nick” for dirt racing. The “King Kamehameha x French Deputy” cross imparts immense power. Expected to adapt well to Ooi’s longer outer course.
Walk Up
Sire: Mind Your Biscuits / Dam’s Sire: Toccet
American-bred speedster who gains a significant advantage from the 9cm sand depth. The Danzig line’s speed will be amplified on the faster track.
GT Train
Sire: Dream Valentino / Dam’s Sire: Durandal
A sprinter by bloodline with explosive potential. Exceptional burst speed and could unleash a powerful late run if he can settle over 1800m.
Ts Alight
Sire: Smart Falcon / Dam’s Sire: Wild Rush
A graded stakes winner from Monbetsu with the best proven record. Smart Falcon’s blood provides speed and tenacity, making him adept at “leading and holding on.” A potent threat if he can secure an early lead.
4. Training Report: Final Condition
↗Horses in Excellent Condition
| No. | Horse Name | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Justice | Shows improvement, potentially on an upward curve. Dark horse candidate. |
| 5 | GT Train | Outperformed older horses, indicating high fitness. Form may overcome bloodline concerns. |
| 11 | Euro Heartbeat | Beat stablemate in workout, showing improving condition. |
→Horses in Stable Condition
| No. | Horse Name | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Prologue | Good time with easy pace; maintaining high level. |
| 4 | Walk Up | Worked at full effort, indicating strong competitive spirit. |
| 6 | Hesperis | Sharp movement on the farm’s uphill track; fully prepared. |
| 7 | Moele Sawan Miyagi | Powerful movement, suggesting intent for a forward position. |
| 8 | Ts Alight | Worked at full effort after off-track training; ready. |
5. Race Development Prediction
The pace is expected to be average to slightly slow, with Ts Alight, Prologue, and Moele Sawan Miyagi as key pace-setters. The turning point will be the 3rd to 4th corner, where sustained speed from horses like Hesperis and Moele Sawan Miyagi will be crucial. A late charge from GT Train is a realistic possibility if the pace quickens.
6. Conclusion & Recommendation Rating
S
Solid Anchor
7 Moele Sawan Miyagi
A
Strong Challengers
- 6 Hesperis
- 4 Walk Up
B
Potential for Place/Show
- 5 GT Train
- 1 Prologue
- 8 Ts Alight
DH
Dark Horse
2 Justice
Summary: Final Prediction Strategy
- Anchor: Trust Moele Sawan Miyagi’s experience and ideal bloodline.
- Top Rival: Hesperis possesses equal potential for a head-to-head battle.
- Upset Potential: Walk Up shows the highest adaptability to a fast track.
- High Payouts: Include GT Train and Justice in bets for their excellent form.
Confirm Final Betting Strategy
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