目次 はじめに皐月賞 過去10年の傾向分…
A deep dive into the top contenders for Saturday’s feature races. We break down stable insights, training data, and course suitability to pinpoint the most promising 3-year-olds poised for victory.
Senior Racing Analyst
•December 6, 2025
NAKAYAMA 10R / DIRT 1800m
The Nakayama Dirt 1800m course is a demanding layout. Starting before the steep homestretch slope, horses must complete over a full lap, tackling the grueling incline twice. This requires not just speed, but also immense stamina and power. In mixed-age races at this time of year, developing 3-year-olds often leverage their weight advantage, but only if they have the proven power to conquer Nakayama’s signature hill.
Expected to be the favorite, Brutus’s greatest asset is his course suitability, with trainer Mizuki Takayanagi stating he “fits Nakayama perfectly.” The switch from the flat Niigata course (where he finished 3rd) to the hilly Nakayama is a significant advantage. Stable comments confirm he was unaffected by a recent withdrawal from another race and was pushed hard in training, indicating a high level of readiness. He is known to perform better in actual races, making his intense final workout a positive sign.
Leading the older contingent, Horatio boasts a reliable track record at this course, as noted by trainer Nishida’s comment: “He’s accustomed to running at Nakayama.” His recent 2nd place finish at Tokyo Dirt 1600m confirms his good form. Training reports indicate he has “maintained his peak condition” and is moving on par with higher-class horses, making him a dependable choice for the quinella.
The 3-year-old filly Layback Spin is one to watch, coming off a stunning 5-length victory in her last race. The comment “she’s learning to run much straighter when urged” suggests mental maturity. If she can use her lightweight advantage, she could be a surprise factor.
Meanwhile, Purnachandra‘s strength is her toughness, highlighted by the stable’s remark that she “recovers quickly.” Her fast recovery after a strong previous race is a major asset on the demanding Nakayama course, where races often become wars of attrition.
| Horse Name | Key Points (Fact-Based Analysis) |
|---|---|
| Brutus | Trainer explicitly states “fits Nakayama.” Change of venue is a major plus. “Pushed hard” in training and his “race-day type” nature underscore his competitiveness. |
| Horatio | Proven consistency at a familiar course. “Maintained peak condition” in training, indicating reliability and low risk of collapse. |
| Layback Spin | Carries momentum from a 5-length victory. Improved form and steering are key to her chances. |
| Purnachandra | Her “quick recovery” indicates toughness, a significant advantage in grueling races at Nakayama Dirt 1800m. |
HANSHIN 10R / DIRT SPRINT
The Myokenzan Stakes, a sprint on Hanshin’s demanding dirt track, requires more than raw speed. With a steep slope before the finish line, a balance of early pace and finishing power is critical for success.
The likely favorite, Dragon Wells, possesses overwhelming speed. Assistant trainer Tashiro’s comment, “He gets to the front without being pushed,” proves his base speed is a class above. Notably, his training evaluation is marked as “↗ (Improving).” He clocked a phenomenal 11.2 seconds in the final furlong on the Ritto CW course, suggesting he has improved significantly since his last race.
Gettivilla is riding a wave of momentum after a strong previous win. Trainer Oguri notes his mental growth: “He’s gotten used to taking kickback.” This newfound versatility means he is less dependent on the race’s flow, setting up a potential duel with Dragon Wells depending on the start.
For Takane no Hanako-san, the question is whether her “speed can hold up” at this level. She has recorded fast times in training and is reportedly “improving with every workout,” showing an upward trend.
Femme Elegante‘s evaluation is conditional: “if she can handle Hanshin.” While her course suitability is a concern, her training movements are sharp, and she’s described as “full of energy.” If she can conquer the slope, she has the potential to be a contender.
| Horse Name | Key Points (Fact-Based Analysis) |
|---|---|
| Dragon Wells | Stable confidence and “powerful strides (↗)” in training. A blazing final furlong of 11.2s on the CW track makes him a strong favorite to win from the front. |
| Gettivilla | Mental growth shown by “getting used to kickback.” His versatility makes him a major threat regardless of race pace. |
| Takane no Hanako-san | Has the “speed” to compete at this level. Significant improvement in training suggests she could hold on for a place. |
| Femme Elegante | Biggest question is handling the “Hanshin slope.” She’s in good condition but course suitability is a risk factor. |
CHUKYO 10R / TURF 1200m
The Chukyo Turf 1200m is a tough sprint course featuring a steep 2.0-meter incline in the final straight. It demands not only speed but also the stamina and power to maintain that speed to the finish. This race is shaping up to be dominated by the 3-year-old Zett Yell.
The undisputed star of this race is Zett Yell, with predicted odds of 1.8. He delivered a “spectacular, eye-popping victory” in his last race at Hanshin Turf 1200m, winning by a staggering 8 lengths. Such a margin in a sprint race indicates he is in a different league. Jockey Danno commented, “He still has some greenness, but today was a complete victory,” acknowledging his immense, untapped potential. His unconventional training schedule—completing his final workout on a Tuesday—signals the stable’s confidence and composure.
Described as “exceptionally consistent,” Big Dream is a reliable performer who rarely runs a bad race. Finishing 2nd in his last outing, he’s a proven talent in this class, and trainer Masato Nishizono is showing strong intent, stating, “This time for sure.” If Zett Yell falters, Big Dream is the most likely to capitalize.
The “up-and-coming 3-year-old” Be Max is also on an upward trajectory (↗), running well in his first race after moving up in class. With that experience, further improvement is expected.
Wainona Omi has “filled out and matured,” according to reports. While adapting to the shorter distance is key, Chukyo’s long straight is well-suited for her late-closing running style.
| Horse Name | Key Points (Fact-Based Analysis) |
|---|---|
| Zett Yell | Shocking “8-length victory” in last race. Confident “Tuesday workout” schedule confirms superior ability and top condition. The one to beat. |
| Big Dream | The epitome of “exceptionally consistent.” Always a contender and the prime candidate to challenge Zett Yell. |
| Be Max | An “up-and-coming 3-year-old” on an upward curve (↗). Could outperform his odds significantly. |
| Wainona Omi | Physically “filled out and matured.” Her closing kick could be effective on the long Chukyo straight. |
A common trend across all three analyzed races is the “superiority of the 3-year-old generation.” December is the time of year when 3-year-olds, while still receiving a weight allowance, have physically matured to a level comparable to their older rivals. The data suggests that betting on this generational shift is a rational strategy.
Furthermore, training patterns like Zett Yell’s “Tuesday workout” and Brutus’s “hard workout” provide clear insights into the competitive intent of each stable.
In conclusion, building a strategy around Zett Yell’s ability in the Chukyo Nikkei Sho appears to be the most reliable approach. For the Kashima Tokubetsu, Brutus is the central figure due to his course suitability, while Dragon Wells stands out in the Myokenzan Stakes for his raw speed. A betting strategy focused on these promising 3-year-olds is the recommended course of action.
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