A deep dive into the training, pedigrees, and prospects of the top contenders for Japan’s most prestigious steeplechase.
December 27th, Nakayama Racecourse
Key Takeaways
S
Ecolo Duel at Peak
Rated ‘S’ for peak condition. His Kitasan Black lineage provides immense stamina, making him the one to beat for a repeat victory.
A
June Velocity’s Test
Strong weekend training signals readiness, but overcoming the unique challenges of the Nakayama course remains his biggest hurdle.
A
Neviim the “Monster”
A true “stamina monster” with specialized gate training. Primed to excel in a grueling, high-stakes endurance race.
The Ultimate Test of a Steeplechaser
The Nakayama Grand Jump, contested over 4100 meters, is the pinnacle of the sport. Its infamous obstacles, including the 1.6m high ‘Otakezaku’ and ‘O-seki’ fences, and the energy-sapping ‘Banket’ undulations, demand a rare combination of speed, courage, stamina, and an unbreakable bond between horse and rider. Success here cements a legacy.
In-Depth Analysis: Top Contenders
Ecolo Duel
Colt, 6 y/o, Miho TC – Takaki Iwato Stable
S Rating
Pedigree Analysis
Sire: Kitasan Black (Stamina, sustained speed)
Dam: Clarinet by Giant’s Causeway (Power, fortitude)
Inbreeding: 5×5 Lyphard (Endurance)
Final Training (12/24)
MiW (Good) | 6F 83.4 – 5F 67.5 – 4F 52.7 – 3F 38.4 – 1F 12.1s (Handily)
Finished with ease alongside a stablemate, showing sharp acceleration and perfect condition.
Connections’ Comments
“The horse looks and feels good, his condition is perfect. There are no excuses.”— Trainer Iwato
June Velocity
Colt, 7 y/o, Ritto TC – Takehito Takei Stable
A Rating
Pedigree Analysis
Sire: Lord Kanaloa (Speed)
Dam: Admire Sabrina by Symboli Kris S (Stamina, Power)
Weekend Workout (12/20)
RiCW (Slight Heavy) | 7F workout, 1F 11.6s
Powerful finish comparable to flat racers, indicating peak cardiovascular fitness.
Connections’ Comments
“His condition is excellent. I’ll discuss strategies… doing the same thing won’t yield different results.”— Jockey Takada
Neviim
Colt, 7 y/o, Ritto TC – Shozo Sasaki Stable
A Rating
Pedigree Analysis
Sire: Kizuna (Explosive speed)
Dam: Velvet Queen by Singspiel (European stamina)
Lineage built for exceptional endurance in grueling races.
Final Training (12/24)
RiGate (Heavy) | 4F 53.6 – 3F 39.5 – 2F 25.7 – 1F 13.0s (Slight Full)
Consistent, hard gate training to build stamina for Nakayama’s uphill sections.
Connections’ Comments
“The longer the distance, the better.”— Trainer Sasaki
Other Noteworthy Contenders
Feerenberg
Untapped potential with a blistering 11.5s final furlong. High course suitability.
Peter Site
Likely front-runner with stamina pedigree. Will try to set the pace and control the race.
Platinum Dream
A “race-fit” type who may outperform his training times. Possesses sufficient power and stamina.
Tamamo Ace
Stamina is a question mark, but his raw speed from sire World Ace could be a decisive factor.
Comparative Training Data
| Horse Name | Date | Course | Time (Furlongs) | Action | Evaluation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ecolo Duel | 12/24 | MiW (Good) | 83.4-67.5-52.7-38.4-12.1 | Handily | S |
| (1-Week Prior) | 12/17 | MiW (Good) | 81.5-66.0-51.4-37.7-12.1 | Strong | – |
| June Velocity | 12/24 | RiCW (Heavy) | 86.3-71.2-56.1-40.3-12.6 | Handily | A |
| (Weekend) | 12/20 | RiCW (Slight Heavy) | 82.1-67.1-52.3-37.7-11.6 | Full | – |
| Neviim | 12/24 | RiGate (Heavy) | 53.6-39.5-25.7-13.0 (4F) | Slight Full | A |
| Feerenberg | 12/24 | MiW (Good) | 83.8-67.6-52.7-38.1-11.5 | Strong | A |
| Peter Site | 12/24 | MiW (Good) | 99.6-83.1-69.1-54.5-12.0 | Strong | B+ |
| Tangent Arc | 12/24 | MiW (Good) | 66.5-51.4-37.1-11.6 (5F) | Handily | B |
Final Evaluation & Race Prediction
Predicted Race Scenario
Expect Peter Site to set a steady pace from the front. June Velocity will likely track the leader, while favorite Ecolo Duel settles mid-pack. The “stamina monster” Neviim will bide his time at the rear. The race will truly begin after the second passage of the Great Hedge, where stamina becomes the deciding factor.
Top Pick: Ecolo Duel
The clear favorite. His training, pedigree, and maturity signal that his previous victory was no fluke. He is in exceptional form and is the horse to beat.
Upset Potential: Neviim
The primary challenger. If the race becomes a grueling test of endurance, his stamina could prove decisive in the final stretch. A significant threat.
Key Question: June Velocity
Possesses top-tier ability but must prove his mettle on the unique Nakayama course. A strategic ride could see his speed prevail.
Dark Horse: Feerenberg
An intriguing prospect with explosive finishing speed. Could challenge for a top spot if the race unfolds favorably.
english
english
english
english
english
english