An in-depth analysis of the conditions and workout evaluations for top contenders in the Poinsettia Stakes 2025. We break down the final workouts of favorites like Wonder Dean and Wayne’s Thieu, and examine their suitability for the Hanshin Dirt 1800m based on their pedigrees.
Key Takeaways
- ➤Wonder Dean: Shows no signs of fatigue from his last race, maintaining top form with sharp, agile movements.
- ➤Wayne’s Thieu: Returning from a refreshing break, is in excellent condition and shows high aptitude for the course.
- ➤Seize the Throne: Thoroughly trained, resulting in a leaner physique and an outstanding finishing kick.
- ➤Pedigree Pointers: The pedigrees of the main contenders suggest strong suitability for the Hanshin Dirt 1800m.
- ➤Wildcards: Horses making their dirt debut or switching from turf could be the key to the race’s outcome.
Table of Contents
- Workout Analysis: Contender Conditions
- Deep Dive: Pedigree Analysis
- Race Preview & Key Points
- Final Prediction
Workout Analysis: Contender Conditions
Based on this week’s final workouts, here is our evaluation of the key contenders’ conditions.
Wonder Dean
Workout (12/17): Ritto Hillside (Good)B: Good Form
55.0 – 39.4 – 25.2 – 12.5 (Canter)
Finished level with Gaura Disco on the outside. Showcased sharp, agile leg action, giving an impression of speed that surpassed the recorded time. Shows no signs of fatigue from his “Mochinoki Sho” victory and appears ready to perform at his best.
Wayne’s Thieu
Workout (12/17): Ritto CW (Good)B: Well Prepared
90.6 – 71.1 – 54.4 – 38.6 – 11.9 (Canter)
Trainer Nakauchida personally handled the reins, displaying a light and energetic stride throughout. His preparation has been smooth following a refreshing break. His responsiveness is excellent, and he seems ready to fire even after a three-month layoff.
Seize the Throne
Workout (12/17): Ritto Hillside (Good)B: Good Condition
54.5 – 39.1 – 24.7 – 12.1 (Urged)
Has been meticulously trained using both the hillside track and the main course. This week, he galloped up the hill with a powerful form and an excellent finishing kick. He appears leaner and more toned than he did for the JBC Nisai Yushun.
Rock Ptarmigan
Workout (12/17): Ritto Hillside (Good)B: Improving
54.0 – 39.8 – 25.7 – 12.5 (Canter)
While his partner was pushed hard, he finished level with ease under a hold. He’s full of vigor, and his condition is clearly on the rise as he heads into his dirt debut.
Deep Dive: Pedigree Analysis
Examining the suitability of top contenders for this race’s conditions (Hanshin Dirt 1800m) from a bloodline perspective.
| Horse | Sire | Dam’s Sire | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wonder Dean | Dee Majesty | Wonder Acute | Though his sire was a Satsuki Sho winner, his dam’s sire won the JBC Classic. His high aptitude for the dirt 1800m was proven in his last race. |
| Wayne’s Thieu | Into Mischief | Cairo Prince | Sired by top North American stallion Into Mischief. A pure dirt sprinter/miler pedigree combining speed and power. |
| Seize the Throne | Kizuna | Frankel | Kizuna’s progeny are versatile and can handle dirt. The stamina from his dam’s sire, Frankel, makes the tough Hanshin dirt track a favorable condition. |
| T M Sunray | Le Vent Se Leve | Rulership | His sire was the dirt champion Le Vent Se Leve. Inherits his father’s power on dirt, and the extension to 1800m should pose no problem. |
| Justin le Mans | Suave Richard | Frankel | From the increasingly prominent sire Suave Richard. While his dam’s side is European turf pedigree, a switch to dirt could unlock new potential. |
Race Preview & Key Points
This year’s Poinsettia Stakes features a compact field of ten, yet it is packed with horses that have proven records in graded and open stakes races.
Wonder Dean is expected to live up to his status as the favorite. In his last race, the Mochinoki Sho, he demonstrated the mental fortitude to handle kickback, a crucial trait. Meanwhile, Wayne’s Thieu delivered a crushing 1.1-second victory in his debut at this very course and distance (Hanshin Dirt 1800m), proving his exceptional course suitability.
The key variable will be how the newcomers to dirt, like Rock Ptarmigan (sired by Siskin), and other horses transitioning from turf racing, will adapt to the deep, demanding dirt of the Hanshin track.
Final Prediction
For a more detailed race pace analysis, specific betting strategies, and our final top pick, please check out the forecaster’s profile on netkeiba via the link below.View Forecaster Profile on netkeiba
Disclaimer: While we strive for accuracy, please always verify final entries, odds, and results with the official race organizer.
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