This report delves into the Ohi Horse Racing events of December 4, 2025, dissecting Race 1 (“3-Year-Old Thoroughbreds”) and Race 3 (“3-Year-Old and Up Thoroughbreds”). It leverages AI predictions, expert analysis, pedigree data, and stable insights to uncover prime contenders and strategic betting opportunities.
Focus Races: Race 1 (Chimal) and Race 3 (Glass Greed) identified for their strong winning potential.
Underestimated Value: Horses with significant potential value based on AI win rates and Expected Return (EV) are highlighted.
Key AI Metrics: AI Predicted Win Rate, Place Rate, and Expected Return (EV > 100 indicates a ‘buy’).
Prologue: The Truth Hidden in the Dust
The Ohi Racecourse on December 4, 2025, presents a unique winter challenge. Anti-freezing agents and dry sand can complicate track conditions, demanding horses with exceptional “power” and “stamina.” Our analysis integrates comprehensive data, including AI predictions, to navigate these complexities and pinpoint the “inevitability” of certain outcomes.
Venue
Ohi Racecourse
Conditions
Winter Season
Key Horses
Chimal & Glass Greed
Race 1: “3-Year-Old Thoroughbreds” Analysis
Recommended Favorite: Chimal (No. 9)
AI Evaluation:
Predicted Win Rate: 34.7% (1st)
Predicted Place Rate (Top 2): 56.8% (1st)
Predicted Place Rate (Top 3): 72.9% (1st)
AI Predicted Expected Return (EV): 181 (1st)
Key Factors:
Ideal pedigree for Ohi mile races.
“Sustained good form” in training.
Significant weight allowance (☆55kg).
High EV indicates underestimation and value.
Chimal’s robust AI metrics, combined with its strong pedigree and trainer’s confidence, position it as a reliable favorite with significant betting value.
Rival: Danon Cruiser (No. 1)
AI Evaluation:
Predicted Win Rate: 34.0% (2nd)
AI Predicted Expected Return (EV): 157 (6th)
A strong JRA transfer with a world-class pedigree. However, its lower EV and risk from the innermost gate are points of caution.
Other Notables:
Jackpot (No. 3): High EV (168), potential dark horse.
Horai Show (No. 2): Blinkers for sharpness, potential for surprise.
Subnorana (No. 7): Notable AI EV (146), long shot potential.
Race 3: “3-Year-Old and Up Thoroughbreds” Analysis
Recommended Favorite: Glass Greed (No. 3)
AI Evaluation:
Predicted Win Rate: 53.6% (1st)
Predicted Place Rate (Top 2): 81.7% (1st)
Predicted Place Rate (Top 3): 96.1% (1st)
AI Predicted Expected Return (EV): 143 (5th)
Key Factors:
Exceptional 96.1% place rate denotes near certainty.
Pedigree strong for Ohi middle-distance races.
Superior training performance.
Handled by Ohi master jockey Yano.
Glass Greed is presented as an “absolute champion” in this race. Its phenomenal place rate and proven ability suggest a dominant performance, making it the central piece of betting strategies.
Quest for Second Place
Sweet Lotus (No. 5): Strong speed, top candidate for 2nd.
Escaramuza (No. 1): Consistent, potential to secure a place from inner gate.
Villa Starry (No. 12): Dark horse with high EV (142) and upward trend.
Antansion (No. 6): Transfer debut, potential for surprise 2nd.
The race for second place is where the intrigue lies, with Sweet Lotus, Escaramuza, and the promising Villa Starry being key contenders.
Detailed Data Analysis
Race 1 Horse Analysis Matrix
No.
Horse Name
AI Win Rate
AI EV
Training Eval.
Stable Tone
Overall Eval.
9
Chimal
34.7%
181
A
Strong
◎ Favorite
1
Danon Cruiser
34.0%
157
B+
Hopeful
○ Contender
3
Jackpot
9.5%
168
B
Calm
▲ Dark Horse
2
Horai Show
6.9%
158
C
Creative
△ Place Contender
7
Subnorana
4.7%
146
C
Calm
△ Place Contender
10
Dotchinandai
4.2%
167
B
Cautious
X Dismissed
Race 3 Horse Analysis Matrix
No.
Horse Name
AI Win Rate
AI EV
Training Eval.
Stable Tone
Overall Eval.
3
Glass Greed
53.6%
143
S
Strong
◎ Banker
5
Sweet Lotus
16.6%
133
B
Calm
○ Contender
1
Escaramuza
7.4%
139
B+
Strong
▲ Dark Horse
12
Villa Starry
5.8%
142
B+
Positive
☆ Special Note
6
Antansion
6.2%
125
B
Cautious
△ Place Contender
Recommended Bets & Strategy
Ohi Race 1 Strategy
Aiming for High Returns with Chimal
Main Bet: Quinella (Winner Fixed) 9 → 1, 3 (Chimal wins, Danon Cruiser or Jackpot 2nd). Note: 9 → 3 is expected to yield a high payout.
Cover Bet: Trio (Two Horses Fixed) 1 – 9 – 2, 3, 7 (Involving high-EV dark horses for 3rd place).
Ohi Race 3 Strategy
The Courage to Trust Glass Greed
Banker Bet: Trifecta (1st Fixed) 3 → 1, 5, 12 → 1, 5, 6, 12 (Glass Greed 1st; Sweet Lotus, Escaramuza, Villa Starry for 2nd; Antansion also covered for 3rd).
Long Shot: Wide (Place Duet) 3 – 12 (Glass Greed and Villa Starry). High success rate if Glass Greed wins and Villa Starry places.
Report generated by AI, integrating advanced analytics and expert insights.
Disclaimer: Horse racing outcomes are inherently unpredictable. All betting decisions are made at the reader’s own risk.