Capella Stakes 2025
An in-depth analysis of workout performances and pedigree for the top contenders in Japan’s thrilling GIII dirt sprint.
New vs. Old
A major clash between rising three-year-olds with American speed bloodlines and seasoned older champions.
Tricky Track
The unique Nakayama Dirt 1200m course, with its turf start and steep uphill finish, tests both speed and power.
T O Elvis Shines
Top favorite T O Elvis earns a high evaluation for a sharp final workout, clocking an impressive 11.9s final furlong.
Table of Contents
Prologue: A Lightning-Fast Race
The 18th Capella Stakes (GIII), a prestigious dirt sprint, will be held on December 14, 2025, at Nakayama Racecourse. This race is significant in the Japanese dirt racing calendar, offering insights into the upcoming short-distance dirt races of the following year.
This year’s race presents an intriguing matchup between three-year-old horses with the latest speed bloodlines from the United States and experienced older horses. T O Elvis, known for overwhelming speed potential, and his rival Yamanin Chelqui are among the most anticipated three-year-olds. The older horses include last year’s winner Gabby’s Sister, as well as seasoned competitors like Kurojishijo and Chikappa.
This article thoroughly analyzes the “absolute ability” and “current form” of the runners, based on primary information such as the entry list, detailed workout data, and stable comments. Focusing on “workout” and “evaluation,” it aims to provide a deep analysis that goes beyond mere times, integrating pedigree backgrounds to guide readers in predicting the winner of this electrifying race.
Nakayama Dirt 1200m: Course Guide
Turf Start Bias
The most distinctive feature is the start on the turf course. The long run on grass before hitting the dirt gives horses in outer gates a physical advantage due to less friction and easier acceleration.
However, the innermost gate (“Gate 1”) has historically recorded the most wins in the Capella Stakes. This is attributed to horses with exceptional speed making a rocket-like start and running efficiently. Gate evaluation requires balancing the general “outer gate advantage” with this potent exception.
The Uphill Finish
After a blistering first 600m downhill, a steep uphill finish awaits, with an elevation change of 2.2 meters. This combination of “over-pace first half” and “steep final stretch” is the “magic” of this course.
Pure speedsters will falter on the climb, while pure powerhouses can’t keep the early pace. Victory demands a rare combination of cardiovascular function and muscle strength to maintain high speed and conquer the final ascent.
In-Depth Analysis of Top Contenders
T O Elvis
3-y-o Colt / 56kg / S. Sameshima
WORKOUT
S
Pedigree: Ultra-Speed Gene
Sire Volatile brings exceptional speed, while damsire Curlin adds stamina and power. A perfect “Speed x Power” blend for Nakayama’s demands.
Workout Evaluation: Excellent
Final workout showed moderate overall time but a noteworthy final furlong of 11.9s. Sharpness indicates peak condition despite a layoff.
Yamanin Chelqui
3-y-o Colt / 58kg / N. Iwata
WORKOUT
A+
Pedigree: Japanese-American Hybrid
Sire Four Wheel Drive (American Pharoah line) is ideal for Japanese dirt. Damsire from Sunday Silence line enhances affinity for turf, perfect for the turf start.
Workout Evaluation: Extremely Good
Very good overall time of 51.8s. Significant improvement from the previous week suggests being pushed hard has ignited its fighting spirit.
Ecoro Azel
3-y-o Colt / 56kg / D. Danono
WORKOUT
A
Pedigree: 100% Sprint Specialization
Both sire Shancelot and damsire Orientate are US BC Sprint winners. The ultimate “sprint-specialized” pedigree, a hallmark of trainer Hideyuki Mori.
Workout Evaluation: Stable
Conditioning complete with a strong workout the previous week. Final workout was free-running and achieved a good time, indicating peak physical and mental state.
Gabby’s Sister
4-y-o Filly / 56kg / H. Yoshida
WORKOUT
A
Pedigree: Grueling Race Strength
Sire Apollo Kingdom is known for toughness, damsire Special Week for stamina. A proven winner of last year’s race, confirming her course suitability.
Workout Evaluation: Top Tier
“Powerful stride” noted in final workout, suggesting she can handle the steep finish. Preparation for a repeat victory appears thorough and on track.
Analysis of Dark Horses
Candy Drive
Showing best form at six years old, clocking the fastest time on the Monbetsu track. Sire’s speed remains potent.
Kurojishijo
Son of prominent local sire Furioso. Good workout time suggests he could be a contender in a grueling race.
Tagano Mist
Showed a powerful stretch in its final workout. Chance for an upset if it can track smoothly on the outside.
Sunrise Amour
Recorded excellent times while running freely. Short-distance dirt ability is blooming with no condition concerns.
Don Amitie
Son of Asia Express, a sire with special affinity for this course. Improved form suggests potential for a turnaround.
Full Workout & Pedigree Data
| Horse Name | Sex/Age | Sire | Damsire | Final Workout | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ecoro Azel | C3 | Shancelot | Orientate | Ritto Woodchip 52.9-12.6 (Free) | Maintaining good form |
| A Trak | C4 | New Year’s Day | Symboli Kris S | Ritto Woodchip 54.1-12.2 (Free) | Lively movement |
| Gabby’s Sister | F4 | Apollo Kingdom | Special Week | Miho Woodchip 52.7-12.7 (Free) | Powerful stride |
| Culture Day | F4 | Fine Needle | Meiner Love | Ritto CW 52.9-11.0 (Free) | No decline in condition |
| Candy Drive | C6 | Candy Ride | Empire Maker | Monbetsu Woodchip 35.0-11.8 (Full) | Best in recent times |
| Kurojishijo | C6 | Furioso | Special Week | Ritto Woodchip 51.3-12.8 (Full) | Maintaining good condition |
| Sunrise Amour | C6 | Maurice | Taiki Shuttle | Ritto Woodchip 51.7-12.3 (Free) | Good body and movement |
| Jasper Gold | G7 | Khozan | Put It Back | Ritto Woodchip 52.9-12.9 (Slightly Full) | Lacking lightness |
| Star Pesca Ori | F5 | Sinister Minister | Genuine | Ritto Woodchip 56.2-13.1 (Free) | Steady stride |
| Tagano Mist | F4 | Majestic Warrior | Empire Maker | Ritto Woodchip 52.5-12.2 (Full) | Powerful stretch |
| Chikappa | C4 | Real Steel | Into Mischief | Ritto Woodchip 52.4-13.2 (Full) | Improves in race |
| T O Elvis | C3 | Volatile | Curlin | Ritto Woodchip 53.8-11.9 (Full) | Good condition despite layoff |
| Don Amitie | C5 | Asia Express | King Halo | Ritto Woodchip 54.9-12.1 (Strong) | Improved from last race |
| Nitto Bajil | C5 | Danon Legend | That’s the Plenty | Miho Woodchip 54.3-12.6 (Strong) | Energetic, but… |
| Pod Vader | C3 | Leontes | Daiwa Major | Miho Woodchip 53.3-12.0 (Free) | Good condition |
| Yamanin Chelqui | C3 | Four Wheel Drive | Yamanin Seraphim | Ritto Woodchip 51.8-12.4 (Full) | Good condition |
Conclusion: Clash of Speed Stars
The main focus of this year’s Capella Stakes is how the speed potential of the three-year-old horses, T O Elvis and Yamanin Chelqui, will fare on the specialized Nakayama Dirt course. Workout analyses show both horses clocking times that rival older horses, leaving no doubt about their potential.
T O Elvis’s sharp 11.9-second final furlong is particularly reminiscent of the winning pattern: a fast pace from the turf start, followed by a decisive burst in the final moments. However, older horses like last year’s winner Gabby’s Sister and a resurgent Sunrise Amour are also vying for the championship. The key will be who takes the lead, and how the horse in Gate 1 breaks from the start.
© 2024 AI Web Developer. Horse Racing Analysis.
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