RACE ANALYSIS & PREDICTIONS
December 24th, 2025
Key Takeaways
Slower Pace Expected
Okemaru’s withdrawal creates a “pace vacuum,” favoring front-running horses.
Kazutanger: Top Contender
Overall strength and a favorable Storm Cat bloodline for the Nagoya course make it a strong bet.
Bell Pit’s Home Advantage
The local champion’s 56kg weight and ideal race dynamics give it a strong chance to upset JRA rivals.
Bloodline Matters
Storm Cat and Gold Allure lineages are identified as key success factors on this course.
1. Course, Conditions & Pace Impact
New Nagoya Dirt 2000m
- ▶Early Pace: Inside-drawn front-runners retain an advantage despite a long straight to the first corner.
- ▶Corner Shape: Spiral curves enable sustained speed, making outside “makuri” moves effective.
- ▶Favorable Styles: Data shows a high win rate for horses leading or racing in forward positions.
Okemaru’s Withdrawal: The “Pace Vacuum”
The absence of this undefeated Triple Crown winner points to a slow-to-moderate pace, benefiting front-runners.
Potential New Front-Runners:
- Appealing Look (Gate 1, 54kg): Most likely to set the pace from the inside.
- Bell Pit (Gate 5, 56kg): Known for strong front-running ability.
- Kazutanger (Gate 7, 58kg): Can smoothly take a leading position.
Handicap & Weight Analysis
| # | Horse Name | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Derma Sotogake | 59.0kg |
| 7 | Kazutanger | 58.0kg |
| 9 | Revontulet | 57.0kg |
| 2 | Shin Medaisy | 56.0kg |
| 5 | Bell Pit | 56.0kg |
| 1 | Appealing Look | 54.0kg |
2. Detailed Analysis of Key Contenders
Kazutanger
JRA / Stallion/458.0kgJockey: Masahiro Kawada
A Mercury Cup winner in peak form, making it a strong favorite with no apparent weaknesses. The slower pace is advantageous, and jockey Masahiro Kawada’s skill is a major plus.
Bloodline:
Sire Deep Force (Storm Cat lineage) provides speed and power. Dam’s side includes Asakusa Kings for stamina. A perfect fit for 2000m at Nagoya.
Bell Pit
Hokkaido / Stallion/5 / 56.0kg / M. Kuwamura
Hokkaido’s top horse. Likely to secure a prime position. Its 56kg weight advantage could be the key to defeating the JRA horses.
Bloodline:
Sire Pyro is highly suited to local dirt, and dam’s sire Daiwa Major enhances its front-running ability.
Derma Sotogake
JRA / Stallion/5 / 59.0kg / T. Danno
A G1-class horse showing signs of recovery. The 59kg weight is challenging, but its inherent ability and class make it a formidable opponent.
Bloodline:
Mind Your Biscuits x Neo Universe pedigree excels in middle-distance dirt races.
Shin Medaisy
Kochi / Stallion/4 / 56.0kg / H. Yoshihara
Kochi’s star performer. Consistently performs well at Jpn3 level. With a 56kg weight and a versatile style, it’s a strong candidate for a top-three finish.
Bloodline:
Sire Copano Rickey (Gold Allure lineage) has a strong record at Nagoya. Dam adds stamina.
Appealing Look
JRA / Filly/4 / 54.0kg / K. Matsuyama
A sole female contender aiming for a wire-to-wire win. Its 54kg weight and inside gate are significant advantages. If it sets its own pace, it could be hard to catch.
Revontulet
JRA / Stallion/4 / 57.0kg / R. Sakai
A capable performer with G3 ability. Last-place finish is a concern, but has potential to rebound if it races smoothly from a forward position.
3. Bloodline Strategy
Storm Cat (ストームキャット) Bloodline
Imparts US speed and agility, excelling in cornering acceleration on Nagoya’s track.
Notable Horses: Kazutanger, Revontulet
Gold Allure (ゴールドアリュール) Lineage
Stamina-oriented Sunday Silence descendants that have shown exceptional strength in longer graded races at Nagoya.
Notable Horse: Shin Medaisy
Bloodline Conclusion
From a bloodline perspective, Kazutanger is rated highest due to ideal course suitability and strong form. Shin Medaisy is also a noteworthy contender with strong backing for long-distance races here.
4. Training & Condition
| Horse | Assessment |
|---|---|
| Derma SotogakeShows clear signs of recovery. Sharp workout times indicate highest level of improvement. | B+ |
| KazutangerSufficient load in workouts, in good condition and ready to perform. | B |
| RevontuletGood progress, no decline in condition. Expected to perform to ability. | B |
| Appealing LookMaintaining good condition. Final adjustments were satisfactory. | B |
5. Conclusion & Final Forecast
Key Prediction Points
- Front-Runner’s Paradise: A slow pace heavily favors front-runners.
- Kazutanger’s Reliability: The most reliable anchor due to form, bloodline, and race dynamics.
- Bell Pit’s Potential: Favorable weight gives it the power to challenge JRA contenders.
- Derma Sotogake’s Class: Superior record and recovery signs make it a threat despite the high weight.
◎
Main Prediction: Kazutanger
Peak form, favorable dynamics, and bloodline suitability.
○
Bell Pit
Strong Contender
▲
Derma Sotogake
Dark Horse
△ Potential Placers
Shin Medaisy, Appealing Look, RevontuletView Final Betting Strategy →
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