Is it a two-horse race between Sea Jam Blues & Basquiat Leon? A deep dive into the top contenders for the New Year’s Kawasaki Mile.
December 31, 2025
Key Takeaways
- ▶The “Hatsuyume Sho” for 3-year-olds will be held as the 11th race at Kawasaki on January 1, 2026.
- ▶Sea Jam Blues, with its powerful early speed, is a prime contender, maintaining excellent form as shown by its recent wire-to-wire victory.
- ▶The main rival is the accomplished Basquiat Leon. If the race pace suits, its signature late kick could see a major comeback.
- ▶Dark horse candidates include Valentine Gift, who is in great shape despite a layoff, and Kazuya, who boasts an attractive pedigree.
Analysis Index
- 1. Kawasaki 1600m: Course Analysis & Race Dynamics
- 2. Top Contender Analysis
- 3. Dark Horse Potential
- 4. Conclusion: Betting Strategy
Kawasaki 1600m: Course Analysis & Race Dynamics
The 1600m dirt course at Kawasaki Racecourse is known for its tight turns, making track position critically important. Especially in races for inexperienced 3-year-olds, pacing can be erratic, making early speed a significant advantage.
Looking at this field, Sea Jam Blues (#11), who won wire-to-wire in its last race, has drawn an outside gate. The intensity of the early pace will likely depend on whether this horse can secure a leading position smoothly or if horses from the inner gates challenge for the lead.
Top Contender Analysis: Two Polished Runners
The Hatsuyume Sho appears to center around two horses whose recent performances have been particularly impressive.
Unstoppable Frontrunner?Sea Jam Blues
Sire: MoaninDamsire: Harbinger
The main focus is on Sea Jam Blues, who delivered a spectacular front-running victory in the Sparky Special (Kawasaki 1400m) on Dec 19. The running line “1-1-1-1” on a slightly heavy track shows a complete wire-to-wire win. Sired by Moanin, a successful dirt sprinter/miler, and with stamina influence from damsire Harbinger, this horse has both speed and endurance. Despite the short one-week turnaround, the commanding nature of the last win suggests top form, making this horse the one to beat.
Proven Talent Aiming for a Rebound: Basquiat Leon
Sire: Espoir CityDamsire: Fuji Kiseki
Basquiat Leon is a contender that cannot be overlooked. Sired by Espoir City, a legendary name in dirt racing, the horse has a decent affinity for the Kawasaki course. In its last start, a special weight race (1600m) on Dec 18, it finished 3rd (0.8s behind) as the third favorite. While it settled mid-pack, its final 3-furlong time was respectable. With jockey Keita Nishi staying on board and another short turnaround, the question is how much it can improve. A fast pace would play perfectly into this horse’s closing kick.
Dark Horse Potential: Pedigree & Training Insights
Beyond the top two, a few others have the potential to cause an upset.
Sharp Despite the Layoff:Valentine Gift
Sire: SaturnaliaDamsire: Indian Charlie
Drawn in the innermost gate, Valentine Gift returns from a layoff since October. Training reports note it’s in “good shape despite the break,” suggesting the rest has been beneficial. While sire Saturnalia is known for turf runners, the American bloodline from damsire Indian Charlie provides dirt aptitude. Possessing the power to handle Kawasaki’s deep dirt, this horse could make a serious challenge if it can save ground from the inside post.
High Potential Sleeper:Kazuya
Sire: Mind Your BiscuitsDamsire: Deep Impact
Kazuya is another horse with significant pedigree appeal. Sired by Mind Your Biscuits, a dominant force in modern dirt breeding, its potential is high. Although it finished a disappointing 7th on Dec 18, that race didn’t reveal its true ability. Training notes indicate a “light workout,” so its race-day condition will be key. With a clean trip, this horse has the talent to surprise everyone.
Conclusion: Betting Strategy for the Hatsuyume Sho
Who will be celebrating in the winner’s circle to kick off 2026? The key to this race seems to be building tickets around the front-running Sea Jam Blues, with strong consideration for the closing threat of Basquiat Leon. The well-rested Valentine Gift also warrants respect as a dangerous wildcard.
For our final, AI-selected picks and betting strategy, including exactas and trifectas, please see our complete analysis. Our AI model weighs hundreds of factors to maximize hit rate and return on investment.
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