目次 けやき杯(3歳) 2025 …
A deep dive into the high-stakes B2/B3 class showdown, analyzing the risks and rewards for top contenders like Land Planet and Dream Japan.Published on December 14, 2025
The “Kazahana Tokubetsu,” set to light up the night at Kawasaki Racecourse on December 15, 2025, is a main event held under the turbulent conditions of a B2 and B3 class mix. In South Kanto horse racing, these late-season mixed races are crucial tests that forecast the following year’s stars, creating a complex web of strategies from each stable.
A peculiar distortion occurs in mixed-class races, especially between B2 and B3. The higher-class B2 horses, while having better records, often struggle with recent slumps or the burden of heavier weights. In contrast, B3 horses, though challenging a higher class, frequently leverage their momentum and weight advantage to outperform their superiors. This field is a classic example, with rising 3-year-olds clashing with seasoned veterans, hiding potential performance gaps that odds alone cannot reveal.
Before drawing conclusions, we must understand the physical and statistical tendencies of the Kawasaki 1600m course. It’s a tricky track where gate position and race development are often more critical than raw ability.
The race starts from an extension chute near the 4th corner. While the stretch to the first corner seems long, the fight for position is intense. Kawasaki’s spiral curve design features tight corners, causing significant distance loss for less agile horses or those forced to run wide. The final straight is short, making positioning at the 4th corner decisive.
The “inside gate advantage” theory is extremely pronounced here. Horses in gates 1-3 can secure an economic path along the rail, minimizing distance loss. Conversely, outside gates (7-8) are a distinct disadvantage, forcing horses to either expend energy cutting in or risk being pushed wide.
Jockey: Ryo Nobahata (57kg)Form:Recently focused on 2000m. Finished 2nd in a 1600m race four starts back. Shorter distance is a plus. Could hold on if he gets a clean run from the inside gate.Training:Solid workout on 12/11. No signs of decline.AI Win Rate:6.1% (Rank 7)
Jockey: Nao Machida (57kg)Form:Fast, but lacks a finishing kick since moving up in class. Needs to find his rhythm.Training:Lagged significantly in paired work. Appears to be a step away from peak condition.AI Win Rate:6.3% (Rank 6)
Jockey: Takashi Motohashi (57kg)Form:Still strong at 7. Decent 4th place return from a layoff. Expected to improve, making him a dark horse.Training:Good movement in solo work. Shows improvement for his second race back.AI Win Rate:2.1% (Rank 10)
Jockey: Ryu Kimagezuka (57kg)Form:The horse with the most momentum. Won decisively by 0.5s last race despite weight gain. In his prime and a top contender even in a higher class.Training:Maintains good form with a focus on finishing strong.AI Win Rate:6.9% (Rank 5)
Jockey: Isamu Furuoka (55kg)Form:Struggling, with 11th and 9th place finishes in his last two races. A tough challenge is expected.Training:Evaluation notes “not quite at peak condition.”AI Win Rate:0.3% (Rank 12)
Jockey: Tsubasa Sasagawa (57kg)Form:Experienced at this level but inconsistent recently. His biggest asset is jockey Tsubasa Sasagawa, whose skill could bring a dramatic turnaround.Training:Light work focused on maintaining condition.AI Win Rate:2.6% (Rank 9)
Jockey: Takayuki Yano (57kg)Form:Showed top-class ability with a strong win three starts back. The Kawasaki mile is a favorite track (2nd in Crown Cup). His biggest enemy is a tendency to start slow.Training:Excellent condition, easily outpaced a lesser horse in training.AI Win Rate:27.1% (Rank 1)
Jockey: Shigeharu Honda (57kg)Form:Won his first race after transferring stables. His record from his time in the DOEi league shows real talent. The extended mile distance is likely a plus.Training:S-Rank Evaluation. In top form, posting excellent times effortlessly. Top-class movement.AI Win Rate:10.8% (Rank 4)
Jockey: Ryu Tatsuhiro (55kg)Form:A consistent performer but struggles to win. Seems to lack the final punch needed here.Training:Lacks impact compared to the top contenders.AI Win Rate:0.7% (Rank 11)
Jockey: Dai Yamamoto (54kg)Form:Finished 2nd in a JRA exchange race. A class above in this field of local horses. Has sustained speed and can handle the Kawasaki mile.Training:Moves lightly and appears to be in good shape.AI Win Rate:21.2% (Rank 2)
Jockey: Sho Hozono (57kg)Form:A front-runner who aims for a lone lead. If he can dictate his own pace, he’s a potential upset.Training:Moves with ease, condition is holding steady.AI Win Rate:12.4% (Rank 3)
Jockey: Haruka Sano (56kg)Form:Lacks form since returning and shows signs of age. The wide outside gate at Kawasaki 1600m is a major disadvantage.Training:No notable highlights in training.AI Win Rate:3.0% (Rank 8)
| Rank | # | Horse | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | Dream Japan | 27.1% |
| 2 | 10 | Gentle Touch | 21.2% |
| 3 | 11 | Yukiguni | 12.4% |
| 4 | 8 | Sound Bach | 10.8% |
| 5 | 4 | Land Planet | 6.9% |
| Rank | Horse | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| S | Sound Bach | Excellent time at a canter. Exceptional sharpness. |
| A | Vib Air | Pushed hard, sufficient load. |
| A | Dream Japan | Finished ahead with ease at a canter. |
| B | Monge Hagane | Pushed. Decent movement. |
1
Start to 1st Corner: #11 Yukiguni will push for the lead from the outside. #1 Vib Air, #4 Land Planet, and #8 Sound Bach will chase for a good position. The race for #7 Dream Japan hinges on its start; a delay means a mid-pack race.
2
Backstretch to 3rd Corner: Yukiguni will likely settle into a moderate to slow pace. The versatile #10 Gentle Touch will begin to make an early move.
3
4th Corner to Finish: The field will bunch up on the tight corner. Vib Air will try to hold on from the inside, while Land Planet makes a move from the center. Sound Bach, and potentially Dream Japan, will be closing from the outside.
#8 Sound Bach
Peak physical condition confirmed by an S-rank training evaluation. His proven ability and the longer distance make him a major threat. A powerful challenger.
#4 Land Planet
His last dominant win signals he’s reaching his prime. Perfectly suited for this course and drawn a great gate. The AI’s lower rating creates excellent betting value.
#7 Dream Japan
The data-proven AI favorite. Unbeatable if he gets a clean start. However, the gate issue is a significant risk, making him a high-reward, high-risk play.
This report provides a deep dive into each contender’s potential. For my final betting slip, including specific bet types and stake allocation based on last-minute odds and paddock conditions, follow the link below.See the Final Picks (netkeiba)
※ This report is based on information available as of December 14, 2025. Please be aware of potential changes due to weather or track conditions.