A deep dive into the top contenders for the Grade 1 race for two-year-olds at Kasamatsu Racecourse on Dec 30, 2025. We analyze Kanazawa’s star MT Geek, local hopes Stay Free & River Street, and break down the key factors for this thrilling showdown.
Race Highlights
- ✦MT Geek from Kanazawa is the clear favorite, riding an explosive four-race winning streak.
- ✦Local rivals Stay Free, a recent course winner, and the proven River Street are poised to challenge.
- ✦The race will hinge on “recent momentum” and how well challengers from other regions adapt to the Kasamatsu track.
- ✦Keep an eye on pedigrees: MT Geek (sired by Danon Premium) and Moon Warrior (by Best Warrior) boast strong dirt aptitude.
Race Overview: Raiden Leader Kinen 2025
| Race Name | 29th Raiden Leader Kinen (SP1) |
|---|---|
| Date | Tuesday, December 30, 2025 |
| Post Time | 15:20 (Race 10) |
| Track | Kasamatsu Racecourse |
| Distance | 1400m Dirt (Right-handed) |
| Entries | 11 (Monday Rouryu scratched) |
Key Prediction Factors
The Challenger: MT Geek’s Dominant Form
MT Geek, invading from Kanazawa, has shown overwhelming power in recent starts. In the “Atenoki Sho” (1500m) on Dec 16, he dominated on a sloppy track, winning by a 0.8-second margin. With four consecutive wins, his momentum is unmatched. His speed and front-running style will be his greatest assets over Kasamatsu’s 1400m course.
The Home Guard: Kasamatsu’s Defense
Leading the local defense is Stay Free, who won the “Snowdrop Sho” (1400m) on Dec 12. Horses from the “Junior Crown” on the same day, like Moon Warrior (4th) and Reversal Top (3rd), are also expected to show improvement with two weeks of recovery and preparation.
Top Contender Breakdown
MT Geek (Colt, 2)
Sire: Danon Premium / Damsire: Vermilion
Combining the speed of sire Danon Premium with the dirt prowess of damsire Vermilion. He showcased his power in his last start at Kanazawa (Dec 16), pushing from the front to seal the win. His speed is a major threat at 1400m, making him the prime contender for the title.
Stay Free (Filly, 2)
Sire: Garbo / Damsire: Meiner Select
Sire Garbo was a versatile horse on both turf and dirt, while damsire Meiner Select excelled in dirt sprints. In her last start (Dec 12) at Kasamatsu 1400m, she broke from a good position to win in 1:31.4. The home-track advantage makes her a serious threat.
Moon Warrior (Colt, 2)
Sire: Best Warrior / Damsire: Admire Moon
Sired by the dirt mile champion Best Warrior, his pedigree screams short-distance dirt specialist. Although he finished 4th in the Junior Crown (1600m) last time out (Dec 12), the cutback in distance for this race makes him one to watch for a rebound performance.
River Street (Filly, 2)
Sire: Suzuka Causeway / Damsire: Furioso
With Suzuka Causeway and Furioso in her bloodline, she’s bred for success on regional dirt tracks. She has proven class, finishing 2nd in the graded Next Star Kasamatsu stakes in October. Despite a layoff, her raw talent cannot be underestimated.
Other Challengers to Watch
- Gold Lane (Aichi): Sired by Mischievous Alex. A dark horse if he has recovered from his race cancellation in the Gold Wing Sho on Dec 10.
- Mimosa no Kisetsu (Aichi): Sired by Kitasan Mikazuki. A front-runner with a solid record at Nagoya who could shake things up early.
Final Verdict
The 2025 Raiden Leader Kinen is shaping up to be MT Geek’s race to lose, given his spectacular recent form. The main question is whether local hero Stay Free and the classy River Street can mount a serious challenge. From a pedigree perspective, it’s a battle between the speed of Danon Premium’s offspring and the proven dirt specialists.
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