目次 開催概要とレースの位置づけレース環…
A deep dive into bookmaker odds, value bets, and strategic insights for the Turf World Championship.
Romantic Warrior is a strong favorite, but lacks value. Look to Spirit Dancer for potential place bets.
Ka Ying Rising is a near certainty. Bet “Without Favourite” on Satono Reve or Lugal.
The most competitive race. Japan’s Soul Rush presents high expected value for win/place bets.
Goliath is a high-potential longshot. A safer bet is a quinella between Gialloetto and Urban Chic.
The Path to a Historic Feat
Romantic Warrior is the central figure, aiming for a fourth consecutive win. The horse demonstrated strong form by winning the Jockey Club Cup (G2) convincingly.
Japan’s contenders include G1 winner Bellagio Opera and last year’s third-place finisher Tastiera. From Europe, Spirit Dancer brings good form but faces questions about the fast track.
| Horse Name | bet365 | Wm Hill | P. Power |
|---|---|---|---|
| Romantic Warrior (HK) | 1.20 | 1.22 | 1.18 |
| Bellagio Opera (JPN) | 6.00 | 5.50 | 6.00 |
| Liberty Island (JPN) | 9.00 | 8.50 | 9.50 |
| Spirit Dancer (GB) | 21.00 | 19.00 | 23.00 |
| Tastiera (JPN) | 34.00 | 34.00 | 41.00 |
Romantic Warrior’s odds suggest an over 80% win probability, making win bets unappealing. Tastiera’s odds of 34.00+ offer potential value for place bets, considering its previous performance.
The Reign of a New Emperor
The sprint division is dominated by Ka Ying Rising, who boasts a 15-race winning streak and is considered the world’s leading sprinter. His victory is treated as a near-certainty.
The market has previously seen odds fluctuations due to false rumors, highlighting the need for vigilance against last-minute shifts.
| Horse Name | bet365 | Ladbrokes | Betfair Ex. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ka Ying Rising (HK) | 1.08 | 1.10 | 1.12 |
| Satono Reve (JPN) | 13.00 | 12.00 | 14.50 |
| Fast Network (HK) | 21.00 | 20.00 | 23.00 |
| Lugal (JPN) | 51.00 | 51.00 | 60.00 |
Betting on Ka Ying Rising offers poor risk-reward. The suggested strategy is to bet on Satono Reve or Lugal in “Betting Without Favourite” markets, where Lugal offers more realistic odds.
A New Era of Competition
With the retirement of Golden Sixty, the 2025 Hong Kong Mile is wide open. Key contenders include last year’s runner-up Voyage Bubble and the in-form Galaxy Patch.
Japan’s contender Soul Rush, winner of the Mile Championship, is a strong performer internationally and looks undervalued.
| Horse Name | bet365 | Wm Hill | Oddschecker Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voyage Bubble (HK) | 4.00 | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| Galaxy Patch (HK) | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 |
| Notable Speech (GB) | 7.00 | 6.50 | 7.00 |
| Soul Rush (JPN) | 8.00 | 9.00 | 8.00 |
This race offers the most betting opportunities. Soul Rush’s odds of 8.00 are particularly attractive, suggesting it might be “underpriced” by bookmakers and represents a significant value bet.
A Global Showdown
The Vase traditionally favors international runners. Last year’s winner, Gialloetto, is aiming for a repeat.
Key contenders include Japan’s Urban Chic and European G1 winner Goliath, who appears to be a significant longshot with high potential.
| Horse Name | bet365 | Wm Hill | P. Power |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gialloetto (GB) | 3.75 | 4.00 | 3.75 |
| Sosie (FR) | 4.00 | 4.50 | 4.33 |
| Urban Chic (JPN) | 6.50 | 7.00 | 6.50 |
| Goliath (FR) | 15.00 | 17.00 | 15.00 |
Goliath’s odds of 15.00+ are exceptionally high for a G1 King George winner, offering a high-risk, high-reward opportunity. Urban Chic at 6.50 is also an attractive option.
World’s largest, offers early odds. Tends to be stricter on Japanese horses, potentially offering higher odds for them.
A British institution strong in European racing. May offer better odds on European horses and outsiders.
Strong presence in the Australian market, with accurate assessments of Australian-bred horses.
Known for strong promotions and expanded place payout structures, useful for hedging in competitive races.
While Romantic Warrior and Ka Ying Rising are heavy favorites, the real value lies in identifying undervalued contenders in the more competitive races.
Disclaimer: Odds and information are based on the assumed betting landscape in early December 2025 and are subject to change. Betting is at your own risk. Please comply with local laws and regulations.