In-depth Analysis & Prediction

A deep dive into the Nakayama turf 2500m race, examining top contenders, course dynamics, and AI-driven insights for the December 27th event.

The Arima Kinen Test

The Nakayama 2500m course mirrors the prestigious Arima Kinen, demanding exceptional stamina and tactical adaptability from all contenders.

Amakihi’s Pedigree

A strong bloodline and superior training position Amakihi as a central figure, despite a recent setback in the G1 Kikuka Sho.

Form & Favoritism

Mikuni Inspire’s course record and Rosa San Rival’s high CPU rating make them formidable challengers to watch.

Analysis Index

Course AnalysisContendersDark HorsesSimulationConclusion

Decoding the “Six Corners of Doom”

The Nakayama turf 2500m course is infamous for its demanding nature, requiring a rare blend of stamina, agility, and pedigree suitability. Its unique layout presents a tactical puzzle for jockeys and a grueling physical test for the horses.

Race Dynamics

• Six Corners: Navigating six turns over one and a half laps of the compact track demands skillful cornering and positioning.
• Steep Finish: Two ascents of the sharp finishing straight, with the second coming after 2400m, brutally tests the stamina of even the fittest contenders.
• “Makuri” Advantage: The short final straight makes late charges difficult. Horses that make a sustained move from the backstretch (“makuri” tactics) often gain a decisive advantage.

December Track Bias

As the meeting progresses, the inner turf shows wear. While front-runners are typically favored, the grueling nature of Arima Kinen week allows powerful, stamina-laden closers to become more effective.

Gate Advantage

Surprisingly, 2025 data shows outer gates (6th & 8th) have not been disadvantaged. Avoiding the worn inner track for a smoother acceleration run may offset the extra distance covered.

In-depth Analysis of Contenders

Amakihi

Colt, 3yo, Miho – Eiji Konoe Stable

4.8xOdds

△CPU

◎My Rating

Pedigree: An exceptional bloodline, sired by Black Tide (sire of Kitasan Black) out of Triple Crown winner Apapane. Expected to excel over long, demanding courses.

Analysis: Despite a G1 setback, the experience over 3000m provides a stamina base. A previous win against older horses shows class. My Rating of “◎ (Main Bet)” suggests superior ability.

Training: Final workout showed “Good condition despite layoff.” The addition of cheekpieces is a positive factor.

Mikuni Inspire

Colt, 3yo, Miho – Toru Hayashi Stable

3.5xOdds

▲CPU

DarkMy Rating

Pedigree: Damsire Timber Country injects significant stamina, giving a strong affinity for tough tracks despite a middle-distance sire.

Analysis: A convincing wire-to-wire victory on this exact course and distance is a major highlight. AI comment “Carrying momentum forward” emphasizes peak form.

Training: Final workout was described as “Impressive movement,” indicating excellent condition and agility.

Red Terios

Colt, 4yo, Miho – Shinya Koga Stable

5.4xOdds

—CPU

○My Rating

Pedigree: Sire Justaway imparts growth and distance suitability. European dam line provides resilience for attrition battles.

Analysis: A previous winner on this course. My Rating of “○ (Runner-up)” is a strong endorsement. Excels in races requiring a long, sustained run.

Training: Final workout showed excellent acceleration. Comment “Improved after a race” suggests a rising condition curve.

Rosa San Rival

Colt, 4yo, Ritto – Tomokazu Takano Stable

5.9xOdds

◎CPU

△My Rating

Pedigree: Sire Rulership is known for producing winners at non-standard Nakayama distances. Dam is from the prestigious Shirayukihime line.

Analysis: A recent win over 2600m on a tight track demonstrates suitability. The CPU’s “◎ (Main Bet)” rating is a powerful signal.

Training: Final workout displayed “Solid legwork” on a heavy track, proving the power needed for Nakayama’s steep finish.

Potential Upsets & Dark Horses

Aster Buzie (13.9x Odds / CPU: ○ / My: ○)

Sire Orfevre was a two-time winner here. Outstanding consistency and high ratings from both systems make this 5yo the most attractive value bet.

Saxon Jeanne (11.1x Odds / CPU: △ / My: Dark)

A filly with strong European bloodlines. The AI notes to “Beware of leading and holding on.” If she can control the pace, she has a real chance.

Speed Rich (20.9x Odds / CPU: ▲ / My: ▲)

Damsire Heart’s Cry provides distance ability. The CPU’s dark horse rating (▲) is noteworthy, suggesting upset potential if the race unfolds favorably.

Race Simulation

The pace will likely be set by Mikuni Inspire or Saxon Jeanne. The race’s decisive phase will begin on the backstretch of the second lap, where sustained speedsters like Rosa San Rival and Red Terios will make their moves.

The key will be the final steep climb, pitting the leaders’ stamina against the closers’ finishing kick. Horses positioned in the top five by the final corner hold the strongest advantage.

Overall Evaluation & Conclusion

S

Main Bet Candidate – Amakihi (#3)

Superior pedigree signifies the best stamina in the field. Excellent training and a top rating from our analysis make him the central contender, poised for a decisive victory.

A

Runner-up / Dark Horse

Mikuni Inspire (#14): Proven course form and momentum are undeniable.
Rosa San Rival (#4): High CPU rating and suitability for the course make him a major threat.

B

Potential for Place / Supporting Bets

Red Terios (#6): A Nakayama 2500m specialist showing improved form.
Aster Buzie (#7): The most attractive dark horse with high ratings and consistency.

Considering pedigree, 3-year-old growth potential, and weight advantage, Amakihi is our central contender for the Grateful Stakes 2025.View Final Prediction & Betting Slip

*Disclaimer: This analysis is based on information available as of December 27, 2025. Betting is at your own risk.