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Gold Wing Award 2025: Thorough Analysis of Pedigree and Times of Leading Horses [Nagoya Keiba]

Summary of Key Points

Main Pick: Astrabianco

Exceptional time of 1:35.8 over 1500m and a pedigree favoring extended distances.

Second Pick: Queens Jolly

Possesses the second-best recorded time, leading other horses in absolute ability.

Dark Horse: Yosari

Unbeaten from Kasamatsu with unknown high potential to challenge the main pick.

Race Prediction

A high-paced race favoring Astrabianco to overtake tiring front-runners late.

1. Introduction: The Summit Battle

Positioning of the Gold Wing Award

The 64th Gold Wing Award (SP1) is a crucial stepping stone for 2-year-old horses in the Tokai region, leading to classic races and potentially national-level dirt grade races. This year’s field is stacked, featuring the overwhelmingly fast Astrabianco, graded stakes winner Hachihachi Rose, and the undefeated Yosari. The demanding 1700m distance will truly test and select the most capable young horses.

Nagoya Dirt 1700m: Required Aptitude

Victory on this four-corner course requires more than just speed. Key aptitudes include:

  • Cornering and Agility: Crucial for saving ground and securing a good position.
  • Stamina and Temperament: Essential for the 1700m distance and conserving energy.
  • Resilience: The power to handle long sprints and demanding race conditions.

2. Thorough Analysis of All Participating Horses

1

Gold Lane

Filly, 2yo – Jockey: Masaru Maruno

Pedigree: Speed-oriented sire, needs to prove stamina for this distance.

Performance: Time of 1:38.5 is not competitive with the top contenders.

Prediction: Inner draw helps, but a top-five finish is the likely ceiling.

2

Hachihachi Rose

Filly, 2yo – Jockey: Isamu Tsutsui

Pedigree: Stamina and growth potential; distance extension is a plus.

Performance: Excellent time of 1:37.4 in a tough, high-paced win.

Prediction: A genuine contender. Can compete with the best if it dictates the pace.

3

Blue Cosmos

Filly, 2yo – Jockey: Ryu Abe

Pedigree: Power-type suited for tough races, but lacks sharp acceleration.

Performance: Recorded times indicate a deficit in absolute speed.

Prediction: Current ability likely insufficient for this level of competition.

4

Gold Letter

Filly, 2yo – Jockey: Sho Tomomori

Pedigree: Balanced pedigree with a good mix of speed and stamina.

Performance: Won in 1:37.7, comparable to Hachihachi Rose.

Prediction: Aggressive style. A strong finish is possible if it can run at its own rhythm.

5

Santé Orange

Colt, 2yo – Jockey: Satoshi Kato

Pedigree: Complementary pairing suited for tough races.

Performance: Very consistent placer with a win in 1:37.7.

Prediction: Three-month layoff is a major concern. Race fitness is key.

6

Nagoya Bashiri

Colt, 2yo – Jockey: Jun Mochizuki

Pedigree: Speed-oriented pedigree; distance extension is a negative.

Performance: Graded win was slow (1:39.3) and benefited from a slow pace.

Prediction: Potentially overhyped. Distance and pace are major concerns.

7

Little Lily

Filly, 2yo – Jockey: Rei Ogasawara

Pedigree: Above-average power and speed.

Performance: Consistent performer but struggles to win, falls short in the stretch.

Prediction: Interesting for exotic bets (trifecta), but a win is unlikely.

8

Fleur de Lune

Filly, 2yo – Jockey: Hiroshi Murakami

Pedigree: Large pedigree scale, but suitability for local tracks is unknown.

Performance: Finished 9th in previous race after transfer. Lacks supporting data.

Prediction: Based on data, a tough race is expected.

9

Yosari

Colt, 2yo – Jockey: Seiji Tsukamoto

Pedigree: High physical ability suggested by Sunday Silence inbreeding.

Performance: Undefeated in four races, dominating at Kasamatsu.

Prediction: Biggest unknown. Strongest contender to challenge the main pick.

10

Mimosa no Kisetsu

Colt, 2yo – Jockey: Takashi Imai

Pedigree: Speed-oriented for shorter distances.

Performance: Finished 2.5 seconds behind Astrabianco, showing a clear ability gap.

Prediction: A top-five candidate, with a third-place finish being a realistic target.

11

Astrabianco

Colt, 2yo – Jockey: Satoshi Hosokawa

Pedigree: Excellent suitability for Nagoya 1700m with power, stamina, and speed.

Performance: Shocking time of 1:35.8, demonstrating absolute superior ability.

Prediction: Undisputed main pick. A class above the rest if previous performance holds.

12

Queens Jolly

Filly, 2yo – Jockey: Kei Obatake

Pedigree: Excellent stamina and power.

Performance: Impressive time of 1:36.9, second-best in the field.

Prediction: Highly reliable second pick. Would be the favorite without Astrabianco.

3. Data Comparison and Race Forecast

Recent 1500m Race Time Comparison

#Horse NameTimeRank
11Astrabianco1:35.8S
12Queens Jolly1:36.9A
2Hachihachi Rose1:37.4A
9Yosari*N/AA~
5Santé Orange1:37.7B+
4Gold Letter1:37.7B

*Yosari’s time is from 1400m and not directly comparable.

Race Simulation

Front-runners

Hachihachi Rose (#2), Gold Letter (#4), Yosari (#9)

Midfield/Stalkers

Astrabianco (#11), Queens Jolly (#12), Santé Orange (#5)

Predicted Development

A high-paced race is likely as Hachihachi Rose and Yosari compete for the lead. This sets up an ideal scenario for stalkers like Astrabianco and Queens Jolly. Expect Astrabianco to make a decisive move on the final turn, overtaking the tiring leaders and pulling away in the straight.

4. Overall Evaluation and Recommended Conclusion

Main Pick: #11 Astrabianco

Exceptional time and perfect pedigree for 1700m. Highest probability of winning.

Second Pick: #12 Queens Jolly

Leads the rest in ability; expected to secure a top-two finish.

Third Pick: #9 Yosari

Undefeated dark horse with massive, unknown potential.

Special Mention

#2 Hachihachi Rose & #5 Santé Orange for exotic bets.

Final Betting Strategy

This analysis provides a logical foundation, but final decisions should incorporate on-the-day factors like paddock condition and odds. For our final picks, including a special mention dark horse, see our full betting slip.View Final Predictions & Bets

The data in this report is based on the provided materials.

ヤナシ社長(旧:生成系競馬予想)

競馬予想家 (経験20年)

データ関連企業の社長であり、学生時代にはアルゴリズムコンテストで世界3位に入賞したAI技術者。20年以上にわたり統計解析を競馬予想に応用してきた競馬予測家でもあります。生成系AIを駆使した客観的で革新的な競馬予想を提供し、「生成AI競走馬評価」などのコンテンツを通じて、競馬をより深く楽しめるようサポートしています。

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主な活動実績 AI競馬マスターズ2023: 3位入賞 俺プロ: 馬将認定 参考成績(中央): https://yoso.netkeiba.com/?pid=yosoka_profile&id=562 参考成績(地方): https://yoso.netkeiba.com/nar/?pid=yosoka_profile&id=562

ヤナシ社長(旧:生成系競馬予想)

データ関連企業の社長であり、学生時代にはアルゴリズムコンテストで世界3位に入賞したAI技術者。20年以上にわたり統計解析を競馬予想に応用してきた競馬予測家でもあります。生成系AIを駆使した客観的で革新的な競馬予想を提供し、「生成AI競走馬評価」などのコンテンツを通じて、競馬をより深く楽しめるようサポートしています。

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ヤナシ社長(旧:生成系競馬予想)

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