Summary of Key Points
Main Pick: Astrabianco
Exceptional time of 1:35.8 over 1500m and a pedigree favoring extended distances.
Second Pick: Queens Jolly
Possesses the second-best recorded time, leading other horses in absolute ability.
Dark Horse: Yosari
Unbeaten from Kasamatsu with unknown high potential to challenge the main pick.
Race Prediction
A high-paced race favoring Astrabianco to overtake tiring front-runners late.
1. Introduction: The Summit Battle
Positioning of the Gold Wing Award
The 64th Gold Wing Award (SP1) is a crucial stepping stone for 2-year-old horses in the Tokai region, leading to classic races and potentially national-level dirt grade races. This year’s field is stacked, featuring the overwhelmingly fast Astrabianco, graded stakes winner Hachihachi Rose, and the undefeated Yosari. The demanding 1700m distance will truly test and select the most capable young horses.
Nagoya Dirt 1700m: Required Aptitude
Victory on this four-corner course requires more than just speed. Key aptitudes include:
- ✔Cornering and Agility: Crucial for saving ground and securing a good position.
- ✔Stamina and Temperament: Essential for the 1700m distance and conserving energy.
- ✔Resilience: The power to handle long sprints and demanding race conditions.
2. Thorough Analysis of All Participating Horses
1
Gold Lane
Filly, 2yo – Jockey: Masaru Maruno
Pedigree: Speed-oriented sire, needs to prove stamina for this distance.
Performance: Time of 1:38.5 is not competitive with the top contenders.
Prediction: Inner draw helps, but a top-five finish is the likely ceiling.
2
Hachihachi Rose
Filly, 2yo – Jockey: Isamu Tsutsui
Pedigree: Stamina and growth potential; distance extension is a plus.
Performance: Excellent time of 1:37.4 in a tough, high-paced win.
Prediction: A genuine contender. Can compete with the best if it dictates the pace.
3
Blue Cosmos
Filly, 2yo – Jockey: Ryu Abe
Pedigree: Power-type suited for tough races, but lacks sharp acceleration.
Performance: Recorded times indicate a deficit in absolute speed.
Prediction: Current ability likely insufficient for this level of competition.
4
Gold Letter
Filly, 2yo – Jockey: Sho Tomomori
Pedigree: Balanced pedigree with a good mix of speed and stamina.
Performance: Won in 1:37.7, comparable to Hachihachi Rose.
Prediction: Aggressive style. A strong finish is possible if it can run at its own rhythm.
5
Santé Orange
Colt, 2yo – Jockey: Satoshi Kato
Pedigree: Complementary pairing suited for tough races.
Performance: Very consistent placer with a win in 1:37.7.
Prediction: Three-month layoff is a major concern. Race fitness is key.
6
Nagoya Bashiri
Colt, 2yo – Jockey: Jun Mochizuki
Pedigree: Speed-oriented pedigree; distance extension is a negative.
Performance: Graded win was slow (1:39.3) and benefited from a slow pace.
Prediction: Potentially overhyped. Distance and pace are major concerns.
7
Little Lily
Filly, 2yo – Jockey: Rei Ogasawara
Pedigree: Above-average power and speed.
Performance: Consistent performer but struggles to win, falls short in the stretch.
Prediction: Interesting for exotic bets (trifecta), but a win is unlikely.
8
Fleur de Lune
Filly, 2yo – Jockey: Hiroshi Murakami
Pedigree: Large pedigree scale, but suitability for local tracks is unknown.
Performance: Finished 9th in previous race after transfer. Lacks supporting data.
Prediction: Based on data, a tough race is expected.
9
Yosari
Colt, 2yo – Jockey: Seiji Tsukamoto
Pedigree: High physical ability suggested by Sunday Silence inbreeding.
Performance: Undefeated in four races, dominating at Kasamatsu.
Prediction: Biggest unknown. Strongest contender to challenge the main pick.
10
Mimosa no Kisetsu
Colt, 2yo – Jockey: Takashi Imai
Pedigree: Speed-oriented for shorter distances.
Performance: Finished 2.5 seconds behind Astrabianco, showing a clear ability gap.
Prediction: A top-five candidate, with a third-place finish being a realistic target.
11
Astrabianco
Colt, 2yo – Jockey: Satoshi Hosokawa
Pedigree: Excellent suitability for Nagoya 1700m with power, stamina, and speed.
Performance: Shocking time of 1:35.8, demonstrating absolute superior ability.
Prediction: Undisputed main pick. A class above the rest if previous performance holds.
12
Queens Jolly
Filly, 2yo – Jockey: Kei Obatake
Pedigree: Excellent stamina and power.
Performance: Impressive time of 1:36.9, second-best in the field.
Prediction: Highly reliable second pick. Would be the favorite without Astrabianco.
3. Data Comparison and Race Forecast
Recent 1500m Race Time Comparison
| # | Horse Name | Time | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Astrabianco | 1:35.8 | S |
| 12 | Queens Jolly | 1:36.9 | A |
| 2 | Hachihachi Rose | 1:37.4 | A |
| 9 | Yosari* | N/A | A~ |
| 5 | Santé Orange | 1:37.7 | B+ |
| 4 | Gold Letter | 1:37.7 | B |
*Yosari’s time is from 1400m and not directly comparable.
Race Simulation
Front-runners
Hachihachi Rose (#2), Gold Letter (#4), Yosari (#9)
Midfield/Stalkers
Astrabianco (#11), Queens Jolly (#12), Santé Orange (#5)
Predicted Development
A high-paced race is likely as Hachihachi Rose and Yosari compete for the lead. This sets up an ideal scenario for stalkers like Astrabianco and Queens Jolly. Expect Astrabianco to make a decisive move on the final turn, overtaking the tiring leaders and pulling away in the straight.
4. Overall Evaluation and Recommended Conclusion
◎
Main Pick: #11 Astrabianco
Exceptional time and perfect pedigree for 1700m. Highest probability of winning.
○
Second Pick: #12 Queens Jolly
Leads the rest in ability; expected to secure a top-two finish.
▲
Third Pick: #9 Yosari
Undefeated dark horse with massive, unknown potential.
△
Special Mention
#2 Hachihachi Rose & #5 Santé Orange for exotic bets.
Final Betting Strategy
This analysis provides a logical foundation, but final decisions should incorporate on-the-day factors like paddock condition and odds. For our final picks, including a special mention dark horse, see our full betting slip.View Final Predictions & Bets
The data in this report is based on the provided materials.
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