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Gemstone Stakes 2025:An in-depth analysis and prediction for the path to the Dirt Sprint King, with Handen Drake as the core pick.

Key Insights

  • ✦The Gemstone Stakes is a high-paced 1200m attrition race, favoring stamina over pure speed.
  • Top Pick: Handen Drake leverages superior stamina from mile races, making it ideal for the expected pace.
  • Strong Contender: Wanahavfan boasts top-tier speed, a major threat if the pace is manageable.
  • Dark Horses: Dokidoki & Miraiheno Hero possess potent closing speed, poised to benefit from tiring front-runners.
  • ✦Horses with “improving condition” (↗) ratings, like Baby Quest, are prime candidates for strong performances.

Race & Course Strategy

Gemstone Stakes Significance

A crucial Grade 3 test for 2-year-olds over 1200m at Ohi Racecourse. With a 13 million yen prize, it attracts top Kanto sprinters. The full 16-horse field guarantees an intense battle for position, demanding speed, adaptability, and mental fortitude from these young thoroughbreds.

Ohi Dirt 1200m Dynamics

A right-handed outer track where a high pace is anticipated (est. 1:13.1). The short run to the first turn disadvantages wide draws, but the crowded field will likely exhaust front-runners. This favors horses with sustained speed and a strong finishing kick, making stamina from longer races a key advantage.

Contender Comparison

Showdown: Wanahavfan vs. Handen Drake

The race’s titans are Wanahavfan (12) and Handen Drake (15). Wanahavfan impressed with a 1:12.8 debut win, showcasing elite speed. Handen Drake matched that time and boasts a 2nd place finish in the graded Kamakura Kinen (mile). This proven stamina in a high-stakes mile race gives Handen Drake a critical edge in a fast-paced 1200m sprint.

D1200m Specialists

Dokidoki (13) is a model of consistency at this distance, with a devastating final 3F kick (36.9s). Nagisa Noruna (16) rides a two-race winning streak and could dominate if it overcomes its wide draw.

Rising Stars

Miraiheno Hero (11) is on a two-race win streak, showing marked improvement in form and front-running ability. Black X (3) is undefeated and brimming with untapped potential, though its adaptability to the Ohi course is a question.

Bloodline Analysis

Sires like Morning and Mozu Ascot infuse American dirt speed. Morning’s progeny, known for sustained speed on tough South Kanto tracks, are a significant focus, with four contenders from this line.

Performance Data: Leading Horses

HorseFastest TimeFinal 3F
12Wanahavfan1:12.8(37.3)
15Handen Drake1:12.8(37.3)
13Dokidoki1:13.0(36.9)
16Nagisa Noruna1:13.6(38.6)
10Gold Kaguya Hime1:14.1(37.7)
4Baby Quest1:14.2(37.4)

Training Condition Analysis

Final Adjustments & Stable Intel

Improving Horses (↗): Five horses show improving condition, but Handen Drake (15) appears in perfect form, while Baby Quest (4) received the highest rating for movement and is a key horse to watch.

Stable Confidence: Trainer comments reveal high confidence in Baby Quest (4) and Dokidoki (13), while others express caution about the strong competition.

HorseWorkout Time (3F)Condition/Suitability
4Baby Quest36.8 (Easy)Entering in peak condition, a top dark horse.
11Miraiheno Hero37.2 (Strong)Significant stamina improvement.
12Wanahavfan37.8 (Strong)Condition has improved. Winning streak expected.
15Handen DrakeUphill 11.2 (Easy)Top favorite due to graded race experience.
16Nagisa Noruna39.6 (Easy)Easy adjustment, energy reserved.

Final Verdict & Top Picks

TOP PICK15

Handen Drake

The clear favorite. Its 2nd place in a mile graded race proves its class and stamina. Returning to its preferred 1200m distance, where it’s undefeated, combined with peak workout condition, makes it the horse to beat. Its maturity and proven ability give it a decisive edge.

Second Favorite: Wanahavfan (12)

Exceptional speed. Expect improvement in its second start. A major threat for the win.

Third Favorite: Dokidoki (13)

Potent closing speed will be a weapon in a high-paced race. Watch for a late surge.

Top Underneath: Miraiheno Hero (11)

Rapidly improving with enhanced stamina. Carries strong winning momentum.

Dark Horse: Baby Quest (4)

Outstanding workout movements post-layoff signal it’s ready for an upset.

Dark Horse: Presto Emperor (14)

A wide draw could help it avoid trouble and unleash its finishing kick effectively.

Long Shot: Fuku Ambition (9)

A Morning progeny that could surprise if it finds a clear run and deploys its late speed.View Detailed Betting Strategy 

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ヤナシ社長(旧:生成系競馬予想)

データ関連企業の社長であり、学生時代にはアルゴリズムコンテストで世界3位に入賞したAI技術者。20年以上にわたり統計解析を競馬予想に応用してきた競馬予測家でもあります。生成系AIを駆使した客観的で革新的な競馬予想を提供し、「生成AI競走馬評価」などのコンテンツを通じて、競馬をより深く楽しめるようサポートしています。

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ヤナシ社長(旧:生成系競馬予想)