2025 Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes
An in-depth evaluation of key contenders, workout performances, and bloodline trends for the premier two-year-old mile championship.
Key Takeaways
Pivotal G1 Race
A crucial predictor for the following year’s Classic races, crowning the two-year-old mile champion.
Hanshin 1600m Challenge
A true test of ability, demanding speed, power, and stamina to conquer its long straight and steep uphill finish.
Bricks and Mortar Lineage
Progeny of this sire show exceptional aptitude for this course, making them a key factor in predictions.
Peak Condition Contenders
Workout evaluations give an “S-rank” to Ecolo Alba, with Admire Quads and Diamond Knot also showing top form.
Leading Favorites
Realize Sirius, Admire Quads, Ecolo Alba, and Diamond Knot emerge as the front-runners from the analysis.
Course & Bloodline Deep Dive
Hanshin Turf 1600m Dynamics
The Hanshin turf 1600m outer course is one of Japan’s premier “ability-testing courses.” Its long 473.6m straight and a steep 1.8m uphill finish demand a potent combination of raw speed, sustained stamina, tactical manageability, and the power to accelerate up the final incline. Horses with proven form over 1800m or longer often hold a significant advantage.
Sire Performance Trends (2020-2025)
| Sire Name | Starts-Wins-Places | Win % | Place % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bricks and Mortar | 5-3-2-22 | 15.6% | 31.3% |
| Kingman | 3-1-0-5 | 33.3% | 44.4% |
| Admire Mars | 2-2-0-10 | 14.3% | 28.6% |
| Kizuna | 15-16-10-126 | 9.0% | 24.6% |
| Lord Kanaloa | 19-26-22-165 | 8.2% | 28.9% |
In-Depth Contender Analysis
S-RANK WORKOUT
Ecolo Alba
父: Mozu Ascot / 母: Star Actress
The most dangerous contender. His phenomenal late charge and sub-33-second final furlong in his previous race showcase absolute explosive acceleration. While slow starts are a risk, the long Hanshin straight is the perfect stage to unleash his destructive power.
Workout Eval: “Body is developing, movement stands out.” Overwhelmed his stablemate, confirming peak condition.
Admire Quads
父: Real Steel / 母: Dateline
A top favorite after a record-breaking win in the Daily Hai Nisai Stakes. Proved his mental fortitude and ability to handle fast conditions. His excellent stamina, manageability, and versatile racing style make him a central figure in this race.
Workout Eval: “Maintaining good condition.” A blistering 11.2s final furlong the week prior and a light final workout indicate perfect form.
Diamond Knot
父: Bricks and Mortar / 母: Endless Knot
The data-driven bettor’s choice. A notable progeny of Bricks and Mortar with top-tier course suitability. Combines power and acceleration, and if he can lead and hold on, he has the potential to completely dominate. A formidable dark horse.
Workout Eval: “Full of speed.” An exceptionally impressive uphill track time (52.3s) suggests further power development.
Realize Sirius
父: Poetic Flare / 母: Red Mirabelle
Possesses top-tier ability. His long stride is advantageous on Hanshin’s straight. Despite a slow start in his last race, he recovered to win, demonstrating strong race sense. Gate performance is a concern, but his potential is undeniable.
Workout Eval: “Lively movement.” In peak condition, but a +14kg weight increase is a key factor to watch.
Ones to Watch
Tagano Aralia
Sharp final burst and “powerful extending stride” in workouts. A dark horse who could contend if he handles the distance.
Cavalerizzo
Second in the Daily Hai Nisai Stakes. His “propulsive run” in training suggests he’s improved since his last race.
Speluce
Despite pedigree ambiguity, workout shows “springy movement” confirming high potential.
Kakuuchi
Good movement on the uphill track. Should not be underestimated for a tenacious run.
Good Peace
Kingman progeny. His bloodline is very well-suited to the course, making him an attractive outsider.
Corteo Soleil
Jockey Yutaka Take noted “brisk movement” in his workout, indicating a competitive spirit.
Workout Judgement: Top 3
1
Ecolo Alba
S-Rank. Recorded a final 11.7s with ease. Peak physical and mental condition.
2
Admire Quads
Outstanding prior workout. Maintaining perfect form post-record win.
3
Diamond Knot
Exceptional uphill time. Speed-filled stride suggests more power.
Honorable Mention: Realize Sirius
Powerful movement, but a significant weight increase raises questions. Watch in the paddock.
Final Verdict
The 2025 Asahi Hai FS is a high-level, closely contested battle. After thorough analysis, Admire Quads stands out as the central contender due to his impeccable race performance, training progression, and course suitability.
His main rivals are the explosive Ecolo Alba, the high-potential Realize Sirius, and the data-backed dark horse Diamond Knot, who could steal the show if he conquers the mile distance.VIEW FINAL PREDICTIONS
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