An in-depth analysis of the December Stakes (Nakayama, 1800m Turf) on December 21, 2025. We break down this race, featuring established contenders and rising stars, by examining course characteristics, recent workouts, stable comments, and bloodline trends.
Key Race Factors
Nakayama Course
Favors horses with tactical skill, power, and stamina-rich pedigrees.
Peak Condition
Contrapposto is in peak physical and mental condition, with a suitable pedigree.
Workout Form
Grandia & Schilthorn have shown excellent form and speed in recent workouts.
Decisive Factors
Suitability for winter turf and recent conditioning will be crucial.
Top Contenders Analysis
AI Win Prob.
22.6%
Contrapposto
5-y-o Colt | Miho | Kikuzawa stable
Sire: Rulership / Damsire: Fuji Kiseki
Topping our AI predictions, Contrapposto is in prime form. Recent stable comments note he has “filled out his frame” and “can handle this course well due to his adaptability.” In his Dec 17 workout, he showed great spirit. His sire, Rulership, has an excellent affinity for the Nakayama course, and his ability to sustain a long kick is a perfect match.
AI Win Prob.
14.1%
Grandia
6-y-o Gelding | Ritto | Nakauchida stable
Sire: Harbinger / Damsire: Sunday Silence
A strong contender, known to excel on tough, seasonal turf. Despite a 6-month layoff, he showed a sharp finish in his Dec 17 workout. His sire, Harbinger, is known for producing runners who perform well on European-style turf and in winter conditions, making him a serious threat.
AI Win Prob.
11.2%
Schilthorn
5-y-o Colt | Miho | Shinkai stable
Sire: Screen Hero / Damsire: Langfuhr
Showing a clear return to form. He recorded the fastest time in his Dec 17 workout, highlighting his excellent movement. His sire, Screen Hero (a Roberto line), is known for producing many Nakayama specialists, making his course suitability extremely high. A dark horse to watch.
Also in Contention
Dragon Boost
3-y-o Colt | Ritto | Fujino stable
Sire: Screen Hero / Damsire: Empire Maker
A challenger from the 3-year-old generation. His pedigree suggests power and stamina will be his greatest assets.
Course Profile: Nakayama 1800m
A challenging one-turn layout with four corners.
The course demands tactical versatility and power to handle the final uphill stretch. Winter turf is often tough, favoring stamina.
Final Verdict & Betting Angle
This year’s December Stakes hinges on two factors: affinity for winter Nakayama turf and peak recent conditioning. Power-based pedigrees like Contrapposto (Rulership) and Schilthorn (Screen Hero) are historically favored here.
The crucial decision for bettors is whether to back the stable favorite, Contrapposto, or take a chance on the explosive potential of well-prepped challengers like Grandia and Schilthorn. It promises to be a thrilling contest.
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