TANZANITE STAKES 2025
WORKOUT ANALYSIS
A deep dive into the form, pedigree, and key contenders for the prestigious open-class handicap at Hanshin Racecourse. We analyze crucial workout data for favorites like Satono Carnaval and Asakara King to uncover the likely winner.
Key Takeaways
Satono Carnaval
Posted an excellent time in his final workout, indicating he’s in peak condition for the race.
Asakara King
Shows significant improvement in hill training; a strong contender for a comeback on turf.
Carlo Veloce
Maintains top form. His key weapon is his impressive and sustained speed.
Dark Horses
Watch for Souten (blazing time) and Mirto Craimo (fastest hill climb).
Data Insight
Asakara King is highly rated by AI models in both overall ability and recent form metrics, making him a prime candidate.
Contents
- Tanzanite Stakes 2025: Race Overview
- Workout & Pedigree Analysis: Top Contenders
- Workout Standouts: Dark Horse Picks
- Data Deep Dive (AI Rating & Speed Index)
- Final Conclusion
Race Overview
- Date: Saturday, December 20, 2025
- Racecourse: Hanshin, Race 11
- Conditions: 1200m Turf (Right-handed, A-Course)
- Type: Handicap, 3-year-olds and up, Open Class
- Forecast: Clear / Good to Firm
The Hanshin 1200m course has a short run to the first corner, often leading to a fierce battle for the lead. Horses drawn inside with early speed tend to have an advantage, especially on a firm track. However, a fast pace can set the race up for closers to make a late surge.
Top Contenders: Workout & Pedigree
SATONO CARNAVAL
Workout Grade: A
Odds4.7
Weight56.0kg
PedigreeKitasan Black x Numerous
Workout Analysis: Executed his final workout on Dec 17th on the Miho woodchip course, clocking an impressive 51.9-36.6-11.2 while under wraps. Despite a layoff, his preparation has been thorough, including a strong gallop last week. The stable commented, “His spirit is up. We’re sending him out with confidence.” He appears to be in perfect condition.
Aptitude: While his sire, Kitasan Black, was a stayer, his progeny often possess excellent speed. The American bloodline from damsire Numerous provides a foundation for success in sprint contests.
ASAKARA KING
Workout Grade: B+
Odds6.1
Weight57.5kg
PedigreeKizuna x King Halo
Workout Analysis: Clocked 52.6-38.5-25.1-12.4 on the Miho hill course on Dec 17th. Reports note his “mind and movement are now in sync, and he’s moving with ease.” This marks a significant improvement. His preparation for a return to turf after a dirt race has been exceptionally smooth.
Aptitude: The Kizuna x King Halo cross is known for producing horses with a potent, sustained finishing kick. The demanding pace of the Hanshin 1200m could play perfectly to his strengths.
CARLO VELOCE
Workout Grade: B
Odds5.9
Weight57.0kg
PedigreeSilver State x Rock of Gibraltar
Workout Analysis: Posted 52.4-37.1-24.4-12.5 on the Ritto hill course under a strong ride. Despite the short turnaround, he shows no signs of fatigue, with reports praising his “excellent late burst of speed.” He appeared slightly keen, but his action was sharp and agile, indicating he has maintained his high-level form.
Aptitude: Typical of a Silver State offspring, he excels at maintaining high speed. His damsire, Rock of Gibraltar (from the Danzig line), further enhances his suitability for the 1200m sprint.
Workout Standouts: Dark Horse Picks
SOUTEN
Forecast Odds: 65.4 (16th fav)
Special Mention: Clocked a blistering 67.5-51.7-38.0-11.1 on the Ritto Polytrack. Described as “showing remarkable finishing speed” after an intense workout. His training signals a serious attempt at a major form reversal.
MIRTO CRAIMO
Forecast Odds: 58.0 (14th fav)
Grade A Workout: Recorded the day’s fastest time on the Ritto hill course with 51.4-37.4-24.5-12.5. Evaluated as “powerful, tenacious, and well-finished.” Despite recent poor results, a performance like this makes him a potential upset.
Data Deep Dive
Here’s a breakdown of the top-rated horses according to key performance data:
- ◆Top Ability Index: Asakara King, Duga, Carlo Veloce
- ◆Top Form Improvement (Condition): Asakara King, Ascoltiamo, Wing Greatest
- ◆Top Jockeys (Course Record): Yuichi Kitamura, Kohei Matsuyama, Cristian Demuro
From a data perspective, Asakara King stands out, ranking at the top for both “Ability” and “Form Improvement,” making him a very strong candidate for the win.
Conclusion
The 2025 Tanzanite Stakes is shaping up to be a highly competitive finale to the year. The thorough preparation of Satono Carnaval and the resurgent form of Asakara King are impossible to ignore. For those seeking value, the exceptional workout performances of dark horses Souten and Mirto Craimo warrant serious consideration.
Ready for the Final Picks?
For our definitive selections and detailed betting strategy, visit our final predictions page.CHECK FINAL PREDICTIONS
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