Christmas Rose Stakes 2025 Workout Analysis

A deep dive into the form of top contenders for the Christmas Rose Stakes (Turf 1200m) at Chukyo Racecourse. We break down the final workouts, pedigrees, and stable intelligence to uncover the top prospects.

Key Takeaways

• Vogel earns a top “Grade A” evaluation, clocking an impressive 11.1s final furlong on the polytrack.
• Tamamo Ikaros shows significant improvement with a sharp 11.1s finish in paired work, securing a strong “Grade B”.
• Pedigrees of Tamamo Ikaros, Vogel, and Happy Angel strongly suggest an aptitude for sprinting distances.
• While AI predictions favor Tamamo Ikaros, Vogel’s outstanding workout performance makes him a prime challenger.

Contents

1. Workout Evaluation Summary
2. Bloodline Analysis: Sprinter Aptitude
3. Insights from Stable Comments
4. Final Prediction & Conclusion

Workout Evaluation Summary

Analyzing the final workouts (primarily from Dec 17th) to grade each contender’s race-day condition.

Vogel

GRADE A

• Workout: Dec 17 (Wed) on Polytrack (Good). Ridden by Assistant.
• Time: 5F 67.1 – 51.4 – 37.7 – 11.1 (at a canter)

Analysis: Showcased a brilliant turn of foot with an 11.1s final furlong on the polytrack. Worked alongside a higher-class horse, Soten, and finished on even terms with plenty in reserve. Described as “movement outstanding.” The switch to 1200m seems to have unlocked his potential. Appears to be in peak condition.

Grade B: Promising Contenders

Tamamo Ikaros

• Workout: Dec 17 (Wed) on Wood Chip (Good). Ridden by Takasugi.
• Time: 86.2 – 67.1 – 51.5 – 36.2 – 11.1 (urged)

Analysis: Shows clear improvement since the Fukushima Nisai Stakes. Finished 0.1s ahead in paired work, displaying a sharp 11.1s final split. The stable comments confirm he is “on the rise.” A strong contender if he can handle the 57kg impost.

Coral Reef

• Workout: Dec 17 (Wed) at Kurito Hill Climb (Good). Ridden by Sameshima.
• Time: 52.6 – 38.1 – 25.1 – 12.8 (at a canter)

Analysis: Light and fluid movement on the hill climb. Finished 0.7s ahead in paired work, indicating a smooth preparation and excellent physical condition.

Happy Angel

• Workout: Dec 17 (Wed) at Miho Hill Climb (Good). Ridden by Assistant.
• Time: 54.4 – 39.2 – 25.5 – 12.6 (at a canter)

Analysis: Maintained good form with steady splits on the hill climb. The cutback to 1200m is viewed as a positive. Expected to perform better than his last outing.

Bloodline Analysis: Sprinter Aptitude

Tamamo Ikaros

Sire:Declaration of War (Danzig line)Damsire:Dance in the Dark (Sunday Silence line)

Analysis: While his sire is versatile, his progeny in Japan often excel in speed from sprints to miles. The stamina influence from damsire Dance in the Dark suggests he has the constitution to maintain his speed through Chukyo’s tough final straight.

Vogel

Sire:Al Ain (Deep Impact line)Damsire:Lord Kanaloa (Kingmambo line)

Analysis: Sire Al Ain was a Satsuki Sho (2000m) winner, but speed is significantly amplified by damsire Lord Kanaloa, a legendary sprinter. His recent form confirms a high aptitude for 1200m, a pedigree perfectly suited for modern speed-focused racing.

Happy Angel

Sire:Jo Cappuccino (Sunday Silence line)Damsire:Swept Overboard (Forty Niner line)

Analysis: A pure speed pedigree. Both sire and damsire have produced numerous sprint stakes winners. The damsire’s influence, in particular, provides a sharp finishing kick, making the cutback to 1200m very appealing from a bloodline perspective.

Insights from Stable Comments

“The tight 1200m at the small track was a bit rushed, but he won on pure ability. The weight increase (to 57kg) shouldn’t be an issue.”— Tamamo Ikaros (Fujioka Stable)

“He’s really shown his best side since we started running him at 1200m. His condition is excellent, and he’s ready for open class.”— Vogel (Saito Stable)

“He’s quick out of the gate, so 1200m is his best distance. He’s fully refreshed and ready to go.”— Seagullos (Ogata Stable)

Final Prediction & Conclusion

According to AI prediction data, Tamamo Ikaros holds the top evaluation with a leading AI Index of 273, excelling in both predicted win rate and expected return value. He is followed by the impressive workout performer Vogel, who has an AI Index of 213.

While the data points to Tamamo Ikaros, Vogel’s physical condition and explosive final workout make him an undeniable threat. The race outcome could hinge on whether Vogel’s peak form can overcome the statistical edge held by Tamamo Ikaros.

Ready to Place Your Bets?

For final betting slips and expert consensus, check the official sources.Check Final Predictions on Netkeiba

The information in this article is based on research as of December 19, 2025. Please wager responsibly.