Asahi Hai FS 2025 Preview
An In-Depth Analysis of Top Contenders from Pre-Race Workouts
A complete guide to the 77th Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes (G1) on December 21, 2025. We break down the top contenders, from the Daily Hai Nisai S record-holder Admire Quads and the explosive closer Ecolo Alba to the polished Diamond Knot. This analysis, centered on pre-race workouts and factoring in course traits and pedigree, gets to the heart of the 2-year-old mile championship.
Key Takeaways
- ◆The 2025 Asahi Hai FS features a highly competitive field of Grade-race winners.
- ◆Admire Quadsshows no signs of fatigue from his record-breaking win, displaying outstanding form in his latest workout.
- ◆Ecolo Albapossesses an exceptional closing kick. His training form is top-tier, but long-distance travel is a key factor.
- ◆Diamond Knotis a polished, professional colt with tactical versatility, making him a highly reliable contender.
- ◆The Hanshin 1600m course, with its final steep incline, demands both “stamina” and “sustained acceleration.”
Table of Contents
- Race Analysis & Course Characteristics
- Top Contender Breakdown
- Other Horses to Watch
- Final Verdict & Conclusion
Race Analysis & Course Characteristics
The 77th Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes (G1), held on December 21, 2025, at Hanshin Racecourse over 1600m turf (outer loop), is a pivotal race to crown the 2-year-old mile champion. This year’s field is a high-level contest, bringing together Grade-race winners and promising prospects from various circuits.
Hanshin 1600m (Outer Loop) Course Profile
While the Hanshin 1600m outer course is relatively fair regarding post positions, its defining feature is the steep incline before the finish line. This demands not just speed but also “stamina” to maintain momentum and “sustained acceleration” to power through. The three key factors for this race are:
- Finishing Kick in Workouts: A horse’s ability to accelerate in the final furlong of a workout is a key indicator of the stamina needed to conquer the hill.
- Mile Suitability & Temperament: Mental maturity is crucial. The ability to relax mid-race and conserve energy for an explosive finish is paramount.
- Pedigree: Horses with Sunday Silence lineage for acceleration, combined with power from American Northern Dancer lines, tend to perform well here.
Workout Trends of Top Contenders
The leading contenders often follow a pattern of a long workout on the Ritto Woodchip course combined with a speed-focused gallop on the uphill track. A common and successful training pattern is a hard workout one week out, followed by a lighter tune-up in race week (“hard one week before, easy on the day”). This approach is often a key differentiator.
Top Contender Breakdown
Admire Quads: The Record-Holder in Peak Form
After a stunning record-breaking performance in the Daily Hai Nisai S, there were concerns about a potential bounce. However, his latest workout dispels all doubts, showing a horse in peak condition.
Workout Analysis:
| Admire Quads – Pre-Race Workout Data | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Course | Rider | Time (6F-1F) | Position | Effort | Comment |
| Dec 11 | Ritto CW | L. Sakai | 82.9-67.6-52.4-36.3-11.2 | Inside | Driven | Powerful stride |
While the overall time is excellent, the final furlong of 11.2s is particularly sharp. He has consistently shown great vitality in training, and his springy action suggests he’s fully recovered from his last race. This points to a high level of current form.
Ecolo Alba: Eastern Star with a Devastating Finish
His performance in the Tokyo mile race was that of a future star. Long-distance travel from Miho is a challenge, but his training moves are powerful enough to overcome it.
Workout Analysis:
| Ecolo Alba – Pre-Race Workout Data | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Course | Rider | Time (5F-1F) | Effort | Comment |
| Dec 10 | Miho W | Assistant | 65.3-50.6-36.3-11.4 | Pushed hard | Responded well |
An exceptionally fast time, easily overpowering an open-class older horse. His power is beyond that of a typical 2-year-old. The long, straight Hanshin course is the perfect stage to unleash his phenomenal closing speed.
Diamond Knot: The Polished Professional
Winner of the Keio Hai Nisai S, Diamond Knot aims for an undefeated record. The camp’s confidence is palpable in his preparation.
Workout Analysis:
| Diamond Knot – Pre-Race Workout Data | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Course | Rider | Time (6F-1F) | Position | Effort | Comment |
| Dec 10 | Ritto CW | Trainer | 81.0-65.8-51.9-37.0-11.5 | Inside | Driven | Solid stride |
He easily outpaced his work partner, showing excellent, stable form and a strong core. There are no concerns about his condition. With top-tier race sense and tactical versatility, he is an ideal horse to build wagers around.
Cavaliereizzo
Though second in the Daily Hai Nisai S, this well-bred colt showed immense potential. He’s on a clear upward trajectory and shouldn’t be underestimated for an upset.
His training has been steady, and while a dramatic improvement isn’t obvious, he maintains a high level of fitness. If he overcomes his immaturity, he has the talent to be in the mix.
Tagano Aralia
Coming off a win in the Shumeigiku Sho, this colt is in fine form. His work on the uphill track shows sprinter-like speed.
Finishing the final furlong in 12.0s indicates improved stamina, suggesting he can handle the step up in distance. His courage in a crowd is a major asset in a big G1 field.
Other Horses to Watch
Realise Sirius: Winner of the Niigata Nisai S, but he was outpaced in his latest workout. Could be feeling the effects of a layoff; needs to show improvement.
Kakuuchi: Showed excellent form, “pulling away effortlessly” in his Ritto CW workout. His pedigree (Admire Mars x French Deputy) is perfect for the Hanshin mile. A live longshot.
Sun Bright: Only a maiden winner, but his workout was solid. Showed good race sense in his debut and shouldn’t be dismissed.
Good Peace: A wide trip was his undoing in the Daily Hai Nisai S (6th). His workout was powerful; a rebound is possible if he settles.
Red Ligare: Another maiden winner making the jump. Training has been smooth, and as a Maurice colt, he is expected to improve with each start.
Final Verdict & Conclusion
Condition Judgment
Based on pre-race workouts, Admire Quads and Ecolo Alba earn an ‘S’ grade for their exceptional condition. Diamond Knot and Tagano Aralia also receive a high ‘A’ grade. Conversely, Realise Sirius’s training was somewhat disappointing.
Pedigree & Suitability Judgment
For the Hanshin outer mile course, the two best-suited pedigrees belong to Admire Quads (Real Steel x Storm Cat) and Ecolo Alba (Mozu Ascot x Hennessy).
Final Conclusion
The horse to beat in the 77th Asahi Hai FS is Admire Quads. His stellar performance in the Daily Hai Nisai S is backed up by flawless training, making him the contender with the fewest weaknesses.
The main rival is Ecolo Alba, with his explosive closing speed. The top dark horse is Diamond Knot, praised for his polish and race sense.
For a value play, keep an eye on Kakuuchi, who is showing marked improvement in training and has a suitable pedigree for this course. He offers excellent betting value.
Final decisions should be made after considering final workouts and post position draw.
Source: 20251221_5th_Hanshin_6th_day_11R_77th_Asahi_Hai_FS.txt (Race Card, Training Data, Stable Comments, Pre-race Interviews, Pedigree Chart, Performance Chart)
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