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Capella Stakes (G3)

2025 Contender Analysis

An in-depth look at the top contenders, their workouts, and pedigree ahead of the Nakayama dirt 1200m showdown.

Ecolo Ailes’ Form

Exceptional 50.4s workout signals peak readiness.

TO Elvis’ Speed

Sharp 11.1s final furlong showcases high ability.

Course Profile

Uphill finish favors powerful North American bloodlines.

Workout Focus

One-week prior workouts are a key indicator for sprints.

Race Overview & Significance

The 18th Capella Stakes (G3) on December 14, 2025, closes the central horse racing dirt season at Nakayama Racecourse. This crucial 1200m dirt sprint is a stepping stone for horses aiming for the February Stakes and prestigious international G1 races like the Riyadh Dirt Sprint and Dubai Golden Shaheen. This year’s event promises a thrilling clash between emerging 3-year-old talents and seasoned veterans, with this analysis focusing on pre-race workouts and pedigree to identify the true contenders.

Key Predictive Factors

Nakayama 1200m Course & Pedigree

  • Turf Start & Early Pace: Rapid acceleration from a turf start, especially from wide draws, makes absolute speed a critical factor.
  • Uphill Finish: The steep incline before the finish line demands both speed and raw power to maintain momentum.
  • Pedigree Advantage: North American dirt bloodlines (Mr. Prospector, Storm Cat) are heavily favored. Look for offspring of Henny Hughes, Drefong, Volatile, and Shancelot.

Workout Evaluation Criteria

  • Time & Speed: Fast times are key. Target 50-51s for 4F on the uphill track or low 80s for 6F on the CW course.
  • Lap Splits: Maintaining or increasing speed in the final furlong is a strong positive indicator.
  • Stablemate Comparison: Outperforming higher-rated or in-form stablemates in drills is a significant sign of readiness.

Analysis of Top Contenders

Ecolo Ailes

Outlook

A top contender. If the start is clean, its superior ability and speed could overwhelm the field.

Workout:50.4s

Remarkable time on the Ritto uphill track, matching the day’s best. Sustained good form, decisively catching its stablemate.

Pedigree

By Shancelot (Storm Cat line). Bred for exceptional early speed, a perfect fit for Nakayama’s turf start.

TO Elvis

Outlook

Strong contender for the win. Workout performance backs up his dominant last race.

Workout:11.1s (Last 1F)

Exceptionally fast final furlong on the CW course shows remarkable acceleration and mental maturity.

Pedigree

Volatile x Curlin. A perfect blend of sire’s speed and dam sire’s power for Nakayama’s demanding finish.

Sunrise Amour

Outlook

Consistent performer with strong past results. A high probability of a strong showing based on peak form.

Workout:51.4s

Clocking 51.4s while relaxed shows this 6-year-old mare is in peak form with no signs of decline.

Pedigree

Maurice x Taiki Shuttle. A powerful cross, her sprinting ability has matured with age.

Chikappa

Outlook

Strong 4th in JBC Sprint shows class. Lighter dirt surface should be beneficial.

Workout:51.7s

Good overall time, but a slowing pace in the final furlong is a slight concern. Still noteworthy for a horse not known for flashy works.

Pedigree

Real Steel x Into Mischief mare. A potent mix of turf-like speed and raw dirt power.

Gabby’s Sister

Outlook

The most noteworthy Eastern-based contender. A threat for top positions if workout form translates to the race.

Workout:66.0s

Exceptional performance on Miho CW course, easily tracking and pulling away from a higher-rated horse. Ample speed.

Pedigree

Apollo Kingdom x Special Week. Leverages sire’s dirt suitability with dam’s tenacity.

Pod Vader

Outlook

A dark horse with high potential. Showed high aptitude in its first dirt race and workout suggests more to come.

Workout:12.1s (Last 1F)

Sharp final furlong on Miho uphill track highlights excellent responsiveness. Jockey notes suggest agility for Nakayama.

Pedigree

By Lion d’Anvers. Possesses explosive power when conditions are right.

Final Forecast & Top Picks

2

Taikou (対抗)

TO Elvis

The 11.1s final furlong is formidable. His Volatile x Curlin pedigree is a perfect match for Nakayama’s demands. Ready to prove his last dominant win was no fluke.

1

Honmei (本命)

Ecolo Ailes

The 50.4s workout stands out. A Shancelot offspring with blazing speed and fighting spirit, he has a high chance of overwhelming the field with a clean break.

3

Tan’ana (単穴)

Sunrise Amour

Clocking 51.4s with ease at 6 years old is remarkable. As a consistent performer with strong results, she is unlikely to falter significantly.

Chikappa

Past achievements are top-class despite a weaker finish in workout.

Gabby’s Sister

Excellent Miho CW workout. Represents the best of the eastern contingent.

Pod Vader

High potential due to latent ability and a very responsive workout.

One-Week Prior Workout Data

Horse NameCourseOverall TimeLast 1FEffortComment
Ecolo AilesRit.坂50.412.4StronglySustained good form
A TraxRit.坂52.112.5RelaxedEnergetic but…
Gabby’s SisterM.W66.011.4RelaxedAmple speed
Culture DayRit.坂56.012.2RelaxedShowing composure
Kurojishi JoeRit.坂53.112.5StronglyUnchanged, progressing
Sunrise AmourRit.坂51.412.1RelaxedBody and movement good
Smart EyeRit.CW82.611.8RelaxedLittle upward trend
Tagano MistRit.CW85.411.3RelaxedProgressing smoothly
ChikappaRit.坂51.713.2PushedDoesn’t move much in training
TO ElvisRit.CW68.011.1PushedProgressing smoothly
Don AmitieRit.坂53.112.3PushedPowerful strides
Nitto BajiM.坂56.712.9PushedBody not sufficiently trimmed
Pod VaderM.坂54.112.1Final pushGood response
Yamanin CherquiRit.CW81.311.7PushedLacking extension

ヤナシ社長(旧:生成系競馬予想)

競馬予想家 (経験20年)

データ関連企業の社長であり、学生時代にはアルゴリズムコンテストで世界3位に入賞したAI技術者。20年以上にわたり統計解析を競馬予想に応用してきた競馬予測家でもあります。生成系AIを駆使した客観的で革新的な競馬予想を提供し、「生成AI競走馬評価」などのコンテンツを通じて、競馬をより深く楽しめるようサポートしています。

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ヤナシ社長(旧:生成系競馬予想)

データ関連企業の社長であり、学生時代にはアルゴリズムコンテストで世界3位に入賞したAI技術者。20年以上にわたり統計解析を競馬予想に応用してきた競馬予測家でもあります。生成系AIを駆使した客観的で革新的な競馬予想を提供し、「生成AI競走馬評価」などのコンテンツを通じて、競馬をより深く楽しめるようサポートしています。

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ヤナシ社長(旧:生成系競馬予想)

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